The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I think the lack of ramp up of pre-sales is worrying.  Not a sign of flopping.  Not a sign that it's gonna bomb.  Just 'worrying'.

 

Even for a walkup family type movie, I would expect to see the signs of it increasing.

 

That being said, as I said last night, I am seeing the signs of a pulse. If it continues that, then its prospects improve.  

 

Also we are getting anecdotal reports of relatively stronger sales for Sat.  That would bode well for a family-friendly internal multiplier.

 

I'm not going to sugarcoat this for you, Cappoedameron, there is no sign that PIka PIka is gonna break out.  Yet.

 

The "yet" isn't a sugarcoat or attempting to have it both ways.  Just that it hasn't done it yet.

 

Will it? Can't say. The interest is obv out there from social media engagement.  Just have to see when or if it actually translates to butts in the seats.

Just to add to this, many breakout movies showed no presale signs until the weekend actually arrived. The classic example in Jurassic World, which was pegged to do 100m OW before Thursday previews came in. Then it kept going up and up and had great legs too. 

 

Essentially, if Pika wants to breakout, I don't think the presales are necessarily the signs for that. Wait to see what happens on Thursday after reviews, and also after OW to see what kind of legs it might be looking at. 

 

Another example might be Pirates of the Caribbean. It only opened to 50m but legged it to 300m. Yes it was 2003 and things were different but the prospect is the same. WOM needs time to settle in, if it is going to. 

 

Overall, @Cappoedameron I don't think looking at presales is necessarily the way to look for signs of a breakout. I think you're just gonna have to wait a week and a half until it actually comes out.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

You’re talking about the Nutcracker right? 

 

[Perfundle]

9 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So in that case, what does that mean since Aladdin has only sold 5% of tickets?

Well Aladdin got bigger screens for its showings because it has IMAX screenings and Dolby Cinema, while DP has neither. Those two formats are dominating the ticket sales, and plenty of 3D and regular screenings are empty. In theaters that offer one at least one of those formats as well as regular or 3D shows, they make up 93% of the ticket sales despite only taking up 53% of seats.

 

Strangely enough, the current Friday/Saturday ratio for Aladdin is 1.44, which isn't like a family film at all. I know that my other numbers were for presales 10 days out, but that ratio presents itself on the first day and basically stays the same.

[Cappoedameron]

I would love to know how BOP tracks there's because they're been really accurate. I hope Pika can make their prediction or even go up to their first prediction. Thanks to Sonic Pikachu just got free positive publicity.

[Cappoedameron]

1 minute ago, Perfundle said:

Well Aladdin got bigger screens for its showings because it has IMAX screenings and Dolby Cinema, while DP has neither. Those two formats are dominating the ticket sales, and plenty of 3D and regular screenings are empty. In theaters that offer one at least one of those formats as well as regular or 3D shows, they make up 93% of the ticket sales despite only taking up 53% of seats.

 

Strangely enough, the current Friday/Saturday ratio for Aladdin is 1.44, which isn't like a family film at all. I know that my other numbers were for presales 10 days out, but that ratio presents itself on the first day and basically stays the same.

Pikachu has Dolby Cinemas. At least at all theaters near me.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Porthos sensei how's John Wick and Aladdin looking so far in your opinion?

Haven't looked at Wick, so no clue. Probably be a little frontloaded simply because of it being the third entry in a franchise.  That promotion a while back probably helped quite a bit. Might drag down the multiplier (both internal and OW-DOM) though.

 

I think Aladdin doing 1.4x Pika Pika locally and 1.3x Pika Pika from @Perfundle's tracking could be a bit better, but is showing that it isn't flatlining at least.

 

Wouldn't expect it to break out at that level of engagement, but it doesn't seem to be bombing either.  

 

Probably just the standard Memorial Day numbers.  Could be worse, is what I suppose I am saying.

[Mulder]

5 hours ago, Mulder said:

Rn at my theater (Just Thursdays)-

 

Aladdin-41 (+15), 6 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Detective Pikachu-99, 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-47, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Aladdin got a massive boost from last night surprisingly.

