Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[somebody85]

1 minute ago, eXtacy said:

Eh I cant see it doing less than 450m. The addition of Spiderman and Guardians of the Galaxy alone should make it bigger then Avengers 2. Also Marvel has been on such a hot-streak with all the movies in phase 3.

As far as the GA, it has the buildup of all of these other movies going back to 2012. If they make the story more accessible without having seen all the other previous films, it's going to be a major event seeing all of those characters on the screen at the same time. And I bet they tease major characters getting hurt in the promotional material which will be a draw for anyone who has followed these films. Especially teenagers/kids.

And Spider-Man with all of The Avengers and Guardians Of The Galaxy....I bet the trailer does huge numbers. I just can't see it not being a monster unless the film itself is a failure. I don't think this situation is the same as Civil War. This is not a film that is pitting two heroes against each other in the same year as another movie that did that. This is a movie in which the heroes from every Marvel film team up to take on the grand villain who actually poses a threat.

[somebody85]

On 11/26/2017 at 6:04 AM, MovieMan89 said:

1. Infinity War - $525m

2. Jurassic World 2 - $420m

3. Incredibles 2 - $385m

4. Mary Poppins Returns - $375m

5. Deadpool 2 - $345m

6. Black Panther - $310m

7. The Grinch - $305m

8. Solo - $300m

9. Fantastic Beasts 2 - $250m

10. Ant Man and the Wasp - $245m

I agree with the titles. Same stuff I have, just different order. Could play out anyway but I also see those being the biggest ones outside of any surprise breakouts.

I would love to see Ready Player One be great and be a leggy breakout hit.

[JB33]

10 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

As far as the GA, it has the buildup of all of these other movies going back to 2012. If they make the story more accessible without having seen all the other previous films, it's going to be a major event seeing all of those characters on the screen at the same time. And I bet they tease major characters getting hurt in the promotional material which will be a draw for anyone who has followed these films. Especially teenagers/kids.

And Spider-Man with all of The Avengers and Guardians Of The Galaxy....I bet the trailer does huge numbers. I just can't see it not being a monster unless the film itself is a failure. I don't think this situation is the same as Civil War. This is not a film that is pitting two heroes against each other in the same year as another movie that did that. This is a movie in which the heroes from every Marvel film team up to take on the grand villain who actually poses a threat.

I just had mega deja vu reading this post. It usually lasts a few seconds but this time it continued until I was almost done reading. It was your last sentence that brought me back to the present.

 

Really weird.

[somebody85]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I just had mega deja vu reading this post. It usually lasts a few seconds but this time it continued until I was almost done reading. It was your last sentence that brought me back to the present.

 

Really weird.

I dunno if you were referring to something else but I actually get deja vu all the time. I have derealization issues and it sucks. It can be really frightening at it's worst and there's no cure.

[MCKillswitch123]

I don't see Infinity War falling below 400M, but I also don't expect it to do much more than Ultron at this point. It's the Deathly Hallows effect after all: the more you watch, the more shrinked the audience becomes. It is what it is.

 

I still have JW Fallen Kingdom winning the Summer (and potentially the year) in 2018. I just don't imagine a sub-450M result for the sequel to a 660M juggernaut (unless the movie sucks piss).

 

Here's what I imagine the top 5 for each quarter of the year may look like:

 

Q1 (January-April):

01. Black Panther - 300M+

02. Ready Player One - 200-230M+

03. The New Mutants - 155M

04. Fifty Shades Freed - 100-110M

05. Blockers OR Rampage - 100M (At least one of these is gonna breakout, me thinks)

Q2 (Summer season: May-August):
01. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - 450M

02. Avengers: Infinity War - 425-450M

03. The Incredibles 2 - 385-405M

04. Solo: A Star Wars Story - 375-400M+

05. Deadpool 2 - 315-325M

 

Q3 (Fall and Holidays: September-December):

01. Mary Poppins Returns - 290-330M

02/03. How The Grinch Stole Christmas - 240-280M

02/03. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald - 250-270M

04. Aquaman - 230-250M

05. Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 185-200M

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I don't see Infinity War falling below 400M, but I also don't expect it to do much more than Ultron at this point. It's the Deathly Hallows effect after all: the more you watch, the more shrinked the audience becomes. It is what it is.

