Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[MCKillswitch123]

@The Panda Why do you think Deadpool 2 will outgross Infinity War? That seems extremely far fetched imo.

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@The Panda Why do you think Deadpool 2 will outgross Infinity War? That seems extremely far fetched imo.

I agree. But to be fair, I don't think anyone called Deadpool > BvS 6 months before either released

[MovieMan89]

1. Infinity War - $650m

2. Black Panther - $415m

3. Jurassic World 2 - $400m

4. Mary Poppins Returns - $380m

5. Incredibles 2 - $375m

6. Deadpool 2 - $335m

7. The Grinch - $290m

8. Solo - $270m

9. Fantastic Beasts 2 - $245m

10. Ant Man and the Wasp - $240m

Edited December 31, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Noctis]

I'm scratching my head at the $500m+ predictions for Infinity War. 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

I'm scratching my head at the $500m+ predictions for Infinity War. 

So am I. Even if it gets a $200M+ OW like I’m thinking, it’ll top out at $450M.

[WrathOfHan]

Until/unless the May slate gets another big movie, I don't see IW doing less than a 2.5x. People will need something to see.

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@The Panda Why do you think Deadpool 2 will outgross Infinity War? That seems extremely far fetched imo.

Infinity War, similar to Civil War and AoU, has a cap due to being a crossover movie.  There's a large 'barrier of entry' to seeing that movie, in that you need to see a lot of Marvel movies in order to get whats going on.  There's no reason to expect legs any better than Civil War, as a matter of fact they're likely to be worse (no matter the quality of the movie).

 

Deadpool has room to grow and will be a rated R counter appeal to everything else around it.  It has more room for stronger legs.

[YM!]

42 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Until/unless the May slate gets another big movie, I don't see IW doing less than a 2.5x. People will need something to see.

I can. MCU Avengers team ups nowadays need the GA to watch a certain amount of movies but they’ll be enough curiousity for a big OW ($190M-$210M) but after that it’ll crash.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Infinity War, similar to Civil War and AoU, has a cap due to being a crossover movie.  There's a large 'barrier of entry' to seeing that movie, in that you need to see a lot of Marvel movies in order to get whats going on.  There's no reason to expect legs any better than Civil War, as a matter of fact they're likely to be worse (no matter the quality of the movie).

 

Deadpool has room to grow and will be a rated R counter appeal to everything else around it.  It has more room for stronger legs.

I agree with you for the former but I think Dead2ool will be just as frontloaded. It opens the week before Solo. TI2 will take away PLFs and IMAX, and JW2 will axe its legs.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I agree with you for the former but I think Dead2ool will be just as frontloaded. It opens the week before Solo. TI2 will take away PLFs and IMAX, and JW2 will axe its legs.

I don't think Solo opening before will make it more frontloaded, and I think it's a nice rated R countermarket to TI2 and JW2.  Now, I may be highballing Deadpool 2, it's still pretty early and we don't have a real trailer yet.

[Ethan Hunt]

50 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Until/unless the May slate gets another big movie, I don't see IW doing less than a 2.5x. People will need something to see.

surejan.gif

[YM!]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

I don't think Solo opening before will make it more frontloaded, and I think it's a nice rated R countermarket to TI2 and JW2.  Now, I may be highballing Deadpool 2, it's still pretty early and we don't have a real trailer yet.

True. There’s a chance it can pull a GV2 but outside of P5, it had a barren May. I think Dead2ool will lose a lot of screens and probably be around 2,800-3,200 theaters by the time JWFK opens. There’s also the possibility of having 4 major superhero movies in a two month timeframe can hurt.

[MCKillswitch123]

21 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Infinity War, similar to Civil War and AoU, has a cap due to being a crossover movie.  There's a large 'barrier of entry' to seeing that movie, in that you need to see a lot of Marvel movies in order to get whats going on.  There's no reason to expect legs any better than Civil War, as a matter of fact they're likely to be worse (no matter the quality of the movie).

 

Deadpool has room to grow and will be a rated R counter appeal to everything else around it.  It has more room for stronger legs.