Mid-day at my theater (Just Thursdays)-

 

Aladdin-43 (+2),  7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-110 (+11), 6 Screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-48 (+1), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

[Mulder]

Detective Pikachu's starting to pick up it seems? @Cappoedameron @Nova

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Detective Pikachu's starting to pick up it seems? @Cappoedameron @Nova

I can’t tell  It was selling so little that any activity could be considered a “pick up” 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I can’t tell  It was selling so little that any activity could be considered a “pick up” 

I mean the fact that it's going up can only be considered positive.  How positive is in the eye of the beholder.

[Cappoedameron]

19 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Mid-day at my theater (Just Thursdays)-

 

Aladdin-43 (+2),  7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-110 (+11), 6 Screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-48 (+1), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

At your theatre does Pikachu have dolby screens?

[Mulder]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

At your theatre does Pikachu have dolby screens?

No as detailed just 3D and Regular 2D. My theater doesn't do Dolby.

[Minnale101]

I mean doing 10% of the pre sales that the the previous 20 days did in few hours is pretty decent I would say 

[Old Spice]

8:00 PM EST Pika update for Sugarhouse Cinemark 10 Luxury Theater in Salt Lake City. All screenings 2d.

 

Thursday May 9th

4:00 PM 7/62

6:40 PM 14/62

9:20 PM 2/62

Total 23/186 12.3%

 

Fri May 10th

9:00 AM 0/104

11:35 AM 0/104

2:10 PM 10/104

4:45 PM 17/104

7:20 PM 46/104

10:00 PM 4/104

Total 77/624 12.3%

 

Overall totals aren't hugely impressive but there has definitely been an uptick over the past 24 hours. I could see some additional showings being added for the prime evening slots both nights. Will update again on Friday.

 

[Porthos]

47 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Detective Pikachu's starting to pick up it seems? @Cappoedameron @Nova

WB should do something for Paramount to thank them for all the positive coverage they got on Twitter today.

 

Maybe take out Paramount's marketing team to Morton's or something.  Maybe Ruth's Chris, if it's closer.

 

You know, show them that they appreciate being done a solid like that.  Really the least WB could do, IMO.

[dakus]

So given the current revelations about Pulse being capped, are we tending to assume that presales on it for Pika/Wick/Aladdin/etc at the moment are still likely being lowballed from the Endgame monster? Or would the numbers be representative enough now that we’re into ‘“lower” selling weekdays?

Edited May 1, 2019 by dakus

[HouseOfTheSun]

10 minutes ago, dakus said:

So given the current revelations about Pulse being capped, are we tending to assume that presales on it for Pika/Wick/Aladdin/etc at the moment are still likely being lowballed from the Endgame monster? Or would the numbers be representative enough now that we’re into ‘“lower” selling weekdays?

Why would Endgame hitting the cap mean other movies are being lowballed? 

[Nova]

19 minutes ago, dakus said:

So given the current revelations about Pulse being capped, are we tending to assume that presales on it for Pika/Wick/Aladdin/etc at the moment are still likely being lowballed from the Endgame monster? Or would the numbers be representative enough now that we’re into ‘“lower” selling weekdays?

You’d have to count the tracker and see. If it adds up to 4,000 then there’s been a cap. If it doesn’t then the cap wasn’t hit and the numbers sold that hour are the actual sets. Keep in mind that the last update is at 3,000 sets and then it gets to 4,000 on the next update (if it does). I don’t think the cap has been hit all that much today. Not like yesterday or last week. I would assume that the tracker will be normalized by tomorrow and Thursday but it may act funky again FSS depending on how high End Game goes for the weekend. 

[dakus]

11 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Why would Endgame hitting the cap mean other movies are being lowballed? 

Endgame would take up such a significant portion of the cap, that the portion of tickets left in that cap for other movies would be a lot lower. So the absolute number of tickets sold would be higher then the number displayed on Pulse when compared to other comps in normal times.

 

At least, that was my understanding of the topic

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, dakus said:

Endgame would take up such a significant portion of the cap, that the portion of tickets left in that cap for other movies would be a lot lower. So the absolute number of tickets sold would be higher then the number displayed on Pulse when compared to other comps in normal times.

 

At least, that was my understanding of the topic

 It all depends on when the cap is hit. So technically speaking even End Games numbers are incomplete. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by Nova