The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nero]

27 minutes ago, MattW said:

1	10	Snow White	Dis.	$984,270,000	1937^
2	12	101 Dalmatians	Dis.	$902,252,800	1961^
3	19	The Lion King	BV	$804,992,200	1994^
4	23	Fantasia	Dis.	$749,882,600	1941^
5	33	Jungle Book	Dis.	$665,329,600	1967^
6	34	SleepingBeauty	Dis.	$656,264,800	1959^
7	37	Shrek 2	DW	$641,589,900	2004
8	44	Pinocchio	Dis.	$608,652,100	1940^

 

Incredibles 2 is #9 animation adjusted.

Ohk. My bad I thought highest grossing animated movie with inflation was somewhere near 700 M. Frozen 2 can get 6 or 7 spot then 

[poweranimals]

5 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

2019-03-02 15:00:24.128885 UTC
1	24.8%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
2	24.3%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	6%	Captain Marvel
4	5%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	4.5%	Green Book

It's down to 5 now but it's crazy to me that it's stuck in the top 5 this long on a Saturday. I can't remember the last time that has happened before the movie even comes out. 

[DlAMONDZ]

2 hours ago, MattW said:

1	10	Snow White	Dis.	$984,270,000	1937^
2	12	101 Dalmatians	Dis.	$902,252,800	1961^
3	19	The Lion King	BV	$804,992,200	1994^
4	23	Fantasia	Dis.	$749,882,600	1941^
5	33	Jungle Book	Dis.	$665,329,600	1967^
6	34	SleepingBeauty	Dis.	$656,264,800	1959^
7	37	Shrek 2	DW	$641,589,900	2004
8	44	Pinocchio	Dis.	$608,652,100	1940^

 

Incredibles 2 is #9 animation adjusted.

Forgot how big Shrek was goddamn

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

It's down to 5 now but it's crazy to me that it's stuck in the top 5 this long on a Saturday. I can't remember the last time that has happened before the movie even comes out. 

For the historical record, the last five hours over at MT:

 

2019-03-02 22:00:29.641275 UTC
1	28.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	19%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	7.2%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	5.2%	Green Book
5	4.5%	Captain Marvel

2019-03-02 21:00:30.225644 UTC
1	28.3%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	19.9%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	6.7%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	5.1%	Green Book
5	4.7%	Captain Marvel

2019-03-02 20:00:28.997012 UTC
1	28.2%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	20.5%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	6.5%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	4.9%	Green Book
5	4.8%	Captain Marvel

2019-03-02 19:00:24.455785 UTC
1	27.9%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	21.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	6.3%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	5%	Captain Marvel
5	4.9%	Green Book

2019-03-02 18:00:28.902987 UTC
1	26.8%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	22.5%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	5.7%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	5.4%	Captain Marvel
5	4.6%	Green Book

We'll see if anything bumps it out, but I'm guessing not at this late stage.

 

====

 

 

It's holding over at Fandango as well:

 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.374%	15409	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	18.551%	12776	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
3	07.404%	5099	Captain Marvel (2019)
4	05.413%	3728	Alita Battle Angel
5	05.381%	3706	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
6	04.411%	3038	Green Book
7	03.995%	2751	Fighting with My Family
8	03.918%	2698	Greta (2019)
9	03.351%	2308	Isnt It Romantic
10	02.971%	2046	A Star is Born Encore
11	02.376%	1636	Apollo 11
12	02.081%	1433	Captain Marvel

 

===

 

As for the last time this happened?  Happens sometimes on mega-openers, especially if there is little competition.  Otherwise, it'll usually appear mid-to-late Sunday.  

 

CM staying in the weekend Top Five on the online ticket sellers is a pretty good sign, though it is coming against pretty weak competition, it has to be noted.

[Eric Burnett]

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737	10,157	10,232	7,477	6,672
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days
Us	148	181	188	215	176	144
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days

 

Captain Marvel Day 17-Day 6

.484x of Black Panther (117.1M)

 

Bit surprised by how well this Saturday was and how it's helped the gap. Now all we have left is Sunday, which should see a good-sized boost when it comes to raw numbers, and release week will finally give us more comps than Black Panther to work off of.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	131	8443	13605	37.94%

 

Total Showings Added Today:         2

Total Seats Added Today:            109

Total Seats Sold Today:               237

 

1.1499x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.4975x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2334x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1746x as many tickets sold as Solo 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.0824x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

1.9087x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-5 Comp:

 

BP:            186 tickets sold [6 sellouts/74 showings    |    3708/7710 seats left  | 51.91% sold]

