Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[keysersoze123]

22.5 would be great for moana. But I dont see it gross 60m 3-day with that number.

[BadAtGender]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Right, but the point being 100m less than Frozen for a film that is absolutely up to the highest of WDAS standards certainly seemed logical after that OD. And maybe it will still happen. Frozen's early legs are far from extraordinary, Moana has a chance to beat it there. 

 

True enough. Frozen looked pretty standard for about three weeks. It only turned into a monster when the Christmas holidays hit and it was like "nope, not gonna stop this train". However, part of that was Frozen's ability to become the pop cultural sensation of the season. I don't see Moana getting the same chance, just because Star Wars is Star Wars. Even if I think that Moana can probably weather the competition just fine since its quality is so high.

[Maxmoser3]

Saw the first Bad Santa earlier, very good movie. Very funny, and I enjoyed Billy Bob Thornton and the fat kid. Would like to share more but would like to talk about it on the reviews part. Might try to see Trolls tomorrow or try to see Bad Santa 2 I'm unsure. 

[yjs]

yeah, I remember those like, last week of 2013 and first week of 2014. It was performing batshit crazy, then till like late-February or something it wouldn't just drop normally, remaining in top 5 forever.

Edited November 26, 2016 by yjs

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

True enough. Frozen looked pretty standard for about three weeks. It only turned into a monster when the Christmas holidays hit and it was like "nope, not gonna stop this train". However, part of that was Frozen's ability to become the pop cultural sensation of the season. I don't see Moana getting the same chance, just because Star Wars is Star Wars. Even if I think that Moana can probably weather the competition just fine since its quality is so high.

 

 

not just Star Wars but it will face a strong animation competition in Sing. I dont see it surviving Sing. So tangled legs is the best bet for Moana.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, DamienRoc said:

 

True enough. Frozen looked pretty standard for about three weeks. It only turned into a monster when the Christmas holidays hit and it was like "nope, not gonna stop this train". However, part of that was Frozen's ability to become the pop cultural sensation of the season. I don't see Moana getting the same chance, just because Star Wars is Star Wars. Even if I think that Moana can probably weather the competition just fine since its quality is so high.

Yeah, anything remotely resembling Frozen's late legs are completely out. That was just way too perfect of timing in terms of competition and tying in perfectly with the xmas holiday. That's why I never thought 400 could be in play, or even 350. 

[POTUS 2020]

 

1). Moana  (DIS), 3,875 Theaters / $15.7M Wed. (includes $2.6M previews)/Thurs. $9.9M (-37%)/$22.5M Fri (+127%)/ 3-day cume: $56.4M /5-day: $83M/Wk 1

2). Fantastic Beasts…  (WB), 4,144 theaters / $11.1M Wed./Thurs. $9.6M (-12%)/$18.9M Fri. (+97%)/ 3-day cume: $45.4M (-39%)/5-day: $66.1M/Total: $156.6M/Wk 2

3).Doctor Strange  (DIS), 3,008 theaters (-686) / $3M Wed. / $2.5M (-17%) Thurs./$5.4M Fri (+118%)/3-day cume: $13.7M (-23%) /5-day:$19M/Total cume: $205.5M/Wk 4

4). Allied (PAR), 3,160 Theaters / $2.7M Wed. (includes $600k previews)/ $2.3M (-14%) Thur. $2.3m (-14%)/$4.8M Fri/3-day cume: $12.4M /5-day: $17.1M/Wk 1

5). Arrival  (PAR), 2,442 theaters (+107)/ $2.1M Wed./ $2.2M (+5%) Thurs./$4.5M Fri/3-day cume: $11M (-9%)/5-day: $14.9M/Total:$62.2M/ Wk 3

6.) Trolls  (DWA/20^th Century Fox), 3,378 theaters (-567) / $2.66M Wed. / $1.25M Thurs (-54%)/$4.3M Fri/3-day cume: $10.7M (-39%) /5-day: $14.7M/Total Cume: $135.5M/Wk 4

7). Almost Christmas  (UNI), 1,868 theaters (-511) / $811K Wed. /$1.2M (+36%) Thurs/$2.4M Fri/ 3-day cume: $6.1M (-15%)/5-day: $7.95M/Total: $35.1M/ Wk 3

8). Hacksaw Ridge  (Lionsgate), 2,418 theaters (-465) / $1.1M Wed.  /$1.15M (+5%) Thurs/$2.35M Fri/$5.6M (-15%) 3-day (-55%)/5-day:$7.9M/Total: $52.4M/ Wk 4

 Bad Santa 2  (BG/MX), 2,900 Theaters / $1.58M Wed. (includes $330k previews)/$1.3M Thurs (-16%)/$2.1M Fri/ 3-day cume: $5.6M /5-day: $8.2M/Wk 1

10.) The Edge of Seventeen (STX) 1,945 theaters/ $733K Wed../$528K (-28%) Thurs./$1.1M Fri (+108%)/3-day: $2.9M (-40%)/5-day $4.1M/Total: $10.1M/wk 2