 

I still have JW Fallen Kingdom winning the Summer (and potentially the year) in 2018. I just don't imagine a sub-450M result for the sequel to a 660M juggernaut (unless the movie sucks piss).

 

Here's what I imagine the top 5 for each quarter of the year may look like:

 

Q1 (January-April):

01. Black Panther - 300M+

02. Ready Player One - 200-230M+

03. The New Mutants - 155M

04. Fifty Shades Freed - 100-110M

05. Blockers OR Rampage - 100M (At least one of these is gonna breakout, me thinks)

Q2 (Summer season: May-August):
01. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - 450M

02. Avengers: Infinity War - 425-450M

03. The Incredibles 2 - 385-405M

04. Solo: A Star Wars Story - 375-400M+

05. Deadpool 2 - 315-325M

 

Q3 (Fall and Holidays: September-December):

01. Mary Poppins Returns - 290-330M

02/03. How The Grinch Stole Christmas - 240-280M

02/03. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald - 250-270M

04. Aquaman - 230-250M

05. Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 185-200M

I’m thinking for Q1:

Black Panther ($315M)

RP1 ($275M)

WIT ($210M (thinking Lorax like run)

Peter Rabbit ($125M)

50SF ($110M)

 

Q2: 

JWFK ($460M-$485M)

TI2 ($400M-$480M)

IW ($400M-$450M)

DP2 ($300M-$370M)

Solo ($290M-$370M)

 

Q3:

AM2 ($190M-$230M)

MI6 ($160M-$180M)

HT3 ($140M-$170M)

Predator ($100M)

Smallfoot ($80M)

 

Q4:

Grinch ($400M)

Aquaman ($300M-$350M)

MPR ($200M-$300M)

Beasts 2 ($190M-$230M)

Ralph 2 ($180M-$225M)

 

[MCKillswitch123]

26 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I’m thinking for Q1:

Black Panther ($315M)

RP1 ($275M)

WIT ($210M (thinking Lorax like run)

Peter Rabbit ($125M)

50SF ($110M)

 

Q2: 

JWFK ($460M-$485M)

TI2 ($400M-$480M)

IW ($400M-$450M)

DP2 ($300M-$370M)

Solo ($290M-$370M)

 

Q3:

AM2 ($190M-$230M)

MI6 ($160M-$180M)

HT3 ($140M-$170M)

Predator ($100M)

Smallfoot ($80M)

 

Q4:

Grinch ($400M)

Aquaman ($300M-$350M)

MPR ($200M-$300M)

Beasts 2 ($190M-$230M)

Ralph 2 ($180M-$225M)

 

Silly me, I forgot that 1 year has 4 quarters, not 3  

 

In that case:

 

Q1 - Panther > RP1 > 50SF > A Wrinkle In Time > Maze Runner 3

Q2 - JW2 > IW > TI2 > Solo > DP2

Q3 - Ant-Man 2 > Mission: Impossible VI > Hotel Transylvania 3 > Christopher Robin > The Nun

Q4 - MPR > Grinch > FB2 > Aquaman > WIR2

[Lordmandeep]

Unlike this year, the number 1 movie for 2018 is very much up in the air.

 

It could be Infinity Wars, or JW2 or Han Solo if it breaks out like Rogue one or Incredibles 2 if it pulls off a finding Dory. 

[Broadwayfreak66]

On 11/28/2017 at 5:46 AM, MCKillswitch123 said:

I don't see Infinity War falling below 400M, but I also don't expect it to do much more than Ultron at this point. It's the Deathly Hallows effect after all: the more you watch, the more shrinked the audience becomes. It is what it is.

