The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I wouldn't rule out 13m on the lower end, especially if Sacto is over-performing.

 

To put it a different way, for TS4 to hit 15m to 16m it needs to keep keeping pace with Fallen Kingdom locally.  And Fallen Kingdom had an INSANE MTuWTh.

 

So if TS4 keeps mimicking JW:FK, then sure, 14m to 15m is on the table.  There's no guarantee it will keep mimicking JW:FK though.  Locally, that is.

yes of course ...

 

 

[Porthos]

The other factor to consider, and I mentioned this before, when looking at pure ticket sales versus JW:FK (which I am ONLY using since it was heavily walkup based and I presume TS4 will be as well) is that the PLFs showings are not selling in huge numbers for TS4.  Understandably so, IMO.

 

So this will depress the comp against it, IMO.  So even if TS4 follows JW:FK and explodes on MTuWTh, it'll probably be less due to the under-performance of PLFs as well as more children tickets being sold.

 

When it comes right down to it, I personally don't have any really good comps.  Pika Pika had a 4pm start and practically no PLFs.  Aladdin over-performed locally.  KotM is... Well, KotM.

 

And unfortunately my so far best one-to-one comp of JW:FK has... issues, as mentioned above.

 

Personally I might just set Aladdin as a lower bound (as an example of Sacto over-performing) and Fallen Kingdom as an upper-bound.  As of last night that gives a range of 12.8m to 15.7m.  Factor in PLF and kid tickets against JW2 and call the current range 13m to 15m. 

 

Sounds good enough for now.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

The other factor to consider, and I mentioned this before, when looking at pure ticket sales versus JW:FK (which I am ONLY using since it was heavily walkup based and I presume TS4 will be as well) is that the PLFs showings are not selling in huge numbers for TS4.  Understandably so, IMO.

 

So this will depress the comp against it, IMO.  So even if TS4 follows JW:FK and explodes on MTuWTh, it'll probably be less due to the under-performance of PLFs as well as more children tickets being sold.

 

When it comes right down to it, I personally don't have any really good comps.  Pika Pika had a 4pm start and practically no PLFs.  Aladdin over-performed locally.  KotM is... Well, KotM.

 

And unfortunately my so far best one-to-one comp of JW:FK has... issues, as mentioned above.

 

Personally I might just set Aladdin as a lower bound (as an example of Sacto over-performing) and Fallen Kingdom as an upper-bound.  As of last night that gives a range of 12.8m to 15.7m.  Factor in PLF and kid tickets against JW2 and call the current range 13m to 15m. 

 

Sounds good enough for now.

we will see i personally have it at 13-16, fingers crossed

[Porthos]

Just now, john2000 said:

we will see i personally have it at 13-16, fingers crossed

I'm not going to strenuously argue against 16m.   Just throwing out the things to consider when it comes to the upper end of the current trajectory.

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

we will see i personally have it at 13-16, fingers crossed

agreed with both of you .. $13 to $16 ....

[superduperm]

Those pre-sale numbers are concerning to me. 60% of I2's OW would be equivalent to TS3's OW and that would make me very sad.

 

I know this is a fourth installment and Pixar is done with sequels for the time being, so really all I should care about is how good the movie itself is. Still, hopefully pre-sales pickup and walkups are strong.

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	92	9969	12465	20.02%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:           1

Total Seats Sold Today:                  188

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.1953x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 5 days before release.

1.8809x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 5 days before release.

2.1010x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 5 days before release.

 

T-5:

Pika        113 tickets sold [0 sellouts/62 showings   |     6327/7464 seats left    |  15.23% sold]

Aladdin    66 tickets sold [0 sellouts/81 showings   |  10066/11393 seats left    |  11.65% sold]

KotM      102 tickets sold [0 sellouts/98 showings   |  12552/13740 seats left    |   8.65% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0434x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 5 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-5:

JW2            124 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |    9053/11263 seats left  | 19.62% sold]

TS4 (JW)     159 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |    8488/10794 seats left  | 21.36% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-16 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	2416	2796	13.59%

* NOTE:  One theater adjusted the available seats resulting in a net gain of three seats.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      11

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.7851x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 16 days before their showings.

 

T-16 days:

FB2 sneaks       4 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 915/1399 seats left  |  34.60% sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-14 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	18.859%	13303	Men in Black International [combined]
2	14.632%	10321	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.492%	8106	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	08.112%	5722	Rocketman
5	06.826%	4815	Shaft (2019)
6	06.611%	4663	Dark Phoenix
7	05.362%	3782	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	05.250%	3703	Late Night (2019)
9	04.830%	3407	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
10	04.100%	2892	Toy Story 4 [combined]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-15 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	16.822%	12356	Men in Black International [combined]
2	13.983%	10271	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.643%	8552	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	09.197%	6755	Rocketman
5	07.062%	5187	Dark Phoenix
6	06.817%	5007	Shaft (2019)
7	05.996%	4404	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	05.856%	4301	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	04.841%	3556	Late Night (2019)
10	04.058%	2981	Avengers Endgame (2019)
11	03.555%	2611	Toy Story 4 [combined]

[Porthos]

Before people comment/ask, it's BD-1 from the upcoming Jedi: Fallen Order game and I won't hear a single word against this cutie.   

