The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, King Internets said:

Hi, I’m new here but I’ve been reading this thread a lot. Where are these numbers from?

From Fandango, courtsey of the fantastic scraper by akvalley.

 

For convenience, the links are in the first post of this thread:

 

On 5/16/2017 at 10:54 AM, grim22 said:

Talk about the presales, tracking, Fandango Pulse and MT Top Sellers in this thread.

 

Resources:

 

http://www.movietickets.com - for the top 5 sellers in the past 24 hours

http://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html - Fandango Pulse updates

 

Fandango Pulse Pipeline (resets on Mondays) 
http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

MovieTickets.com Top 5 (the MovieTickets.com website does not update overnight from about 8 PM CST - 6 AM CST)
http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

 

[King Internets]

Just now, Porthos said:

From Fandango, courtsey of the fantastic scraper by akvalley.

 

For convenience, the links are in the first post of this thread:

 

 

Rad! Thanks very much.

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-04 02:00:32.939812 UTC
1	28%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	15%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	Captain Marvel
4	7%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	4.7%	Alita: Battle Angel

[Joyous Legion]

When did BP get to #1?

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

When did BP get to #1?

Monday morning PST it looks like

Edited March 4, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Joyous Legion]

@CoolEric258, wondering when the cutoff is for the fandango days. Midnight Eastern? Midnight Pacific? Guessing Eastern unless you correct.   

 

I’ve been wanting to see it at least double today, based on BP and HTTYD doing so. That would take 13.4k tickets or so. Looks like we’re at 12.1k with 3 hours to go, which seems pretty much on track to me.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

@CoolEric258, wondering when the cutoff is for the fandango days. Midnight Eastern? Midnight Pacific? Guessing Eastern unless you correct.   

 

I’ve been wanting to see it at least double today, based on BP and HTTYD doing so. That would take 13.4k tickets or so. Looks like we’re at 12.1k with 3 hours to go, which seems pretty much on track to me.

Midnight central, IIRC.

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

@CoolEric258, wondering when the cutoff is for the fandango days. Midnight Eastern? Midnight Pacific? Guessing Eastern unless you correct.   

 

I’ve been wanting to see it at least double today, based on BP and HTTYD doing so. That would take 13.4k tickets or so. Looks like we’re at 12.1k with 3 hours to go, which seems pretty much on track to me.

akvalley uses a central time zone, so I assume the cutoff is midnight central. Don't know how much impact that causes, but I doubt it's anything major.

 

I also just added the 9PM tickets into the data, and...yeah, it's basically a lock to double from Saturday. In fact, it might just have a bigger Saturday to Sunday bump than Black Panther. BP jumped 205% from Saturday to Sunday, and CM has jumped 227% at the same point in time (midnight to 9PM). And with Captain Marvel likely to have better 10PM and 11PM sales than Saturday, this might go even higher. At this point, the gap between BP and CM for this Sunday probably won't be that huge

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Midnight central, IIRC.

Then we’ve got 3 hours to go still now, 1 hr later... and we’re already up to 13.8k, blowing past my goal! Might stay flat or go down in the last 3 hours, in theory, with more people being asleep late night Sun than Sat.

[FlashMaster659]

50 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Then we’ve got 3 hours to go still now, 1 hr later... and we’re already up to 13.8k, blowing past my goal! Might stay flat or go down in the last 3 hours, in theory, with more people being asleep late night Sun than Sat.

15.5k now

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, FlashMaster659 said:

15.5k now

Last two hours +1.7k and +1.7k. Another would bring day to 17.2, very close to Panther.  

 

Edit: Only got to 15.7k, which is still an excellent 83% of BP. Makes sense that the last hour of Sat and last hour of Sun would be pretty close, since both should be fairly dead,

Edited March 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[FlashMaster659]

CM #1 on Fandango now

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-03-02 23:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.898%	13792	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	17.906%	12411	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	14.016%	9715	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
4	05.870%	4069	Alita Battle Angel
5	04.711%	3265	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
6	04.357%	3020	Captain Marvel

44	00.074%	51	Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event

[poweranimals]

They really should add all the IMAX and 3D showings together with the regular ones. It would make it a lot simpler. 

