Tuesday Numbers : HF:2.5M | LLL:1.63M | RO:1.31M | PD:1.30M | SING:1M | SLEEPLESS:0.77M

[stripe]

Any Wednesday numbers yet? This will surely be the first R1 day under 1M...

 

In its 34th day of run.

 

#notanevent

[Fancyarcher]

17 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That is true, but there is more than one way to skin a cat. Rogue One piled up a crazy amount of money in the first three weekends and Mondays due to holiday boost with adults off work. Even if you go conservative and give it $535m, that is a 3.45 multiplier which is amazing for a 150+ opener. TDK had a 3.37 and that was amazing too, but it got there with the legs spread out a little different from RO.

 

 

TDK was also released in the summer. So it's legs could be considered more impressive. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Are there already threads for The Lure (2016), Raw (2016) and The Discovery (2017)? I'm not seeing them...

[redfirebird2008]

36 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

TDK was also released in the summer. So it's legs could be considered more impressive. 

 

That plus the fact 158 opening in 2008 is equal to 200+ today. A 3.37 multiplier from that kind of opening is nuts.

[Fancyarcher]

46 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That plus the fact 158 opening in 2008 is equal to 200+ today. A 3.37 multiplier from that kind of opening is nuts.

 

 

Yup. It had great legs, even in 2008. Today most blockbusters would kill to have 2.5 multipliers, alone.

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

Yup. It had great legs, even in 2008. Today most blockbusters would kill to have 2.5 multipliers, alone.

 

No kidding. Look at Cap America: Civil War with a 2.28 multi and we thought the WOM on that one was strong enough to at least pull a 2.5 or 2.6 multi, if not something closer to like TDKR at around 2.8 multi. Gives perspective to the 3.45 plus multiplier that Rogue One should end up with. Pretty amazing!

[JohnnyGossamer]

22 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

No kidding. Look at Cap America: Civil War with a 2.28 multi and we thought the WOM on that one was strong enough to at least pull a 2.5 or 2.6 multi, if not something closer to like TDKR at around 2.8 multi. Gives perspective to the 3.45 plus multiplier that Rogue One should end up with. Pretty amazing!

Amazing, amazing multiplier. That said, summer multipliers for movies with sensational WOM have decreased over the past 10 years. And, multiplers in holiday season v. summer season are always far stronger. I'm just as, if not more, impressed with Jurassic World's summer multiplier as I am with Dark Knight's to be honest.

[Fancyarcher]

25 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

No kidding. Look at Cap America: Civil War with a 2.28 multi and we thought the WOM on that one was strong enough to at least pull a 2.5 or 2.6 multi, if not something closer to like TDKR at around 2.8 multi. Gives perspective to the 3.45 plus multiplier that Rogue One should end up with. Pretty amazing!

 

 

Rogue One had Christmas legs to help, of course. Doesn't take away from how well though. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Seems like the weak late legs may be a trend with SW films, but we'll see about VIII next year. The legs overall are totally fine, but I think so much demand was burned off during the holiday period for TFA/RO that the late legs suffer.

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Seems like the weak late legs may be a trend with SW films, but we'll see about VIII next year. The legs overall are totally fine, but I think so much demand was burned off during the holiday period for TFA/RO that the late legs suffer.

TFA and R1 really cleaned up from their OWs on the through the MLK holiday. That will be trend. I mean, even TFA with super, freakish WOM, only grossed $75M of it's $935M total post-MLK weekend. That's a little over 8% of it's total DOM.

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, SWXII said:

 

There needs to be three or four films in this new era to establish any trends. The franchise has had decades to  establish itself domestically. It is only getting started globally and by asking people to jump in mid-series. That is difficult. RO is not nearly as relatable to those not raised on Episode 4 which is 3 generations in the states. But rest assured it gains thousands of fans daily overseas. It will be a long process for those fans to access all the movies to this point but they will.

 

So you are being entirely unreasonable or obtuse. Or trolling.

 

You make it sound like Star Wars is this new IP people in Europe had never heard of before, I'm assuming Europe because Asia seems to have rejected TFA and R1 completely. Star Wars has been here forever and it's had it's fans, however I COMPLETELY reject your notion that Star Wars can only get bigger. It's a two way street and if they release rubbish films they're going to get smaller and smaller audiences.

 

Now back to my original point, TFA made $1.13B Overseas and $936m Domestic. R1 Is looking to make about $530m DOM and slightly under that Overseas.

What happened to the overseas? I can speculate all I like, I don't have to wait for 3/4 films and I'm not being unreasonable or obtuse. It's very possible that the overseas dropped because the casual audience didn't love sws tfa as much as you think. 

 

 

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

La La Land looks like it could be near $110m by the end of the month. $90m by the end of this weekend is likely, and with Oscar nominations, it'll likely receive another big boost. 

[redfirebird2008]

24 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Amazing, amazing multiplier. That said, summer multipliers for movies with sensational WOM have decreased over the past 10 years. And, multiplers in holiday season v. summer season are always far stronger. I'm just as, if not more, impressed with Jurassic World's summer multiplier as I am with Dark Knight's to be honest.

