The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

If you're talking about @CoolEric258 he does blocks of certain days e.g. day 24-day 11 (I forgot what the exact days he gave were). I've been comparing from the beginning of I2's presale run vs from the beginning of TS4's presale run (the lengths of the 2 runs were very different, but I feel like we're late enough that it should have normalized). Both approaches have their merits, I think we'll have a clearer picture next week of where exactly this is headed.

according to him, or his graph if you will from the firs days of presales till now toy story 4 is 85% of i2

[DisposedData]

41 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Demolish? Where? 

 

Worldwide it will beat it but domestic and domestic OW, I believe I2 still comes out ahead.

Everywhere. Frozen 2 has a November all to itself and that can't be underestimated.

[Eric the Minion]

As much as I like to pretend that I'm a genius, I generally think @Porthos and @Menor have had better luck when it comes to extrapolating data, and I'd rather people trust them instead of me.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

according to him, or his graph if you will from the firs days of presales till now toy story 4 is 85% of i2

But Toy Story 4 and I2 had very different lengths of their PS run, so Incredibles 2 numbers after its Thursday (1 week before previews) are greater than TS4 numbers after its Thursday 1 week before previews by a higher ratio. It all depends on whether you use (after x days of presales) or (x days before release). Anyway I think we can agree to disagree for now, we'll have a better idea in a few days when the sales really heat up.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

As much as I like to pretend that I'm a genius, I generally think @Porthos and @Menor have had better luck when it comes to extrapolating data, and I'd rather people trust them instead of me.

I mean, don't sell yourself short. Your ranges are generally pretty damn accurate, and you have a lot of comps.

[Geo1500]

After doing more research I realized that TLK is definitely going to make way more then FFH. Probably the biggest Movie in 2019 after EG. 

 

250 OW could be possible 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Geo1500

[john2000]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

As much as I like to pretend that I'm a genius, I generally think @Porthos and @Menor have had better luck when it comes to extrapolating data, and I'd rather people trust them instead of me.

still as porthos sai the previews for toy story seems to be like 14-16 and as i did a breakdown of some sorts , the range is just too big could go as low as 135 and as high as 205, better would be to wait for the previews number first then, i will try to see the other possibilites 2, 

 

the data is data, doesnt matter where it comes from , different sources give different results, howerever porthos seems to be on fire ,and the previes from presales in general point to something close for t4

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

But Toy Story 4 and I2 had very different lengths of their PS run, so Incredibles 2 numbers after its Thursday (1 week before previews) are greater than TS4 numbers after its Thursday 1 week before previews by a higher ratio. It all depends on whether you use (after x days of presales) or (x days before release). Anyway I think we can agree to disagree for now, we'll have a better idea in a few days when the sales really heat up.

again yeah, the possibilites are endless, if you saw my previous comment and porthos comment for the previews, , the range is caotic for now

[john2000]

lets see what the previes and wom will be first

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I mean, don't sell yourself short. Your ranges are generally pretty damn accurate, and you have a lot of comps.

you are genius too ..   .. 

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

After doing more research I realized that TLK is definitely going to make way more then FFH. Probably the biggest Movie in 2019 after EG. 

 

250 OW could be possible 

finally you realized ...    TLK is definitely going to make way more than FFH ..

[john2000]

Just now, Sunny Max said:

finally you realized ...    TLK is definitely going to make way more than FFH ..

i would love to see the reactions though if that were to happen

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

As much as I like to pretend that I'm a genius, I generally think @Porthos and @Menor have had better luck when it comes to extrapolating data, and I'd rather people trust them instead of me.

 

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I mean, don't sell yourself short. Your ranges are generally pretty damn accurate, and you have a lot of comps.

100 percent agreed. You do a LOT of damn great work, @CoolEric258.  And I personally tend to use your ranges AND your thoughts on them as benchmarks to see whether or not my local slice of the world is over-performing or not.

 

I personally look forward to seeing them every night/morning when you post them.

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i would love to see the reactions though if that were to happen

Yep ..   

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i would love to see the reactions though if that were to happen

TLK making more than FFH or FFH making more than TLK? Isn't TLK expected to make more than FFH, I don't think anyone would be that surprised at that?

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

TLK making more than FFH or FFH making more than TLK? Isn't TLK expected to make more than FFH, I don't think anyone would be that surprised at that?

Yeah nobody would be surprised ... 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Sunny Max said:

Yeah nobody would be surprised ... 

I was just a little confused because then why would you love to see the reactions. I don't think people would react that much since it's the expected result.

[Joyous Legion]

I know this is a bit late, but Endgame presales absolutely were indicating mid 300s. People then manually adjusted down because they couldn't believe it.

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Menor said:

I was just a little confused because then why would you love to see the reactions. I don't think people would react that much since it's the expected result.

 i dont want to see .. lol  ... of course its the expected result ..even with average wom movie is capable of $1 B + minimum 

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

I know this is a bit late, but Endgame presales absolutely were indicating mid 300s. People then manually adjusted down because they couldn't believe it.

Pure insanity  ...