 

I still have JW Fallen Kingdom winning the Summer (and potentially the year) in 2018. I just don't imagine a sub-450M result for the sequel to a 660M juggernaut (unless the movie sucks piss).

 

Here's what I imagine the top 5 for each quarter of the year may look like:

 

Q1 (January-April):

01. Black Panther - 300M+

02. Ready Player One - 200-230M+

03. The New Mutants - 155M

04. Fifty Shades Freed - 100-110M

05. Blockers OR Rampage - 100M (At least one of these is gonna breakout, me thinks)

Q2 (Summer season: May-August):
01. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - 450M

02. Avengers: Infinity War - 425-450M

03. The Incredibles 2 - 385-405M

04. Solo: A Star Wars Story - 375-400M+

05. Deadpool 2 - 315-325M

 

Q3 (Fall and Holidays: September-December):

01. Mary Poppins Returns - 290-330M

02/03. How The Grinch Stole Christmas - 240-280M

02/03. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald - 250-270M

04. Aquaman - 230-250M

05. Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 185-200M

Deathly Hallows Part 2 is the highest grossing film of the franchise 

[MCKillswitch123]

11 minutes ago, Broadwayfreak66 said:

Deathly Hallows Part 2 is the highest grossing film of the franchise 

Deathly Hallows effect in the sense that it's the end of an era and that everything is building to this. Granted, technically Avengers 4 is the end of an era, not IW, but they are building IW up as if it was this grand full circle moment of all the things that Marvel has done with their universe so far.

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, Broadwayfreak66 said:

Deathly Hallows Part 2 is the highest grossing film of the franchise 

Mostly because of the large market growth between/ticket price between the first and the last movie.

 

No Potter movie really made more than the very first one, the last one the only to be about that size but still quite far. And worldwide none came close market share wise.

 

1	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$499,302,900	$317,575,550	11/16/01
2	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$428,549,900	$381,011,219	7/15/11
3	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$403,415,200	$290,013,036	11/18/05
4	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$401,098,800	$261,988,482	11/15/02
5	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$379,011,900	$292,004,738	7/11/07
6	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$361,407,100	$301,959,197	7/15/09
7	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	$358,840,900	$249,541,069	6/4/04
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$330,313,400	$295,983,305	11/19/10

 

 

Domestic box office went from $8,412.5 to $10,174.3 between the 2, a 121% increase (the same increase than between the 2 movie, 317*1.21 would be 384m). And Potter did in 2001, $403.49m 2011 dollar.

 

There is a couple of difference with Potter and the Avengers, Potter feel much more like you need to have seen the previous movies or read the book to be able to follow them (I could be wrong), Avengers can sustain by bringing new audience from non sequel direct entry like Guardian of the Galaxy, Thor 3, etc...

 

[Jonwo]

I can't decide what WB's highest grossing film will be for 2018, last year I don't think anyone thought Wonder Woman or IT would be their highest grossing films of 2017. Currently I'm thinking Aquaman followed by Ready Player One followed by Fantastic Beasts. 

 

 

[Mrwick]

On 29/11/2017 at 8:35 PM, Barnack said:

Mostly because of the large market growth between/ticket price between the first and the last movie.

 

No Potter movie really made more than the very first one, the last one the only to be about that size but still quite far. And worldwide none came close market share wise.

 

1	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$499,302,900	$317,575,550	11/16/01
2	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$428,549,900	$381,011,219	7/15/11
3	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$403,415,200	$290,013,036	11/18/05
4	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$401,098,800	$261,988,482	11/15/02
5	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$379,011,900	$292,004,738	7/11/07
6	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$361,407,100	$301,959,197	7/15/09
7	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	$358,840,900	$249,541,069	6/4/04
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$330,313,400	$295,983,305	11/19/10

 

 

Domestic box office went from $8,412.5 to $10,174.3 between the 2, a 121% increase (the same increase than between the 2 movie, 317*1.21 would be 384m). And Potter did in 2001, $403.49m 2011 dollar.

