The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Yandereprime101189]

57 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’d argue Aladdin would be much more previews based than the average family film. Not as much as Pikachu or Incredibles 2 so to speak but I’d imagine if it appeals primarily to the female demographic, the previews would be more inflated.

 

Though I agree, $60M OW is the absolute worst for Aladdin. I still think it’ll be around $75M-$90M OW.

 

Had they just have released the actual trailer instead of that sneak peek I'd be talking maybe 150 million opening weekend. Even I know that sneak peek hurt Aladdin.

 

As for pre-sales, I come from a more rural area where most pre-ordering (we have them but people don't tend to buy them) until the week of release. The only exception being Endgame.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

Had they just have released the actual trailer instead of that sneak peek I'd be talking maybe 150 million opening weekend.

 

Even I know that sneak peek hurt Aladdin.

To be honest, I still think it’s scheduling. Between Pikachu and TS4, a new 4 quad $150M+ aiming family film opens in the span of 8 weeks, every two weeks. We shouldn’t even be considering sub $200M a possibility, had Disney had this for 2020, and was exactly the same, it would’ve dominated that year.

[Yandereprime101189]

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

To be honest, I still think it’s scheduling. Between Pikachu and TS4, a new 4 quad $150M+ aiming family film opens in the span of 8 weeks, every two weeks. We shouldn’t even be considering sub $200M a possibility, had Disney had this for 2020, and was exactly the same, it would’ve dominated that year.

 

Yeah, but after this week, I don't see Pikachu quite as much of a threat. I was predicting a considerably larger than 58 million opening. I'm actually very disappointed in Pikachu. 

 

And what makes the insult to injury is Disney's basically competing with itself between Aladdin and Toy Story 4, which I've slowly started to notice isn't getting as much attention as it should be. 

Edited May 13, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[Darth Lehnsherr]

It's why the Memorial Day Weekend releases from Disney always suffer IMO. Yes it hasn't helped by what films they choose to put on that date but it always feels that release is going to always be in the shadow of the May (now late April) MCU Film and the June Pixar film especially with Pixar focusing on sequels for the past couple of years.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

Yeah, but after this week, I don't see Pikachu quite as much of a threat. I was predicting a considerably larger than 58 million opening. I'm actually very disappointed in Pikachu. 

 

And what makes the insult to injury is Disney's basically competing with itself between Aladdin and Toy Story 4, which I've slowly started to notice isn't getting as much attention as it should be. 

It’s still near 17M tickets from families and god knows how many children went to see Endgame. That’s upfront demand being burned off.

[Legion Again]

On 5/11/2019 at 6:32 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/11/19 (End of Sat)  

1	47.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	27.7%	Detective Pikachu
3	5.6%	The Hustle
4	3.1%	Long Shot
5	3%	Poms

Poms already fell behind Long Shot. Nothing particularly notable this update.

17 PT 5/12/19 (End of Sun)

1	40.5%	Avengers: Endgame
2	24.5%	Detective Pikachu
3	9.2%	The Hustle
4	4.4%	Poms
5	4.1%	Long Shot  

In a shocking twist, movies that you might be more likely to see with a mother seem to have relatively increased today

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’ll try to do Wick 3, Aladdin and Godzilla 2 Tuesday. Sorry I’ve haven’t been updating much, finals are a real stressor.

Godzilla could obviously still fail miserably if it sucks.

 

Looks frickin awesome though!

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Biggestgeekever said:

2019-05-12 19:00:00	716	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-12 19:00:00	681	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-12 19:00:00	214	The Hustle (2019)
2019-05-12 19:00:00	200	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

BABA YAGA

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-11 22:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	33.003%	24237	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	26.230%	19263	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
3	08.158%	5991	The Hustle (2019)
4	04.883%	3586	Long Shot
5	04.635%	3404	The Intruder (2019)
6	03.574%	2625	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
7	03.169%	2327	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
8	02.789%	2048	Poms
9	01.844%	1354	UglyDolls
10	01.171%	860	Captain Marvel (2019)

===

 

On the 24hr tracker, the Boogeyman is at #6.  Depending on how quickly it eats through the Sunday lead of Long Shot and The intruder, there's a small chance it might appear on one of the last Monday updates for the Top Five over at MT.com.  Otherwise I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't show up on Tuesday, Discount Ticket day or not.

[Mulder]

Wick coming in for that over Pikachu OW. 

[Mulder]

7 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-83 (+17), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular) Third Day

Aladdin-72, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-129 (+14), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

KoTM officially passed Aladdin today and John Wick's continuing to be insane  Not looking good for Aladdin though.

