The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

Even if it was just AMC, the sales being this slow and minor don't suggest the big break-out a few people were suggesting. Not saying DetPik will do bad or anything but it won't be this Endgame-killer or 200+ OW domestic movie.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Ugh. 70-75m or so for DP which I think its headed to would be so good but at some point the jokes turned into serious predictions. Now it will be seen as disappointing. I even checked out some reddit threads and theirs are just as crazy

Edited April 10, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Mulder said:

From your (Imo) expert tracking opinion do you think this'll be more kid/family focused and therefore walk-up based?

Far from an expert, but yes I think this will be pretty walk-up based.  The trailer views says there's interest out there.  The very very VERY early initial pre-sales suggest there isn't any sort of rush yet to buy tickets.

 

Might pick up a bit closer to release. We ARE 30 days out, after all.  From what I recall, vaguely, Finding Dory really didn't start selling until about two weeks out.  And that it did was a major indicator that it was going to be a beast of a family film.

 

No idea about Incredibles 2.

14 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I know it may be a big ask, but would you consider doing like a bi-weekly track? Not daily but at least just something to give us a taste? 

 

I understand if not, especially when Endgame is in town.

 

We'll see.

13 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

That shade. 🤣

Not shade, really. Just a neutral observation. Honest.

8 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

The movie theaters I consecutively go to are not selling tickets for the movie yet. Just AMC cause I think they're the ones that will get the "cards with the movie" deal.

It's at Cinemark, Regal, and Studio Movie Grill locally (three showings each seems to be the norm except for SMG which has two).  Not up yet at the Cinema West locations, though I haven't checked the corp website yet.

[Eric S'ennui]

Also, maybe this is just my area, but it's not only AMC theaters having tickets available. AMC-heavy sure, but there are a few Regals and Studio Movie Grills and Movie Taverns with showtimes up around me.

[Cappoedameron]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Even if it was just AMC, the sales being this slow and minor don't suggest the big break-out a few people were suggesting. Not saying DetPik will do bad or anything but it won't be this Endgame-killer or 200+ OW domestic movie.

Well it will be the Endgame killer cause it will dethrone Endgame. Long range tracking predicts 90M OW, that's only gonna go up as marketing increases and we all know how Ryan is at marketing.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Ugh. 70-75m or so for DP which I think its headed to would be so good but at some point the jokes turned into serious predictions. Now it will be seen as disappointing. I even checked out some reddit threads and theirs are just as crazy

I think that's undershooting it considering how many families and kids will be going to this. I'd wait until we get closer to start giving numbers that low if things don't pick up like Porthos said.

[Mulder]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

Well it will be the Endgame killer cause it will dethrone Endgame. Long range tracking predicts 90M OW, that's only gonna go up as marketing increases and we all know how Ryan is at marketing.

I mean yeah eventually Endgame won't be #1 at the box office that's just how these things go but a lot of people were saying it would cut off Endgame's legs and going off of the numbers we have right now ((Not to say that can't change later)) that's not happening.

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

Well it will be the Endgame killer cause it will dethrone Endgame. Long range tracking predicts 90M OW, that's only gonna go up as marketing increases and we all know how Ryan is at marketing.

No, what's going to happen is Endgame being the first movie to have a 3rd weekend over 100mil!

[Nero]

@Deep Wang any update on AEG ?

[Cappoedameron]

Spoiler

 

Far from an expert, but yes I think this will be pretty walk-up based.  The trailer views says there's interest out there.  The very very VERY early initial pre-sales suggest there isn't any sort of rush yet to buy tickets.

 

Might pick up a bit closer to release. We ARE 30 days out, after all.  From what I recall, vaguely, Finding Dory really didn't start selling until about two weeks out.  And that it did was a major indicator that it was going to be a beast of a family film.

 

No idea about Incredibles 2.

 

Let's not forget though that this footage was dropped by Ryan Reynolds not the company. If it was Ryan and the company both would have posted it and it would be on the official WB channel as well. Like the first and second trailer were. This is more like that video of Ryan getting into the role of DP.

 

Maybe WB has a final trailer in mind for Pika that will drop soon.

 

If they were gonna announce tickets on sale I'd expect the company would drop the trailer, just like Marvel does with their movies.

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I think that's undershooting it considering how many families and kids will be going to this. I'd wait until we get closer to start giving numbers that low if things don't pick up like Porthos said.

Right now nothing has pointed to higher than that BOP has that as the lower end of the range and initial presales are low which goes against everything propels were saying about the fanboys locking in.

 

I’m curious as to why you would point to higher than that other than “OH MY GOD POKÉMON”? Pokémon is not even close to what it once was for kids nowadays. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

If they were gonna announce tickets on sale I'd expect the company would drop the trailer, just like Marvel does with their movies.

There hasn't been an official announcement from WB that tickets are on sale?

Weird.

[Cappoedameron]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

There hasn't been an official announcement from WB that tickets are on sale?

Weird.

Marvel always releases a final trailer with the announcement that tickets are on sale. For this only Ryan did. WB Youtube Official channel did not post it.

 

It's why I'm comparing this to the video of Ryan getting into the role of Pikachu, which he posted alone.

 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Marvel always releases a final trailer with the announcement that tickets are on sale. For this only Ryan did. WB Youtube Official channel did not post it.

 

It's why I'm comparing this to the video of Ryan getting into the role of Pikachu, which he posted alone.

 

 

Well, there isn't always a trailer drop when tickets are announced on sale for other movies.  TFA and TLJ did it, sure.  R1 and Solo didn't though.  Can't recall for DP2 or JW2.

[TalismanRing]

38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Okay, a couple of places don't have it yet, but it's fairly apparent (along with the Fandango info I already saw earlier) that this is gonna play like a traditional family film when it comes to pre-sales.  So far at least.

 

Unless I see something that radically changes my mind in the next 12 hours, I'll probably just go ahead and start tracking Pika Pika closer to release.  Maybe in a couple of weeks, right after Endgame is done. Maybe just before EG is done. We'll see.

 

Coz, like, it just ain't worth my time to track something that small this far out. 

NOT AN EVENT

 

 

 

 

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Right now nothing has pointed to higher than that BOP has that as the lower end of the range and initial presales are low which goes against everything propels were saying about the fanboys locking in.

 

I’m curious as to why you would point to higher than that other than “OH MY GOD POKÉMON”? Pokémon is not even close to what it once was for kids nowadays. 

Pokemon GO brought a lot of recognition to the brand and it's still pretty far away. I'm not saying it's going to blow up or anything but 80-110 is the range I'm going for right now and I don't think it's that crazy. Shazam beat tracking by about 10 million overall and that sounds about right. Also BOP's high is 90 million as well so I don't see the need to jump to it's lowest.

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Marvel always releases a final trailer with the announcement that tickets are on sale. For this only Ryan did. WB Youtube Official channel did not post it.

 

It's why I'm comparing this to the video of Ryan getting into the role of Pikachu, which he posted alone.

 

 

Disney=/=WB. They have different strategies. Ryan Reynolds has a lot of followers on twitter so using him to announce the ticket sales was their marketing choice. There's not going to be a final trailer.

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

There hasn't been an official announcement from WB that tickets are on sale?

Weird.

There was-

 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NOT AN EVENT

 

 

 

 

I'll send my application to work at Deadline later tonight. 

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Well it will be the Endgame killer cause it will dethrone Endgame. Long range tracking predicts 90M OW, that's only gonna go up as marketing increases and we all know how Ryan is at marketing.

That’s not official tracking, official tracking is next week.

[XXR vs XXR]

This thread is about to hit a milestone of its own... 🥳

 

#1000