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Dementeleus

ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

By Dementeleus, in Numbers and Data

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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I would put Pirates down at like 15-17 among 100m potential openers next year. Gonna need a helluva a marketing campaign from here to do it, the franchise is in pretty dire condition domestically. Logan is a wild card after what a viral hit the trailer has been, but as we know that doesn't necessarily mean everything. Apes I can't see because that would be too drastic of an increase over the previous opening. TF5 you never know, but after TF4 had to crawl and gasp over the 100 line, I highly doubt it. 

 

As for Lego Batman, I'll believe a Batman film opening to less than 100m in the modern era when I see it. 


Is Batman Begins the modern era? Or are we just talking about from here out? 

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted

I really don't get the lowballing of Lego Batman among this forum? I mean Batman is insanely popular among kids, and here's a Batman film even the 5 year old crazed fanboy of the family can see. Not even taking into account any of the teen/adult appeal it's bound to have. I'm still not ruling out 500 DOM. 

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Kalo Global Phenomenon

Kalo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

How about 11 100M OWs?

 

Logan

BATB

F8

GOTG

WW

Mummy

DM3

Spider-Man

Thor

Justice League

Episode 8

 

Not happening, I don't even think The Mummy will do $50m. 

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Jason Box Office Gold

Jason

Posted
Posted (edited)

I don't have the time right now to fully graph out all the data and do the statistics (which, for the record, no one in this thread has done yet despite a claim to the contrary). But a very quick look at a scatterplot of openers from summer months vs. December tells me that once opening weekends exceed $50M or so, the upper limit of the multiplier decreases but the lower limit does not. Admittedly, haven't filtered the data yet to make sure there aren't other confounding variables.

 

That being said, I'm quite sure that Rogue One having a lower multiplier than 3 is unsupported by the data. We simply don't have many December openers over $100M, and extrapolating lower December openings using the relationship from summer films would suggest a multiplier over 3. Directly using the relationship between multipliers and OW from summer films is unsupported because there's very clearly a significant difference between the multiplier of summer films and December films based on openings under $85M (where December data is available).

Edited by Jason
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I really don't get the lowballing of Lego Batman among this forum? I mean Batman is insanely popular among kids, and here's a Batman film even the 5 year old crazed fanboy of the family can see. Not even taking into account any of the teen/adult appeal it's bound to have. I'm still not ruling out 500 DOM. 

How'd those high SLOP and SS predictions work out for you? :redcapes: 

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I really don't get the lowballing of Lego Batman among this forum? I mean Batman is insanely popular among kids, and here's a Batman film even the 5 year old crazed fanboy of the family can see. Not even taking into account any of the teen/adult appeal it's bound to have. I'm still not ruling out 500 DOM. 

 

You can't assume the adult fans will show up. I don't plan on seeing it in theaters and maybe not at all. Still haven't seen Lego Movie. No desire to see it. 

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I'll be watching Rogue one next week, finally!

Can't wait to see Gilroy's directing. I loved his previous works, by the way. :)

Haven't seen it yet myself neither (Wednesday for me), I like Gilroy too - if no one tries to hinder him . for being able to respect and get the source material..., but as far as I understood it here, it is still Edwards work (according to the peoples reactions - or how I understand those).

That seem the main reason for MovieMan89 ranting... I do not know, it feels like a lot and long time.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How'd those high SLOP and SS predictions work out for you? :redcapes: 

Um, fantastic for SLOP? :lol: As far as I know, me and @Christmas Baumer are the only two to predict remotely close to what SLOP actually made. Though I was about 40m too low, so I shoulda went higher. ;)

 

SS I was banking on fantastic WOM, I know stupid for DCEU right? Don't ask me why I thought they could actually pull out a good film. That said, if they had my 450-ish prediction wouldn't have been very far off. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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