The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater:

 

Happytime Murders: 10/124

 

A.X.L.:

4:00: 1/78

6:45: 3/78

Total: 4/156

 

Beautifully Broken has sold nothing.

[WrathOfHan]

First A.X.L. showing: 7/78

 

5 of these are single seats lol

[DAJK]

RIP

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

RIP

AXL or Open/Global Road?

[poweranimals]

Happy Fun Time Murders not even in the top 5 yet on MT.com.

[filmlover]

Early tracking:

 

The Nun: $32-40M

The Predator: $25-30M

A Simple Favor: $12-15M

White Boy Rick: $5-9M

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/predator-box-office-shane-black-reboot-opening-tracking-1202915431/

[DAJK]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

AXL or Open/Global Road?

Or Han's theater

[DAJK]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Early tracking:

 

The Nun: $32-40M

The Predator: $25-30M

A Simple Favor: $12-15M

White Boy Rick: $5-9M

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/predator-box-office-shane-black-reboot-opening-tracking-1202915431/

Predator seems about right IMO. There seems to be some buzz but not enough for a breakout, so I think it'll wind up around tracking. Nun I think is going to overperform even the high end. Simple Favor sure... seems like a low teens opening to me. No clue how many theatre's WBR will open in but the trailer is definitely interesting enough for it to not wind up a total bomb or anything. 

[el sid]

Now THM has at least entered the top 5 of MT:

#1 CRA 36.5%
#2 The Meg 6.7%
#3 CR 6.4%
#4 M: I6 5.7%
#5 The Happytime Murders 5%

And Pulse:
51 (two hours ago) and now 49 for The Happytime Murders. Not the best comparison but Mile 22 had pretty similar sold ticket numbers. Maybe THM has more walk ups (?).
By the way today I saw the first Pulse tickets for The Nun (each time ca. 5/5 minutes) .

Edited August 23, 2018 by el sid

[Nova]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Early tracking:

 

The Nun: $32-40M

The Predator: $25-30M

A Simple Favor: $12-15M

White Boy Rick: $5-9M

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/predator-box-office-shane-black-reboot-opening-tracking-1202915431/

The Nun is too low imo. I see it over $40M and I wouldn't rule out $50M either. Horror movies are hot and the movie comes from a well known franchise 

The Predator looks about right to me 

A Simple Favor imo is also too low. I see that in the high teens and possibly hitting $20M if it's well received  

White Boy Rick seems like a low single digit opening movie to me but I will admit, I haven't followed it all that much 

Edited August 23, 2018 by Nova

[carlsalf38]

I'm not so sure The Nun will open over 40. It will need to basically do the same as The Conjuring and although Valak is a very popular monster I'm not sure she will carry the movie to those levels. 35 Million (as Annabelle did) is a safe bet.

I think The Predator does look fine. At least very well done. Nothing more really exciting that month but these two

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Early tracking:

 

The Nun: $32-40M

The Predator: $25-30M

A Simple Favor: $12-15M

White Boy Rick: $5-9M

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/predator-box-office-shane-black-reboot-opening-tracking-1202915431/

Sounds right. ASF and WBR can increase a lot if reviews are good

[The Wild Eric]

The Happytime Murders

75

1180

6.36%

 

 

Comps:

94% of Game Night (15.9M)

115% of Blockers (23.7M)

58% of Super Troopers 2 (8.7M)

178% of Tag (26.7M)

49% of Uncle Drew (7.4M)

170% of Spy Who Dumped Me (20.6M)

68% of Crazy Rich Asians (18.1M)

 

Yeah, this ain't going above 20M, so...Game Night's comp I guess?

[KeepItU25071906]

26 minutes ago, Nova said:

The Nun is too low imo. I see it over $40M and I wouldn't rule out $50M either.

1

presales looks GOOD.  50+

 

 

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Yeah, this ain't going above 20M, so...Game Night's comp I guess?

 

17 mln? I'm highly doubt that

Edited August 23, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

presales looks GOOD.  50+

Presales don't begin until tomorrow...

[KeepItU25071906]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Presales don't begin until tomorrow...

It's on the Fandango about a week

[WrathOfHan]

I'm really interested to see where House with a Clock in Its Walls is tracking at. The trailer generally gets good reactions in my audiences, and it's been getting strong placements lately. It also helps that it's the only family option worth a damn until November (Smallfoot is gonna bomb)

Edited August 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[el sid]

Of course I'm also not sure if The Nun can cross the 40M mark but I think it has good chances. Annabelle made 37M, Annabelle2 35 and the trailers/spots for The Nun IMO looked much better, caused more buzz and were overall well liked. Plus the advertising campaign  - as far as I can judge it  - also seems to be not the smallest and pretty effective. And, that's a very small indicator but I also don't remember so much talking around the Annabelle films as now for The Nun in this forum.

[KeepItU25071906]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm really interested to see where House with a Clock in Its Walls is tracking at.

1

Goosebumps opening like aim, maybe.

 

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Smallfoot is gonna bomb

 

It's WAG, so, yes. 

[Nova]

I just feel like The Nun is in the right spot at the right time. Maybe I am forgetting a film (probably am) but the last real horror film to be released was A Quiet Place back in April. I guess if you count the purge as a horror film then it's that. But the point is that the horror audience has been starved for a film in their genre for several months. And given the good reception for the trailer plus the imo effective marketing, I can really see it breaking out where it's at. It just feels like it's a movie that's going to have everything work for it and break out.