But to counter worse legs than CW, it will undoubtedly have a bigger opening. No chance it opens to less than CW, that's like Half-Blood Prince opening bigger than Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (granted, there's also the Mockingjay comparison, but the two MJ movies had deteriorating wom, whereas the MCU movies are still going strong with audiences.... hell, shouldn't Thor: Ragnarok have awful legs in the precedent that it's the 17th MCU movie, threequel to Thor and follow-up to both Thor and Avengers movies?). And Avengers, as a title/franchise, has bigger appeal than Captain America - and, believe it or not, a lot of GA wasn't aware of Civil War being more Avengers than Cap 3 ft. Iron Man - so I can't see it falling under Civil War either, DOM or WW.

 

Deadpool has room to grow, but I don't see it doing 400+, whereas IW will go over CW imo.

[Apollo2xx]

Summer 2018 is very, very, very crowded. Why don't they delay some movies to August or September? It would give them much better legs

[YM!]

Just now, Apollo2xx said:

Summer 2018 is very, very, very crowded. Why don't they delay some movies to August or September? It would give them much better legs

Studios like summer blockbusters.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

But to counter worse legs than CW, it will undoubtedly have a bigger opening. No chance it opens to less than CW, that's like Half-Blood Prince opening bigger than Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (granted, there's also the Mockingjay comparison, but the two MJ movies had deteriorating wom, whereas the MCU movies are still going strong with audiences.... hell, shouldn't Thor: Ragnarok have awful legs in the precedent that it's the 17th MCU movie, threequel to Thor and follow-up to both Thor and Avengers movies?). And Avengers, as a title/franchise, has bigger appeal than Captain America - and, believe it or not, a lot of GA wasn't aware of Civil War being more Avengers than Cap 3 ft. Iron Man - so I can't see it falling under Civil War either, DOM or WW.

 

Deadpool has room to grow, but I don't see it doing 400+, whereas IW will go over CW imo.

 

Thor's a solo movie, and it's legs aren't stellar but they aren't terrible (showing some frontloadedness, but not to a drastic level like CW.  It's a lot easier to follow for a GA member).  Also, Civil War was advertised on the posted as being Iron Man and Cap, the Avengers stuff was all over the marketing for the movie, audiences were aware.

 

This also isn't DH Part 2, it's more like DH Part 1.  And to follow the MJ comparison, MJ1 decreased from CF, even though CF was really well received.  I also don't think Harry Potter or Hunger Games are the best comps for MCU, in which its films perform differently.  I think a mild increase (around 5-10m) from CW is the best case for Infinity War, I could always be wrong, but I don't think there's any room for Infinity War to grow from CW.  Even taking repeat viewings in account, Part 1 is bound to be a more serious MCU movie (similar to CW) where the heroes don't win (as you need them to win in Part 2), which definitely hurts repeat viewings compared to upbeat movies.

 

I am being optimistic on DP2, but I'll stick with it.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Studios like summer blockbusters.

This is true and a rather stupid bias.  Money is money, I'd rather have It (which released in September) than have any of the Summer blockbusters this year (besides WW, SMH and GOTG2.  Even then, It's just as good, if not better, of a deal due to its low budget)

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

This is true and a rather stupid bias.  Money is money, I'd rather have It (which released in September) than have any of the Summer blockbusters this year (besides WW, SMH and GOTG2.  Even then, It's just as good, if not better, of a deal due to its low budget)

Hell a lot of things this year in the summer would’ve done better outside of the Summer.

 

The troubling thing is the fact that between May 4 to July 27, 5 superhero movies will be released, 4 of them major. Not shouting superhero fatigue but in a year of 11 superhero movies, next year might see a big drop outside of a few (BP, TI2, DP2, and IW) like animation this year.

Edited November 26, 2017 by YourMother

[Ethan Hunt]

We get a Shane Black Predator movie next year. That's all that matters

[YM!]

I can see an upset and see Black Panther being the highest grossing CBM domestically next year.