 

[Eric Prime]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Toy Story 4	1,724	2,015	3,101	3,145	2,762	2,471
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days
Annabelle 3	66	55	81	53	56	60
	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days	11 days
Spider-Man FFH	907	803	1,192	1,064	941	598
	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days	18 days	17 days

 

 

Toy Story

Day 18-6

66% of Incredibles 2 (121M)

135% of Aladdin (123.9M 3-Day, 158.2M 4-Day)

428% of Lego 2 (146M)

320% of Dumbo (147.2M)

268% of Dragon 3 (147.3M)

276% of Shazam! (147.8M)

 

Day 24-6

259% of Shazam! (138.5M)

82% of Incredibles 2 (149.9M)

302% of Dragon 3 (166M)

 

So I said yesterday, I would have been very confident in TS4 opening super big if it increased on Saturday. That did not happen, but that doesn't mean we should start the doom and gloom party just yet. Just about all of the comps saw an increase, even if slight, and it still held pretty well Friday to Saturday either way. But yeah, it is what it is.

 

The only other thing of note is the division for the first set of comps. Incredibles 2 and Aladdin are arguably the best comps to use with Toy Story (yes, I know about Memorial Day), but they have it in the low 120s. Then you have the remaining comps, which weren't as pre-sales driven and arguably don't work as well as the previous two, and they have it somewhere in the 140s. So this begs the question: Do we go pessimistic and believe the fan-driven, nostalgic Disney properties create a clear path? Or do we go optimistic, and believe in the hyped, but nowhere near as buzzy average openers? Or perhaps do we say rave reviews, no competition, and Mickey's Law will help make the movie soar to these heights? I don't know an exact answer, but it will be something interesting to talk about in the next couple days.

 

Annabelle

Day 22-11

15% of Us (10.6M 3-Day, 12.7M first 5 days)

40% of The Nun (21.4M 3-Day, 24.8M first 5 days)

372% of The First Purge (64.7M 3-Day, 116.4M 5-Day)

 

Cumulative

271% of The First Purge (47.1M 3-Day, 84.8M 5-Day)

 

I thought The First Purge would add more clarity, but it ended up making things a bit worse. Purge really only sold a handful of tickets until a couple days before premiere. I guess it's not as fan-driven as one might expect? Anyways, I'm sure some people might be concerned about the drop from both Us and The Nun, but it's important to remember that we're comparing a movie on a Saturday to two movies on a Monday at the same point in time. That's a pretty key difference when it comes to presales and when things get bought and stuff. So yeah, this is a pretty hard film to track at the moment, but hopefully things become more clear in the coming days.

 

Far From Home

Day 29-17

13% of Infinity War (33.1M 3-Day, 41.5M first 6 days)

48% of Captain Marvel (73.1M 3-Day, 89.4M first 6 days)

 

Like Annabelle, I'm comparing a movie that is currently on a Saturday with movies that were at a Tuesday at the same point in time. That means something. But it still seems to be going strong, so there's nothing really to worry about at the moment.

[Sunny Max]

4 hours ago, superduperm said:

Those pre-sale numbers are concerning to me. 60% of I2's OW would be equivalent to TS3's OW and that would make me very sad.

 

I know this is a fourth installment and Pixar is done with sequels for the time being, so really all I should care about is how good the movie itself is. Still, hopefully pre-sales pickup and walkups are strong.

Pre-sales are better then Dory & TS3 ...  still few days left in release ... so presales definitely will increase ..

 

walkups will be the key for OW ...

[reddevil19]

150-ish OW would be great and of course it might very well end up close (+/-) to The Incredibles. Obviously loads of upfront demand, but I do think this will play slightly leggier than Incredibles 2.

[Sunny Max]

2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

150-ish OW would be great and of course it might very well end up close (+/-) to The Incredibles. Obviously loads of upfront demand, but I do think this will play slightly leggier than Incredibles 2.

$150 M Ow would be huge ... multi will be better than I2 ... right 

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

$150 M Ow would be huge ... multi will be better than I2 ... right 

i would say that the best way to guess the ow , would be to have an idea about the previews

[john2000]

i am really intrested to see how toy story 4 does, i could see it as low as 130 and as high as 200 , it will be a fascinating weekend indeed

[Sunny Max]

No doubt ... interesting weekend incoming ...   

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i am really intrested to see how toy story 4 does, i could see it as low as 130 and as high as 200 , it will be a fascinating weekend indeed

Tonight is when the presales will start to roar. Then it will be an exciting run up to the finish.

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

Tonight is when the presales will start to roar. Then it will be an exciting run up to the finish.

agreed

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Tonight is when the presales will start to roar. Then it will be an exciting run up to the finish.

agreed     any update regarding presales ...???