11.)  Rules Don’t Apply (FOX), 2,382 Theaters / $308k Wed. (includes $65k previews)/ $279k (-9%) Thurs./$620K Fri (+122%)/3-day cume: $1.6M /5-day: $2.2M/Wk 1

Notables:

Bleed for This (OR) 1,549 theaters  (0)/$211k Wed./ $187K Thur (-11%)/$346K (+85k)/3-day: $899K(-62%)/3-day: $1.3M/Total cume: $3.8M/Wk 2

Lion (TWC) 4 theaters/$46K Fri/$33,6K PTA/3-day: $135K/Wk 1

Miss Sloane (EUR) 3 theaters/$29K Fri/$26,9K PTA/3-day: $81K/Wk 1

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by POTUS

[MovieMan89]

I will always wonder though what Moana could have done next summer? It's a barren looking summer for animation and the movie fits perfectly with that season. Maybe they really could have had Frozen 2.0 on their hands at the box office. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, POTUS said:

 

1). Moana  (DIS), 3,875 Theaters / $15.7M Wed. (includes $2.6M previews)/Thurs. $9.9M (-37%)/$22.5M Fri (+127%)/ 3-day cume: $56.4M /5-day: $83M/Wk 1

2). Fantastic Beasts…  (WB), 4,144 theaters / $11.1M Wed./Thurs. $9.6M (-12%)/$18.9M Fri. (+97%)/ 3-day cume: $45.4M (-39%)/5-day: $66.1M/Total: $156.6M/Wk 2

3).Doctor Strange  (DIS), 3,008 theaters (-686) / $3M Wed. / $2.5M (-17%) Thurs./$5.4M Fri (+118%)/3-day cume: $13.7M (-23%) /5-day:$19M/Total cume: $205.5M/Wk 4

 

21.8 vs 22.5

18.2 vs 18.9

5.5 vs 5.4

 

not looking good for Dr Strange...

[Jason]

25 minutes ago, yjs said:

I now am legitimately terrified of this possibility of giving that dude satisfaction of calling it right for FB>Moana total.

 

Let's be clear, he won't have called anything right because he said FB would "whip" Moana, which I guess is a bit ambiguous but really ought to be more than beating it by just $10M or $20M. More importantly, his original FB>Moana club that triggered the "debate" in the first place had FB over Moana by $200M.

[yjs]

A new reasonable goal then: $250M it is!

[yjs]

4 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Let's be clear, he won't have called anything right because he said FB would "whip" Moana, which I guess is a bit ambiguous but really ought to be more than beating it by just $10M or $20M. More importantly, his original FB>Moana club that triggered the "debate" in the first place had FB over Moana by $200M.

but....but he said he is taking down names...! I cannot but feel terrified.  

Edited November 26, 2016 by yjs

[ttr]

I will always wonder though what Moana could have done next summer? It's a barren looking summer for animation and the movie fits perfectly with that season. Maybe they really could have had Frozen 2.0 on their hands at the box office. 

I disagree. Why would anyone want to see summer movie during summer? Watching summer movie during winter is terrific "escapism" (or however you spell it). And that is what movies are partly about. I believe there are other reasons that made Frozen what it is. Might be that I am wrong, thou [emoji4]

[DAJK]

These are good numbers almost all across the board. Don't see where the panic is coming from. Sure, the "other 3 openers" are disappointing, but did many people expect a whole lot out of them? The only real disappointment I see relative to hype or expectations is Allied.

[yjs]

Just now, ttr said:

I disagree. Why would anyone want to see summer movie during summer? Watching summer movie during winter is terrific "escapism" (or however you spell it). And that is what movies are partly about. I believe there are other reasons that made Frozen what it is. Might be that I am wrong, thou

maybe we could find out by watching how it performs in the southern hemisphere

[dxmatrixdt]

11.)  Rules Don’t Apply (FOX), 2,382 Theaters / $308k Wed. (includes $65k previews)/ $279k (-9%) Thurs./$620K Fri (+122%)/3-day cume: $1.6M /5-day: $2.2M/Wk 1

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

11.)  Rules Don’t Apply (FOX), 2,382 Theaters / $308k Wed. (includes $65k previews)/ $279k (-9%) Thurs./$620K Fri (+122%)/3-day cume: $1.6M /5-day: $2.2M/Wk 1

I see it more likely at 1.55

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, ttr said:

I disagree. Why would anyone want to see summer movie during summer? Watching summer movie during winter is terrific "escapism" (or however you spell it). And that is what movies are partly about. I believe there are other reasons that made Frozen what it is. Might be that I am wrong, thou

More often than not movies that heavily emphasize an atmosphere of a certain season do best in that respective season. Frozen in the summer would have never worked nearly as well. 

[ttr]

More often than not movies that heavily emphasize an atmosphere of a certain season do best in that respective season. Frozen in the summer would have never worked nearly as well. 

Ok, I assume you have been following BO longer than I have. I stand corrected.

[Heretic]

FB just keeps exceeding expectations. 18.9m. What a beautiful week it has had. 

 

And lol at people panicking about Moana. It's having the 2nd biggest 5-day thanksgiving opening of all time. 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Heretic