 

There is a couple of difference with Potter and the Avengers, Potter feel much more like you need to have seen the previous movies or read the book to be able to follow them (I could be wrong), Avengers can sustain by bringing new audience from non sequel direct entry like Guardian of the Galaxy, Thor 3, etc...

 

I feel as if anyone who watched GOTG are already onboard with avengers as it is. I dont see it as a new set of film goers

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Mrwick said:

I feel as if anyone who watched GOTG are already onboard with avengers as it is. I dont see it as a new set of film goers

If you look at the demography metric, GOTG was a bit different (more family and more woman over 25) and that seem to have continued and to go toward Thor 3.

 

PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GOTG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%),  F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian.

 

Civil war:

Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.

 

And both quite different than say spider man:

after guys under 25 (35%), men over 25 (24%) and ahead of women 25+ (19%). 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

If you look at the demography metric, GOTG was a bit different (more family and more woman over 25) and that seem to have continued and to go toward Thor 3.

 

PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GOTG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%),  F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian.

 

Civil war:

Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.

 

And both quite different than say spider man:

after guys under 25 (35%), men over 25 (24%) and ahead of women 25+ (19%). 

These are o/w demos though which don't tell the whole story - especially considering the disparate sizes of the o/w #s. 

 

But looking at them  O/W for CW skewed younger than GOTG2 with 51% over 25 vs 58%.   

 

M/F breakdown for CW & GOTG 1 both wound up at 59/41 while AOU was 58/42 and Avengers - I think around 54/46 (or maybe even closer)

 

The most significant difference in #s seems to be CW with a significantly higher AA & Asian % of audience and how SM skews by far the youngest (naturally) at 43% over and 57% under but pretty much in line with AOU's  55% under 25.

[FantasticBeasts]

50 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I can't decide what WB's highest grossing film will be for 2018, last year I don't think anyone thought Wonder Woman or IT would be their highest grossing films of 2017. Currently I'm thinking Aquaman followed by Ready Player One followed by Fantastic Beasts. 

 

 

Worldwilde it's not gonna be close.

Dom though it's intresting yep. RPO can go very well or very wrong and Aquaman will have to face the general cautiousness that the GA has developed against DCEU. Not sure tbh.

But I feel FB is the safest to reach $200m out of those.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Worldwilde it's not gonna be close.

Dom though it's intresting yep. RPO can go very well or very wrong and Aquaman will have to face the general cautiousness that the GA has developed against DCEU. Not sure tbh.

But I feel FB is the safest to reach $200m out of those.

RPO is Spielberg and I think The Post might end up having a halo effect if it does well awards wise. The second trailer hopefully will be on par with the first.

 

Aquaman should be fine, I think the year long gap will be a good thing, Wonder Woman opened after BvS and WW and still did amazing and the underwater setting is going to be the key to its success. 

[Broadwayfreak66]

On 12/4/2017 at 11:26 AM, Jonwo said:

I can't decide what WB's highest grossing film will be for 2018, last year I don't think anyone thought Wonder Woman or IT would be their highest grossing films of 2017. Currently I'm thinking Aquaman followed by Ready Player One followed by Fantastic Beasts. 

 

 

There's no reason to think Aquaman and especially not RPO would gross higher than The Crimes of Grindelwald. Are you on drugs?

[That One Girl]

15 minutes ago, Broadwayfreak66 said:

There's no reason to think Aquaman and especially not RPO would gross higher than The Crimes of Grindelwald. Are you on drugs?

 

There is, indeed, reason to think that.

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, Broadwayfreak66 said:

There's no reason to think Aquaman and especially not RPO would gross higher than The Crimes of Grindelwald. Are you on drugs?

Domestically, yes.