Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Hell a lot of things this year in the summer would’ve done better outside of the Summer.

 

The troubling thing is the fact that between May 4 to July 27, 5 superhero movies will be released, 4 of them major. Not shouting superhero fatigue but in a year of 11 superhero movies, next year might see a big drop outside of a few (BP, TI2, DP2, and IW) like animation this year.

I'm not expecting great numbers for the other Superhero movies outside those four (and maybe Aquaman, due to its Christmas date).

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I can see an upset and see Black Panther being the highest grossing CBM domestically next year.

That's a possibility, but I think it'll require IW to be poorly received on top of the other leg issues.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I'm not expecting great numbers for the other Superhero movies outside those four (and maybe Aquaman, due to its Christmas date).

I forgot Aquaman add that to the list. Still I wouldn’t be surprised if the others all went sub $170M domestic.

[YM!]

9 hours ago, The Panda said:

Sherlock Gnomes - 26m / 85m

 

More like half of that.

 

9 hours ago, The Panda said:

September

 

The Goosebumps 2 - 31m / 101m

 

Robin Hood - 25m / 66m

 

Smallfoot - 26m / 76m

 

October

 

Venom - 55m / 148.5m

 

First Man - 48m / 211.5m

 

Halloween - 34m / 88m

 

Jungle Book: Origins - 27m / 55m

 

Overlord - 28m / 117.6m

 

November

 

Dark Phoenix - 54m / 132.3m

 

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 35m / 133m

 

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch - 105m / 405.2m

 

Holmes & Watson - 28m / 86m

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald - 81m / 222.7m

 

Widows - 17m / 64m

 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 53m / 201.4m

 

December

 

Animated Spider-Man - 47m / 160m

 

Mortal Engines - 65m / 234m

 

Aquaman - 60m / 226.8m

 

Bumblebee - 26m / 95m

 

Mary Poppins Returns - 67m / 308m

 

Bohemian Rhapsody - 21m / 87m

 

I agree with everything but Aquaman, the visuals can make this a breakout. Poppins is a wild card I can see ITW numbers or TJB numbers. I doubt G2 will make it though.

Edited November 26, 2017 by YourMother

[MCKillswitch123]

28 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Thor's a solo movie, and it's legs aren't stellar but they aren't terrible (showing some frontloadedness, but not to a drastic level like CW.  It's a lot easier to follow for a GA member).  Also, Civil War was advertised on the posted as being Iron Man and Cap, the Avengers stuff was all over the marketing for the movie, audiences were aware.

 

This also isn't DH Part 2, it's more like DH Part 1.  And to follow the MJ comparison, MJ1 decreased from CF, even though CF was really well received.  I also don't think Harry Potter or Hunger Games are the best comps for MCU, in which its films perform differently.  I think a mild increase (around 5-10m) from CW is the best case for Infinity War, I could always be wrong, but I don't think there's any room for Infinity War to grow from CW.  Even taking repeat viewings in account, Part 1 is bound to be a more serious MCU movie (similar to CW) where the heroes don't win (as you need them to win in Part 2), which definitely hurts repeat viewings compared to upbeat movies.

 

I am being optimistic on DP2, but I'll stick with it.

I know, but I am aware that many GA members were still not aware of the Avengers appeal of Civil War. They saw "Captain America" (featuring Iron Man) and that kept them less interested. Anedoctal, but this includes people I know personally, who didn't care that much about Civil War because it was Captain America, not Avengers. 

 

I also know that is more like DH Part 1, but Part 1 of DH still outopened Half-Blood Prince... even if it failed to go over it DOM, but I'm confident in Infinity War managing a strong enough opening to go over CW; and the wom of MJ1 being not so hot (being a slower movie than the others and all, which also was an issue CW had for its audience appeal) probably kept that opening much smaller than expected. I don't know, I just think that IW will be a far more hyped up movie than even Civil War was. I see your reasoning, but this is still the movie that the MCU has been building to for a long time. Avengers meets Guardians meets everyone else meets Thanos and shit. I don't believe yet that something of this scale will open and finish below Civil War.

[YM!]

Speaking of Potter, anyone thinking sub $200M is possible for Beasts 2?

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I know, but I am aware that many GA members were still not aware of the Avengers appeal of Civil War. They saw "Captain America" (featuring Iron Man) and that kept them less interested. Anedoctal, but this includes people I know personally, who didn't care that much about Civil War because it was Captain America, not Avengers. 

 

I also know that is more like DH Part 1, but Part 1 of DH still outopened Half-Blood Prince... even if it failed to go over it DOM, but I'm confident in Infinity War managing a strong enough opening to go over CW; and the wom of MJ1 being not so hot (being a slower movie than the others and all, which also was an issue CW had for its audience appeal) probably kept that opening much smaller than expected. I don't know, I just think that IW will be a far more hyped up movie than even Civil War was. I see your reasoning, but this is still the movie that the MCU has been building to for a long time. Avengers meets Guardians meets everyone else meets Thanos and shit. I don't believe yet that something of this scale will open and finish below Civil War.

It could open over Civil War, yet still finish below.  Its a big event for fans that probably won't mean as much to a GA member.

[FantasticBeasts]

I dont think it would help anyone's analysis to get CW as a comparison for an Aveners movie.

[Nova]

I guess me and the @The Pandaare the only ones on the Deadpool 2 hype train. 

