The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Joyous Legion]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

While it used to be the trend for big box office breakouts to decrease with the sequel, the trend this decade has been increases.

Is it really? I doubt this is true looking at non-MCU sequels, and they’re in a unique situation.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[YM!]

Just now, Alli said:

It's a feeling i have. Maybe i'm too hyped, but those legs were fantastic. People loved WW and the anticipation is crazy high

Make no mistake the legs have to be one of the most impressive for modern CBMs but it’ll see an OW jump ($135M-$160M) instead.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

If evil like Illumination, and the majority of live action remakes can succeed, I have no reason to see why this won’t especially considering how big musicals are now as well as that Disney power, so that evil will help it succeed. 

I feel like the evil you're referring to is completely different from the one I am.

 

[YM!]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Is it really? I doubt this is true looking at non-MCU sequels.

John Wick. Wreck It Ralph. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I feel like the evil you're referring to is completely different from the one I am.

 

Oh. Him, yeah BOT should be used to films they don’t like as well as certain “actors” succeeded.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I feel like the evil you're referring to is completely different from the one I am.

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

John Wick. Wreck It Ralph. 

I mena, obviously *some* sequels increase. They were suggesting it was a majority this decade, and on the other side there’s:  

FB2

TLJ

JWFK

MI5  

KotM

DP2

Mamma Mia 2  

LM2

Paddington 2   

Daddy’s home 2

Conjuring 2  

Mockingjay 1 and 2  

KFP2,3

Cars 2,3

Hangover 2,3

Expendables 2,3

Taken 2,3

DM3

TASM2

50 shades 2,3

HTTYD 2,3

Pitch Perfect 3

HT3

 

Some other increases that came to mind (some quite small):  

MI6

Creed 2

Equalizer 2

Catching Fire

DM2

PP2

HT2    

 

There have ave been a bunch more sequels this decade, I’m not claiming this is a rigorous exhaustive analysis. Just that the idea “the trend this decade has been increases” seems very difficult to believe.  

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

HT3

I don’t think it’s fair to count that one as it was within spitting range from the second.

 

Also 

Annabelle Creation counts as an increase.

 

But it seems the CBMs tend have an increase (DOFP, Logan, BvS, most MCU sequels) 

Edited June 4, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t think it’s fair to count that one as it was within spitting range from the second.

 

Also 

Annabelle Creation counts as an increase.

 

But it seems the CBMs tend have an increase (DOFP, Logan, BvS, most MCU sequels) 

CBMs get tricky. DOFP is up big from first class, but it’s kind of a direct sequel, kind of a crossover. Same with MOS and BvS. Logan is kind of a sequel and up, The Wolverine was kind of a sequel and down. JL is sort of a sequel, sort of a crossover, down big. Apocalypse down. Phoenix looking quite likely down. MCU has like 9 increases (likely 10 with FFH) and 2 decreases, but it’s driven by the Avengers engine — I specifically mentioned non-MCU sequels.       

 

Anyway, I get the rough impression that the balance is closer for CBMs, but movieman seemed to be saying just sequels in general, and I wanted to point out that that didn’t seem very accurate to me.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

CBMs get tricky. DOFP is up big from first class, but it’s kind of a direct sequel, kind of a crossover. Same with MOS and BvS. Logan is kind of a sequel and up, The Wolverine was kind of a sequel and down. JL is sort of a sequel, sort of a crossover, down big. Apocalypse down. Phoenix looking quite likely down. MCU has like 9 increases (likely 10 with FFH) and 2 decreases, but it’s driven by the Avengers engine — I specifically mentioned non-MCU sequels.       

 

Anyway, I get the rough impression that the balance is closer for CBMs, but movieman seemed to be saying just sequels in general, and I wanted to point out that that didn’t seem very accurate to me.

Still Ant Man 2 and GV2 increased without any Avengers boost. I think WW1984 will have either a minor decrease or increase. But I do agree about sequels, the right time is either 2-3 years, 10-20 years for nostalgia boom or anytime if your Cinematic Universe is prevalent and the character is present enough.

Edited June 4, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Tinalera]

Silvercity london june 6

Dark Phoenix 

IMAX fan event
615 63/323 ( +0)
10pm. 9/323 (0)

Westmount 

VIP
615 21/63  (+4)
1000 10/63 (+1)

Secret life of pets 2

Silvercity london 
Recliner 3d
715 17/111(0)
930 6/111 (0)

Westmount

615 9/59(0)
930 0/59(0)

The numbers arent moving much

Edited June 4, 2019 by Tinalera
More info

[Justin4125]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I mena, obviously *some* sequels increase. They were suggesting it was a majority this decade, and on the other side there’s:  

FB2

TLJ

JWFK

MI5  

KotM

DP2

Mamma Mia 2  

LM2

Paddington 2   

Daddy’s home 2

Conjuring 2  

Mockingjay 1 and 2  

KFP2,3

Cars 2,3

Hangover 2,3

Expendables 2,3

Taken 2,3

DM3

TASM2

50 shades 2,3

HTTYD 2,3

Pitch Perfect 3

HT3

 

Some other increases that came to mind (some quite small):  

MI6

Creed 2

Equalizer 2

Catching Fire

DM2

PP2

HT2    

 

There have ave been a bunch more sequels this decade, I’m not claiming this is a rigorous exhaustive analysis. Just that the idea “the trend this decade has been increases” seems very difficult to believe.  