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-87 (+21), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular) Third Day

Aladdin-81 (+9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-136 (+21), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

KoTM and John Wick both had really good days today, KoTM not slowing down much at all and John Wick picking up speed as it's final week continues. Hoping it can beat Pikachu within the next three days but we'll see. Aladdin had a decent day after all, finally selling some tickets but KoTM is still ahead of it. In total today Aladdin sold 9 tickets and both John Wick and Godzilla sold 21 tickets.

[Mulder]

On 5/12/2019 at 12:02 AM, Mulder said:

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-56, 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Nothing new today.

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-58 (+2), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Slowly but surely.

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	70	9096	9997	9.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      38

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.4579x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 11 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-11:

Pika:    38  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |  8030/8648 seats left   |  7.15% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5187x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 11 days before release.

.4774x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 11 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-11 days:

JW2                 76 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   8507/10113 seats left | 15.88% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    33 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings |   7820/8653 seats left   |   9.63% sold]

FB2                 76 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 11605/13377 seats left |  13.25% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    38 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings |   8245/9091 seats left    |   9.31% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	7582	7954	4.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     38

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I might add some more comps in the coming days, but I haven't yet decided which ones, if any.

 

.4041x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after three day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 3 of Pre-sales:

JW2               96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |  9242/10113 seats left   |   8.61% sold]

KotM (JW)      35 tickets sold [0 sellouts/57 showings   |   6544/6896 seats left    |   5.10% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-50 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	13	2014	2235	9.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                 28

 

No comps at the moment.  If I think of any good ones, I'll pop them in here.

 

Next update: Thr 5/16

[Porthos]

On 5/11/2019 at 10:52 PM, Porthos said:

Not sure if I'll keep doing this or not, but just do folks don't get the wrong idea:

 

Wick 3: 1083 tickets sold five days away (+55)

Pika:     1137 tickets sold five days away (+113)

 

====

Still hanging in there:

 

Wick 3:  1158 tickets sold four days away (+75)

Pika:      1247 tickets sold four days away (+110)

 

Later showtimes saw some growth as well.  Now really interested to see what happens when there is screen expansion over the next couple of days.

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Still hanging in there:

 

Wick 3:  1158 tickets sold four days away (+75)

Pika:      1247 tickets sold four days away (+110)

 

Later showtimes saw some growth as well.  Now really interested to see what happens when there is screen expansion over the next couple of days.

Yeah Wick 3's 10 PM 2D showing sold a decent amount of tickets at my theater as well. 

 

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	7582	7954	4.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     38

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I might add some more comps in the coming days, but I haven't yet decided which ones, if any.

 

.4041x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after three day of pre-sales.           

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 3 of Pre-sales:

JW2               96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |  9242/10113 seats left   |   8.61% sold]

KotM (JW)      35 tickets sold [0 sellouts/57 showings   |   6544/6896 seats left    |   5.10% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

It's slowly but surely catching up to FK that's good.

[Mulder]

@Porthos may I bug you for your daily write-ups on how Aladdin and KOTM are doing. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It's slowly but surely catching up to FK that's good.

It lost a teeny amount of ground, actually.  

 

Statistically insignificant, though.  And those missing theaters more than account for it, so if we take them away from JW2, then you're right it probably is gaining ground.

 

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

It lost a teeny amount of ground, actually.  

 

Statistically insignificant, though.  And those missing theaters more than account for it, so if we take them away from JW2, then you're right it probably is gaining ground.

 

Ah ok.  It's growth from yesterday is what made me think otherwise lmao. Thanks for the clarification!

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Mulder said:

@Porthos may I bug you for your daily write-ups on how Aladdin and KOTM are doing. 

Hmmm.  Not sure I really have much to say.

 

Aladdin was kinda flatish.  Tied Pikachu on a per-day basis for the first time, which isn't the greatest of signs.  Just kinda sat there.

 

...

 

Yeah, just kinda sat there might be the perfect way to describe it.   Which really isn't a great sign 11 days away.

 

===

 

KotM?  It definitely is in a slow period now. Not seeing as much growth at the PLF screens that I kinda thought I would be.  Those missing theaters are making it tough to adjust, especially since I can't know for sure if people are sayin' eff-it and going to a different theater or just waiting in the wings.

 

It's doing decent.  Good.  Slow but sure.  It ain't busting out and it ain't flatlining.  I think I might like to see it be a little more lively, but it's hard to say with 20% of the local market missing.  

 

As I check, it's outsold Pika Pika and Aladdin each of its first three days, so it's got that going for it.  Which is nice.

 

Honestly, I'm at the stage of the game where I like to look at groups of days instead of day-to-day.  I'll probably shift to X-days from release within the next couple of days, for what it's worth. 

 

Ask me again on Thursday or so for some more KotM thoughts as by then I think I might have a good enough look at the patterns to solidify my current thoughts.

 

Unless I see something that makes me want to offer some on my own, of course.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Porthos