 

Agreed. Movies keep getting more and more frontloaded. The first Spider-Man, TDK, first Avengers, and Jurassic World all had similar total admissions but the frontloading trend is very obvious starting with SM1 at 3.51, TDK at 3.37, TA1 at 3.00, and JW at 3.12 multi.

 

Part of the frontloading trend is due to screen counts increasing on opening weekend. SM1 only played on 7,500. TDK played on 9,300. TA1 and JW both played on around 12,000. TFA played on over 14,000. TFA's screen count should give us an idea of what to expect with big movies going forward.

Edited January 19, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, Spaghetti by the Sea said:

La La Land looks like it could be near $110m by the end of the month. $90m by the end of this weekend is likely, and with Oscar nominations, it'll likely receive another big boost. 

I'm guessing it'll have a nice increase from this weekend to the 1/27-1/29 weekend due to the Oscar nom bump. A dozen+ noms will do that for you.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You make it sound like Star Wars is this new IP people in Europe had never heard of before, I'm assuming Europe because Asia seems to have rejected TFA and R1 completely. Star Wars has been here forever and it's had it's fans, however I COMPLETELY reject your notion that Star Wars can only get bigger. It's a two way street and if they release rubbish films they're going to get smaller and smaller audiences.

 

Now back to my original point, TFA made $1.13B Overseas and $936m Domestic. R1 Is looking to make about $530m DOM and slightly under that Overseas.

What happened to the overseas? I can speculate all I like, I don't have to wait for 3/4 films and I'm not being unreasonable or obtuse. It's very possible that the overseas dropped because the casual audience didn't love sws tfa as much as you think. 

 

 

 

Or maybe because it was a spinoff.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Or maybe because it was a spinoff.

perhaps, but why did that effect overseas more than NA?

[Porthos]

Instead of saying that R1 (or TFA for that matter) underperformed overseas, why not look at it as R1 (and TFA especially) overperforming in North America*?

 

* And the UK, for that matter.

 

Seems to me a reasonable argument could be made that SW is just fine overseas, but its utter dominance of the so-called domestic market makes the overseas totals look weak in comparison.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Instead of saying that R1 (or TFA for that matter) underperformed overseas, why not look at it as R1 (and TFA especially) overperforming in North America*?

 

* And the UK, for that matter.

 

Seems to me a reasonable argument could be made that SW is just fine overseas, but its utter dominance of the so-called domestic market makes the overseas totals look weak in comparison.

 

You can throw Australia in there with America and Britain. It's basically the English speaking "western" countries where Star Wars is by far the biggest franchise. Australia and America should merge, haha. We have a lot in common culturally it seems.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Instead of saying that R1 (or TFA for that matter) underperformed overseas, why not look at it as R1 (and TFA especially) overperforming in North America*?

 

* And the UK, for that matter.

 

Seems to me a reasonable argument could be made that SW is just fine overseas, but its utter dominance of the so-called domestic market makes the overseas totals look weak in comparison.

Especially when it is a spinoff. DOM and the UK are the 2 markets where SW is as big as it gets. RO is gonna get to $1b WW with terrible ER OS.

[George Parr]

34 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You make it sound like Star Wars is this new IP people in Europe had never heard of before, I'm assuming Europe because Asia seems to have rejected TFA and R1 completely. Star Wars has been here forever and it's had it's fans, however I COMPLETELY reject your notion that Star Wars can only get bigger. It's a two way street and if they release rubbish films they're going to get smaller and smaller audiences.

 

Now back to my original point, TFA made $1.13B Overseas and $936m Domestic. R1 Is looking to make about $530m DOM and slightly under that Overseas.

What happened to the overseas? I can speculate all I like, I don't have to wait for 3/4 films and I'm not being unreasonable or obtuse. It's very possible that the overseas dropped because the casual audience didn't love sws tfa as much as you think. 

 

 

You keep repeating this, even after having been shown to be wrong, no idea why. And yes, that kind of makes you unreasonable, because you are ignoring obvious arguments to push a useless one.

 

Rogue One dropped that much because it is a spin-off, not because "people didn't like TFA", which is an absurd statement to say the least. It wouldn't have made that kind of money if it wasn't really popular. As I have mentioned to you before, the start of Rogue One wasn't like any other Star Wars movie in pretty much every country. As an example: Episodes I, II and III started with increasing admission-numbers in Germany, and VII added another bit on top of that. Going from 1.79m to 1.85m, 1.96m and 2.14m for VII. Rogue One only started with 1m. You can find the same thing basically everywhere. If Episodes I and II, which had mixed / split reactions, didn't lower the starts of the following movies in any way, then a better received VII most definately doesn't cause a drop to 50% of the start. If anything, it would have an impact on the legs, not the start, and the legs have generally been better, not worse.

 

Simply put, this movie wasn't treated like a regular Star Wars movie by the audience, and that has nothing whatsoever to do with people "not liking TFA as much", because as shown above, that doesn't have a drastic impact on the start of the movie. You pretty much ignore the very obvious reason for why this happened so you can push your agenda.

 

Asking why the USA is different doesn't really make sense either, because

1) it doesn't run all that different from what some other countries where Star Wars is big deliver

2) we have no idea how regular episodes run compared to spin-offs, because we only had one new regular episode and now one spin-off so far

Edited January 19, 2017 by George Parr