Edited March 4, 2019 by poweranimals

[Eric the Minion]

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737	10,157	10,232	7,477	6,672	15,703
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Us	148	181	188	215	176	144	214
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days

 

 

Captain Marvel Day 17-Day 5

.524x of Black Panther

 

So I'm actually going to let y'all in on a secret. When it comes to comps for the past few days, I was using Black Panther's 4-Day as a comparison instead of the typical 3-Day. Part of the reason was because I just like bigger numbers, but also because I assumed a good chunk of presales was being given to President's Day that it wouldn't be fair to ignore it. Also Captain Marvel started out pretty low in comparison to Black Panther that it seemed unrealistic. But admittedly, I'm not entirely sure if I should use that specifically as a comparison here anymore. Not only has Captain Marvel caught up with Black Panther pretty significantly, even if you want to argue some of the Monday business would have just gone to the weekend, that 40M Monday is abnormally high and is something that is impossible for Captain Marvel to obtain, even with Spring Break. Simply put, it  just seems unfair to do the 4-Day, and I should have fixed that a while ago.

 

But I'm sure that'll be confusing and unfair to those who have followed me from the beginning, so I'll just divide this into two: the 3-day and the 4-day.

 

With that multiple, that's 105.8M for the 3-Day and 126.8M for the 4-Day. Either way, that's great for both, and I'm excited to  see what they do in the coming  days as release week emerges

Edited March 4, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	131	8041	13605	40.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:               402

 

1.1794x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.5186x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2406x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.2180x as many tickets sold as Solo 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.0395x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

1.9483x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-4 Comp:

 

BP:            200 tickets sold [6 sellouts/74 showings    |    3508/7710 seats left  | 54.50% sold]

IW:            305 tickets sold [5 sellouts/139 showings |   3803/13359 seats left  | 71.53% sold]

DP2:          264 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |    9472/13467 seats left | 29.67% sold]

Solo:         151 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6077/10146 seats left  | 40.10% sold]

JW2:          220 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   8833/11263 seats left  | 21.58% sold]

FB2:          146 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/98 showings  |  10691/13377 seats left  | 20.08% sold]

CM (adj)*: 354 tickets sold [0 sellouts/131 showings |   7187/12143 seats left   | 40.81% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	6777	11165	39.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:               313

 

1.0443x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	131	7541	12143	37.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:               223

 

1.1794x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 4 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

[Porthos]

Sacramento went a tiny bit nutty for CM tonight, as one might guess.  Nutty enough that I re-checked it several times as I was compiling it AND a glance over when all was done.

 

And, yes, having more showtimes already up (including the one theater that probably has its full slate up)  is absolutely helping.  In fact, it might even mean not quite of a big bounce on MTW when the rest of the theaters put up their expanded slates.

 

Still, just putting the extra showtimes means jack and squat if the interest isn't there.

 

...

 

It appears interest is there for CM.   At least in Sactown.

Edited March 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

I think multiplying off the 3-day makes more sense, but I don’t think we need D-17 and surrounding days in the mix anymore. That’s right when external factors had the biggest impact, pretty old now, and it’s skewing the data a fair bit imo. Maybe use a rolling last 7 days or so instead?   

 

 I mean, I can compute that today since we just had a full week finish, looks like BP did 99k and CM about 66.6k, for 67%. That would give 134 applied to the 3-day, which is already fine but I expect the ratio to rise more especially after today’s finish.

Edited March 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[rishijoesanu]

I think it's fair assumption that MCU movies will have a frontloaded intraweekend multiplier since Infinity War.

[Nero]

1 hour ago, rishijoesanu said:

I think it's fair assumption that MCU movies will have a frontloaded intraweekend multiplier since Infinity War.

Origin movies generally aren't frontloaded

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Sacramento went a tiny bit nutty for CM

 

It appears interest is there for CM.   At least in Sactown.

1

It's Brie's hometown ffs.