This is a very common misconception. People see the performances of the MCU and the Fast Franchise and believe that its normal for sequels to increase. Maybe some high profile ones do, but the break out sequel is rare

 

Now, in the past (70s, 80s, 90s) it was almost guaranteed that a sequel would make less than its predecessors. Nowadays with streaming (legal or otherwise) and the internet in general, there are so many more ways to grab an audience after the first film. This helped to improve a sequel's box office prospects

 

In the early 2000s, we saw tremendous market growth in EM, further helping sequels to outgross their predecessors worldwide (though domestic declines happen ~90%+ of the time)

 

Since the financial crisis, EM market growth has slowed outside of China (to a lesser extent Indonesia, but its a small market by comparison). That said, China is big enough of a market that it still helped many sequels to save face, or even gross a bit more, than their predecessors 

 

Market growth in China is slowing now as well, and as it does, the built in OS bump will have less of an effect. Sequels to recent films dont have other factors, such as a 3D bump or inflation working for them, and I believe this will further impact the performance of sequels (inflation has moved at a snails pace last few years, even slower in premium formats, and this has happened globally (EM ATP bumps have slowed as the moviegoing markets mature)

 

Long story short though, even with the help of the above factors, it has been relatively rare to see a sequel outperform the original. For every out performance you have multiple declines

[Tinalera]

Just throwing this out there. Any chance that, because of seemingly monthly push for blockbusters, wom for movies that would normally get it might diminish thus because people dont have as much dollars due to said previous movies? Going from my previous post on the subject, are there less "wom dollars" right now?

[Justin4125]

Double posted my mistake

Edited June 4, 2019 by Justin4125

[keysersoze123]

Wondy 2 is next year. Let us use the movie thread to predict its BO or 2020 discussion thread. Otherwise we will soon start MCU vs DC discussion on this thread.

[Justin4125]

27 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Just throwing this out there. Any chance that, because of seemingly monthly push for blockbusters, wom for movies that would normally get it might diminish thus because people dont have as much dollars due to said previous movies? Going from my previous post on the subject, are there less "wom dollars" right now?

We went from a weak beginning of the year at the BO to event movies every week (and of course the nuclear bomb that was AEG). I think we are seeing some household movie budgets get stretched. This is particularly the case given the relative decline in moviegoing in general. Eventizing movies has been an attempt to offset this, and with so many would-be event films being released in a short span, I think we are definitely seeing some exhaustion at the multiplexes (I also think attention spans are getting shorter, we're increasingly latching on to the next flavor of the week. Movie legs have been getting shorter for a while now, a slew of eventized films just execerbates this). Lastly theres screen loss. Even counter-programming titles go for wide releases nowadays taking away screens from holdovers

Edited June 4, 2019 by Justin4125

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Justin4125 said:

We went from a weak beginning of the year at the BO to event movies every week (and of course the nuclear bomb that was AEG). I think we are seeing some household movie budgets get stretched. This is particularly the case given the relative decline in moviegoing in general. Eventizing movies has been an attempt to offset this, but with so many would-be event films being released in a short span, I think we are definitely seeing some exhaustion at the multiplexes (I also think attention spans are getting shorter, we're increasingly latching on to the next flavor of the week. Movie legs have been getting shorter for a while now, a slew of eventized films just execerbates this). Lastly theres screen loss. Even counter-programming titles go for wide releases nowadays taking away screens from holdovers

Which really sucks especially as counterprogramming is also suffering as well due to streaming as well as lack of event status.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dark Phoenix is going to be driven by Atom. Tmobile subscribers can buy tickets at $4. I don’t think there was a deal for Zilla last week. its definitely opening > 40m. It will also play wider than a monster movie. I am thinking its going to open closer to 50m than 40m.

Yes, that part is 100% true.  I'd expect $4 is the moving rate to watch DP in theater - I mean, even my spouse is considering it, the 1st TMobile movie deal he's considered jumping on all year.  

 

Godzilla had $5 off/2 tickets, so not quite as much of a moving price on Atom last week...

 

Best way to probably guess the movie opening is to track an Atom and non-Atom theater, and see how much the effect might be (I have one of each, but not sure I'm gonna get really invested in working DP:)...for Alita, it was a large dichotomy between the 2 types of theaters (my non-Atom was empty most of the weekend while the Atom theater got almost sell outs)...

Edited June 4, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[YM!]

Dark Phoenix has been given the make out of death at North Shore, not only is it sharing UltraScreen with Pets 2 but it only has 8 showings over the weekend, which is the worst ever for a CBM here. Also 3/8 are in 3D.

Edited June 4, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[YM!]

The Secret Life Of Pets 2 (2 before previews, 3 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

6:00 - 22/149

8:15 - 7/149

10:30 - 0/149

 

Running:

33% of Aladdin at the same time ($30.5M OW)

64% of Coco at the same time ($32.7M OW)

83% of Christopher Robin at the same time ($20.4M OW)

83% of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation at the same time ($36.6M OW)

121% of A Wrinkle In Time at the same time ($40.1M OW)

 

Ouch. Just ouch. This is very bad as Pets 2 final showtimes only has three showings. Thinking $45M-$55M OW. 

 

 

Dark Phoenix (2 before previews, 3 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

7:00 - 40/119

7:30 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 11/119 

10:30 - 0/119 - UltraScreen 

 

Running:

24% of Spider-Man: Homecoming at the same time ($28.3M OW)

34% of Ant Man and The Wasp at the same time ($26.1M OW)

41% of Venom at the same time ($33M OW)

62% of Godzilla: King Of The Monsters at the same time ($29.6M OW)

70% of Mission Impossible: Fallout ($42.8M OW)

 

Good jump but it wasn’t enough. This is very bad. Thinking $35M-$45M OW.

 

Men In Black: International (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/13/19

 

4:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

7:00 - 3/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

 

This is a very bad start. Starting to doubt over $35M OW.

Edited June 4, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord