The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cooper Legion]

I’m very wary of just multiplying by a number in the 4000s with the $/theater number figures from a big chain. Aren’t there a lot of smaller theaters in the 4400 theater figure that simply can’t do that sort of business and contribute a much smaller portion of the OW sales? 

 

Also note that if Sellout increase Thirs by 10% and F by 3%, the Thurs would be 1.1/3.13=35.2% instead of 33.3% of TFS sales. That knocks about 5% off of the estimate.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

12 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Forgive me for being perhaps a little naive, but I don't understand how an average $8/ticket is realistic. 
Considering many of the largest theaters have their minimum tickets at $12-15, with Dolby, IMAX, DBOX, VIP, etc being anywhere from $15-$25.

I understand the logic of average ticket prices, but on opening weekend we can expect all of the specialty shows to be sold out, bumping up the average by quite a bit. Considering the amount of late shows being added as well, it's likely to have quite a high adult ticket share. I would think $10 average would be more realistic. 

 

It is more realistic, but Menor was being conservative. Always better to under shoot than over shoot. 

The average ticket price for Thursday is probably closer to $13. I imagine Friday will be about $11 than Sat and Sunday probably around $9 each. 

Edited April 9, 2019 by VenomXXR

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’m very wary of just multiplying by a number in the 4000s with the $/theater number figures from a big chain. Aren’t there a lot of smaller theaters in the 4400 theater figure that simply can’t do that sort of business and contribute a much smaller portion of the OW sales? 

 

Also note that if Sellout increase Thirs by 10% and F by 3%, the Thurs would be 1.1/3.13=35.2% instead of 33.3% of TFS sales. That knocks about 5% off of the estimate.

 

Yes there are smaller theaters of course that skew down, but bigger that skew it up. For instance, his per theater screening average for Thursday is 13.83 showings. The average for the 12 theaters I'm tracking total count for is over 26 (313/12). So it's all relative. 

Also, even if you knock it down to 3000 theaters at $8 a ticket, it's still $95m. I'm confident in saying it's at least $120m. 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’m very wary of just multiplying by a number in the 4000s with the $/theater number figures from a big chain. Aren’t there a lot of smaller theaters in the 4400 theater figure that simply can’t do that sort of business and contribute a much smaller portion of the OW sales? 

 

Also note that if Sellout increase Thirs by 10% and F by 3%, the Thurs would be 1.1/3.13=35.2% instead of 33.3% of TFS sales. That knocks about 5% off of the estimate.

Yeah, I would agree, but the other way I estimated by using the Thursday ratios seems to give a similarly high result. So I think it's almost definitely over $100 million (unless something about my sample was really unrepresentative). And @VanillaSkies I was purposely being extremely conservative with the estimates in order to give a low bound, it's easy for me to get overhyped so I've been trying to put my projections low.

[Cooper Legion]

I expect a press release when the $$ of presales is past TFA to set a new record, but maybe not.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Premium George said:

Wait, so that assumed number of 400k was way off. Fuck pulse for crashing. We could have seen a number above million.

The pulse number is complete ticket sold by Fandango in 24 hours? I don't believe that. Its too low to be true. ffs Black Panther sold just 67k tickets on Thursday previews, that's barely $670k.

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

The pulse number is complete ticket sold by Fandango in 24 hours? I don't believe that. Its too low to be true. ffs Black Panther sold just 67k tickets on Thursday previews, that's barely $670k.

 

 

No, it’s just a random subset and counts transactions rather than individual tickets.

[Cooper Legion]

On 4/8/2019 at 5:08 PM, Thanos Legion said:

“But may be a bit short” Lol, nope.

 

A very commanding performance from Endgame 18 days before release against the 4th day of a 50M opener.  Wish we had TFA data to compare to, but that was in the nuked version of the thread, right? Could dig up some TLJ days I guess. Us was in 5th 2 hours ago, so I think it’s just barely behind CM. 

17:00 Pacific Time

1	32.5%	Avengers: Endgame
2	22.2%	Shazam!
3	9.7%	Pet Sematary
4	6.4%	Dumbo
5	6.0%	Captain Marvel

17:00 Pacific, 4/9/2019 (Discount Tuesday)

1	23.4%	Shazam!
2	18.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	12.2%	Pet Sematary
4	8.1%	Dumbo
5	7.3%	Captain Marvel

I’m not 100% sure this will be the last update tonight, if there’s one more I’ll edit.    

