The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MovieMan89]

While it used to be the trend for big box office breakouts to decrease with the sequel, the trend this decade has been increases. If 1984 is well received, I’m sure it’s increasing. Above 500 would be unlikely though.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The schedule is dead next holiday, especially for families. Granted things could still change, but as it is Cruella is the family film of Xmas by default. Prob 250ish.

I can’t see more than MPR numbers even with the lacking slate, as I imagine kids will dig it as much as MPR/Dumbo/CR and not only does it have family competition from Croods 2 (though I doubt it does over $100M), November is stocked with family films such as Lin Manuel Miranda’s Vivo, Fox’s Ron Gone Wrong, Paramount’s Clifford the Government Expirement, and Disney’s own Dragon Empire.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

2.6 for Hotel and 2.2 for Grinch, I think the PS for Hotel Transylvania may be slightly skewed down by the sneak previews it had.

On second thoughts Pets 2 should finish higher. Most of the preview ticket sales for those 2 movies were in the last day. This could finish above 10K.

 

Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    186    2018-11-04
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    438    2018-11-05
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    497    2018-11-06
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    1227    2018-11-07
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    4432    2018-11-08
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    17    2018-11-09
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    7584    
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    TOTAL    7584    

 

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    89    2018-07-08
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    268    2018-07-09
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    370    2018-07-10
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    1105    2018-07-11
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    4548    2018-07-12
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    7    2018-07-13
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    6713   

[DisposedData]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

While it used to be the trend for big box office breakouts to decrease with the sequel, the trend this decade has been increases. If 1984 is well received, I’m sure it’s increasing. Above 500 would be unlikely though.

I dont think so. It's based off one of the older Disney IPs and Jungle Book has been the only one that's broken out of those. Unless its a 90s/Renaissance Disney remake, I'm expecting mediocre performances.

[doublejack]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dark Phoenix at the same point as KOTM in this update 

Thurs 6379

Fri 4653

Sat 3856

Sun 1651

 

Just based on these ratios gives 4.5-9.4-13.4-10.7 or a $38 million weekend. 

I think the early shows were sparsely attended, but KotM did open at 4pm.

[YM!]

Just now, DisposedData said:

I dont think so. It's based off one of the older Disney IPs and Jungle Book has been the only one that's broken out of those. Unless its a 90s/Renaissance Disney remake, I'm expecting mediocre performances.

He was talking about WW1984.

[Alli]

WW was such a word of mouth smash, i see no reason why it would decrease. I'm sticking by my  200/500  prediction

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

WW was such a word of mouth smash, i see no reason why it would decrease. I'm sticking by my  200/500  prediction

I don’t see how it’d get anywhere near a $200M OW.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

On second thoughts Pets 2 should finish higher. Most of the preview ticket sales for those 2 movies were in the last day. This could finish above 10K.

 

Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    186    2018-11-04
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    438    2018-11-05
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    497    2018-11-06
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    1227    2018-11-07
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    4432    2018-11-08
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    17    2018-11-09
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    THU    7584    
Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)    2018-11-08    TOTAL    7584    

 

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    89    2018-07-08
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    268    2018-07-09
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    370    2018-07-10
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    1105    2018-07-11
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    4548    2018-07-12
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    7    2018-07-13
Hotel Transylvania 3 Summer Vacation    2018-07-12    THU    6713   

Realized that the daily tracker gives info per day (big facepalm). Hotel was 759 after its Monday. Grinch was 1618 after its Monday accounting for 3D.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Menor

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I can’t see more than MPR numbers even with the lacking slate, as I imagine kids will dig it as much as MPR/Dumbo/CR and not only does it have family competition from Croods 2 (though I doubt it does over $100M), November is stocked with family films such as Lin Manuel Miranda’s Vivo, Fox’s Ron Gone Wrong, Paramount’s Clifford the Government Expirement, and Disney’s own Dragon Empire.

Cruella's appeal should extend beyond families given the presence of Emma Stone (adult women in particular should make for a decent turnout). I doubt it'll be flashy enough to reach the heights of their biggest remake hits (especially if the reported premise is accurate) but a total similar to Cinderella doesn't sound like that big of a stretch given the time of year.

[DisposedData]

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

He was talking about WW1984.

Yeah. Meant to reply to his Cruella post.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t see how it’d get anywhere near a $200M OW.

WW was not just a cbm, it transcended to the general audience. If Captain Marvel opened to 153M, the possibilities are endless for WW. Captain Marvel is ending its run with 425M,  WW will surely make 500M. The anticipation is big...so 200M OW is not that huge

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Cruella's appeal should extend beyond families given the presence of Emma Stone (adult women in particular should make for a decent turnout). I doubt it'll be flashy enough to reach the heights of their biggest remake hits (especially if the reported premise is accurate) but a total similar to Cinderella doesn't sound like that big of a stretch given the time of year.

Still think the allure of West Side Story will hurt it, as they both compete for the female demographic. Especially the older women demographic. 

 

My guess is around $25M/$35M/$185M DOM.

[Alli]

Cruella -hmmm...i don't see it making more than 150M. Just a hunch

[Alli]

West Side Story is the big event of that holiday. 200M+

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

West Side Story is the big event of that holiday. 200M+

Do not put that evil on BOT.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

WW was not just a cbm, it transcended to the general audience. If Captain Marvel opened to 153M, the possibilities are endless for WW. Captain Marvel is ending its run with 425M,  WW will surely make 500M. The anticipation is big...so 200M OW is not that huge

It's come to this now, has it?

 

Yep.  Fire up that coffin and throw it and me in to the incinerator.  Just do me a favor and scatter my ashes over the Presidio so I can rest in peace at LFL headquarters.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

WW was not just a cbm, it transcended to the general audience. If Captain Marvel opened to 153M, the possibilities are endless for WW. Captain Marvel is ending its run with 425M,  WW will surely make 500M. The anticipation is big...so 200M OW is not that huge

It’s not increasing about 100% from WW1 to 2 on OW, as we learned with Shazam, Ant-Man and The Wasp and likely Dark Phoenix not all CBMs are created equal, besides CM benefited from the IW/Endgame hype as well as being the first female MCU solo. The DCEU doesn’t have the same symbiosis that helps Marvel. 

 

Besides not all juggernauts mean annincrease in order, look at AOU, JWFK, Jedi and Pets 2 also. I think WW1984 will likely own 2020 but my guess is more of a jump from AM1/2 or GOTG1/2 than Thor 2 to Ragnarok.

[YM!]

Just now, filmlover said:

Do not put that evil on BOT.

If evil like Illumination, and the majority of live action remakes can succeed, I have no reason to see why this won’t especially considering how big musicals are now as well as that Disney power, so that evil will help it succeed. 

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It’s not increasing about 100% from WW1 to 2 on OW, as we learned with Shazam, Ant-Man and The Wasp and likely Dark Phoenix not all CBMs are created equal, besides CM benefited from the IW/Endgame hype as well as being the first female MCU solo. The DCEU doesn’t have the same symbiosis that helps Marvel. 

 

Besides not all juggernauts mean annincrease in order, look at AOU, JWFK, Jedi and Pets 2 also. I think WW1984 will likely own 2020 but my guess is more of a jump from AM1/2 or GOTG1/2 than Thor 2 to Ragnarok.

It's a feeling i have. Maybe i'm too hyped, but those legs were fantastic. People loved WW and the anticipation is crazy high