 

Unless its completely shit, I'm all on board for it outgrossing the first (being optimistic here, obviously). So far the marketing for it has been A++++ and I agree with Panda when they say that it's a good counter program to everything else out in theaters. 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

4 hours ago, YourMother said:

Speaking of Potter, anyone thinking sub $200M is possible for Beasts 2?

I am thinking it will increase from FB

Edited November 26, 2017 by Dexter of Suburbia

[Nova]

5 hours ago, YourMother said:

True. There’s a chance it can pull a GV2 but outside of P5, it had a barren May. I think Dead2ool will lose a lot of screens and probably be around 2,800-3,200 theaters by the time JWFK opens. There’s also the possibility of having 4 major superhero movies in a two month timeframe can hurt.

If Deadpool 2 is performing well though, theaters don't have to get rid of it. They can get rid of everything else around it. It's a silly comparison at the moment, but before WW opened, I didn't think it would be able to hold onto as many theaters as did for as long as it did. Granted WW was a monster with insane drops but it was performing better than any of the releases that came after it so theaters stuck with it and got rid of the other movies. Not saying this will happen with Deadpool 2 BUT what I am saying is if it's doing well, theaters wont drop it just because new movies are opening. They could just drop the other films. 

[Mrwick]

9 hours ago, YourMother said:

I can see an upset and see Black Panther being the highest grossing CBM domestically next year.

I cant

[John Rambo]

Wish i could see MI6 in Dom top 10 next year! 

Minimum of 200 must be the base fig for this and its high time MI6 topples MI2 as highest grossing MI movie in Dom.

[Broadwayfreak66]

On 11/26/2017 at 9:13 AM, YourMother said:

Speaking of Potter, anyone thinking sub $200M is possible for Beasts 2?

That's absurd, Jan.

 

No. That goes against the history of the Wizarding World brand and it's totally at odds with the fact that franchise hooks AF are joining next film. So no. It's simply not going to happen. 

 

By the way, they wrapped production on Crimes of Grindelwald for most of the cast yesterday

Edited November 28, 2017 by Broadwayfreak66

[somebody85]

I dunno about numbers but I'd guess:

Avengers: Infinity War (it's going to be the event of the year)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Solo: A Star Wars Story
The Incredibles 2
Deadpool 2
Dr. Seuss The Grinch
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindewald
Ant-Man and The Wasp

Aquaman has a great slot but could be hurt if animated Spiderman ends up being strong. Plus I don't know how audiences will react without the strong female angle Wonder Woman had. I think Ant Man has the edge because it's more family friendly.

I'd love to see some awesome surprises like Ready Player One (if it truly is a return to form for SS) or Halloween. I don't see Halloween being another IT though because we've seen Myers too much and the hook is too similar to H20 so far. A Wrinkle In Time I actually see being another Tomorrowland. All of the trailers have been underwhelming. Venom is hit or miss. If Marvel does have control (don't crucify me, I haven't been following it's production) then I could see it being bigger than Aquaman due to how popular that character is.

Deadpool 2 and Incredibles 2 are both going to be monsters if they are received well going by social media. Deadpool is a cultural icon right now. The Grinch is bound to be huge due to the holidays but the 2003 film really wasn't that far away.

[somebody85]

On 11/26/2017 at 2:46 PM, Nova said:

I guess me and the @The Pandaare the only ones on the Deadpool 2 hype train. 

 

Unless its completely shit, I'm all on board for it outgrossing the first (being optimistic here, obviously). So far the marketing for it has been A++++ and I agree with Panda when they say that it's a good counter program to everything else out in theaters. 

No I'm on it too. I can't see it decreasing if the marketing is just as strong. That character is bigger than a lot of Marvels A listers right now and that's going to be an event too. Everything they release immediately trends. If the film is good (which who knows - it is a sequel), I can easily see it being one of the biggest of the summer regardless of the R rating.

[somebody85]

On 11/26/2017 at 9:59 AM, YourMother said:

More like half of that.

 

I agree with everything but Aquaman, the visuals can make this a breakout. Poppins is a wild card I can see ITW numbers or TJB numbers. I doubt G2 will make it though.

Aquaman is a wild card too. It's the last super hero movie of the year after a year filled with them from a character that doesn't have a lot of popularity outside of big DC fans. It's coming from a brand that hasn't had films with the best reception recently and it could be another situation where families are pulled away by Animated Spiderman, Fantastic Beats and The Grinch (or something else breaking out that we don't know about). Wonder Woman had a big advantage of being the first big summer release of a female superhero directed by a female director. Woman loved that.

Aquaman does have James Wan but this isn't the Conjuring or an established franchise where people automatically show worldwide like Fast & Furious.

Poppins could be a wild card too but if it's done well, nostalgia is a powerful beast. We already saw it with Beauty And The Cash Grab and Disney is probably putting a lot into it by giving it that slot instead of Solo.

[eXtacy]

On 26/11/2017 at 8:37 PM, YourMother said:

So am I. Even if it gets a $200M+ OW like I’m thinking, it’ll top out at $450M.

Eh I cant see it doing less than 450m. The addition of Spiderman and Guardians of the Galaxy alone should make it bigger then Avengers 2. Also Marvel has been on such a hot-streak with all the movies in phase 3.

[fabiopazzo2]

Mary poppins easy over 350M DOM 

Edited November 28, 2017 by fabiopazzo2

[fabiopazzo2]

edit

Edited November 28, 2017 by fabiopazzo2