 

Remaining at more than 75% of Shazam even on Tuesday seem pretty good. Don’t have much else to say about today.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific, 4/9/2019 (Discount Tuesday)

1	23.4%	Shazam!
2	18.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	12.2%	Pet Sematary
4	8.1%	Dumbo
5	7.3%	Captain Marvel

I’m not 100% sure this will be the last update tonight, if there’s one more I’ll edit.    

 

Remaining at more than 75% of Shazam even on Tuesday seem pretty good. Don’t have much else to say about today.

 

Today will probably be the last time Endgame isn't in first? 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

So about $5mn presales on Monday going by Movie tickets ratio to Shazam & PS (its actually $6mn, rounding down).

 

 

That would mean $65-70mn total ($70mn+ actually, but rounding down being conservative).

 

Even if go by pulse, its still similar number, more actually. 

 

Rough numbers for daily PS so far

30 15 7 13 (FSS) 5.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Today will probably be the last time Endgame isn't in first? 

 

I expect my end of day post on Friday and Saturday will have it in 2nd place, but other than those two guessing so. And who knows, Shazam might miss on Fri (or even Sat).

[Cappoedameron]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Also it's gonna be annoying when tracking next week for Detective Pikachu shows a $60-70M opening (which would still be a great number for it) and a lot of people start calling it "Detective Flopachu," most likely without irony. 

Aqua Man tracked for a 59 M OW and that clearly was not a flop. Hype has only increased for this movie, I'm expecting 100M + OW. 

 

And we all know Ryan Reynolds marketing for this movie is gonna kickstart soon and we all know he is a marketing machine.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So about $5mn presales on Monday going by Movie tickets ratio to Shazam & PS (its actually $6mn, rounding down).

 

 

That would mean $65mn total ($70mn+ actually, but rounding down being conservative).

 

Even if go by pulse, its still similar number, more actually. 

Alright, how does this sound

 

April 2 - 8 = $65m

April 9, 10, 11 (TWTh) = $13m

April 12, 13, 14 (FSS) = $15m

April 15, 16, 17, 18 (M-Th) = $22m

April 19, 20, 21 (FSS) = $22m

April 22 (M) = $8m
April 23 (T) = $10m

April 24 (W) = $15m

 

Total through April 24 = $170m in presales

[FlashMaster659]

Last 18 hrs on Fandango adds up to 15,190 for Endgame

[charlie Jatinder]

Can anyone list daily pulse numbers for Shazam, Endgame and Dumbo (April 2-5). Thanks.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Last 18 hrs on Fandango adds up to 15,190 for Endgame

 

28219 for Endgame yesterday vs 10828 for Infinity War at the same comparative days remaining

 

Need to get to 22595 today for the same percentage (IW 8670)

[Menor the Destroyer]

The revelation that Pulse is merely a subset does clear up one source of confusion I had, which was why movies with 2 weeks left would see drops on Discount Tuesday/weekends just because other films sold more. But if it's a subset that takes the same raw amount of tickets and other films just took more of those spots, suddenly that makes a lot more sense. But, since we normally use Pulse for comps and not raw data, it shouldn't really make a difference.

[Cap]

Cinemagic - 3 Southern Maine Theaters - 4/9/2019 Seat Count

 

Cinemagic	4/2/2019 Sold	4/9/2019 Sold	Total	Current %
IMAX
Thursday	463	582	759	76.67
Friday	510	644	1753	36.73
Saturday	377	502	1720	29.18
Sunday	167	298	1607	18.54
Sub Total	1517	2036	5839	34.86
Recliners
Thursday	227	237	307	77.19
Friday	163	242	721	33.56
Saturday	109	239	772	30.95
Sunday	41	70	665	10.52
Sub Total	521	788	2188	36.01
Stadium
Thursday	448	607	1128	53.81
Friday	95	248	3384	7.32
Saturday	33	96	3384	2.83
Sunday	8	47	3176	1.47
Sub Total	584	998	11072	9.01
Total	2622	3822	19099	20.01

 

Notes:

- The Stadium Theater is once again pulling everything down.  Why go there when you can go to the nice recliners?

- Considering the IMAX just went to reserve seating, this is actually good for our area.  We are not pre-sale heavy.   I believe I have AIW number, I will try to dig them up for the next update.

 

Upcoming:

- Lincoln Center tomorrow

- AMC 25 day after

 

I also plan to do a Week One Round Up of what everyone posted for theater counts. There's been a lot of good activity, so I think we should have a Master Post for prosperity.  

[FlashMaster659]

Looks like Endgame should end at around 24k on Fandango for today

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Looks like Endgame should end at around 24k on Fandango for today

 

If that’s the case, it would actually be a larger % increase over the equivalent Tuesday of Infinity War than yesterday was. Made even crazy by being discount Tuesday.