IW:            242 tickets sold [5 sellouts/139 showings |   4108/13359 seats left  | 69.25% sold]

DP2:          167 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |    9736/13467 seats left | 27.70% sold]

Solo:           89 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6228/10146 seats left  | 38.62% sold]

JW2:          124 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9053/11263 seats left  | 19.62% sold]

FB2:            91 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/98 showings  |  10837/13377 seats left  | 18.99% sold]

CM (adj)*: 223 tickets sold [0 sellouts/131 showings |   7541/12143 seats left   | 37.90% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	7090	11165	36.50%

 

Total Showings Added Today:         2

Total Seats Added Today:            109

Total Seats Sold Today:               192

1.0182x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	131	7541	12143	37.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today:         2

Total Seats Added Today:            109

Total Seats Sold Today:               223

 

1.1499x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 5 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

[Porthos]

For anyone who might still be tempted to think that Captain Marvel will end up pulling a Solo:

 

(daily ticket sales adj for same theaters with tracking info)

Solo:

T-9:   83 (review embargo drops mid-day)

T-8: 101

T-7: 112

T-6:   82

T-5:   89

-------

Total:  467

 

Captain Marvel (adj):

T-9:  148

T-8:    95

T-7:  156

T-6:  198

T-5:  223

--------

Total: 720 

 

That's a little more than 50% more over those five days.

 

====

 

Now it is true that Captain Marvel has nearly 30 more showtimes than Solo did (which is very much fueling part of the ticket sale boost).  But, well, you actually got to sell tickets for those new showings.  And when Solo did finally get its major bump in screens, it still underperformed pretty badly.

 

CM, on the other hand, seems to be selling briskly with some of these new showings. 

 

More to the point, Solo had a very small bump out of its reviews, then flatlined again.  CM, again on the other hand, is following the ramp-up pattern of a film poised to do very well on its preview night.

 

How well?  Well, let's just say I have seen nothing to dissuade me that a 150 OW is in fact very much in the cards.

if not more.

[Porthos]

Now I do want to stay 'on brand' and throw in one slight cautionary note about CM's preview-OW multi.

 

At least one theater in town is going absolutely nutty and has scheduled twenty five showings 7pm or later. And it's one of the better selling theaters in the region.

 

If other theaters in town follow suit, if not to quite that degree, AND that is a sign of a larger national trend, then the Thr:OW multi might be slightly lower than some are expecting, simply because there were good seats still available to see the film on Thr.

 

Now, sure, there's plenty of arguments to be made about buying patterns and availability for the weekend versus Thursday Night.  

 

Point taken.  Still something to keep in mind, if only to temper expectations a tad.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos what are the top absolute number of tickets and % tickets sold in your region for opening night.

[Legion Again]

This is a very crude calculation, but just for kicks 720/467*14.1 would give 21.7M previews as the linear preview extrapolation (editor’s note: linear extrapolation of week before data is dangerous). That’s roughly consistent with the story from other comps, bit on the high side.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

58 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos what are the top absolute number of tickets and % tickets sold in your region for opening night.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Do you mean for other movies, historically? Specific theater for CM?  Overall region?

 

Sorry, just not exactly sure what you're asking for here.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Do you mean for other movies, historically? Specific theater for CM?  Overall region?

 

Sorry, just not exactly sure what you're asking for here.

I meant the all time top ticket seller for opening night in region you track.

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I meant the all time top ticket seller for opening night in region you track.

I haven't actually done that much tracking on a seat level, so that would be Infinity War: 

 

Infinity War:

17 theaters

182 showings (2D: 129 | 3D: 53)

59 Sellouts (29 pure sellouts + 30 showings with six seats or less left at final tracking check)

13,164 tickets sold (13,072 tickets sold + 92 tickets counted from the showings with six seats or less left) 

15,159 seats available (86.64% sold)

 

---

 

Now my seat level tracking did evolve out of my sellout tracking for the various SW films.  Sadly I've had a couple of computer crashes since then and I didn't keep super detailed notes anyway.

 

But I do have the following info from The Last Jedi:

 

The Last Jedi:

15 theaters (IIRC)

163 showings (2D: 115 | 3D: 48)

73 sellouts (don't have the six seats or less adj handy)

 

And that does make sense, as TLJ did 45m on Thr versus IW's 39. I figure the percentage of seats sold was probably a little closer.  But 45/39 = 1.1538 (their respective Thr numbers) which is pretty close to the ratio of 73/59 (1.2373) on the sellouts I tracked.  Close enough for government work at least.

 

=======

 

So, on pure sellouts TLJ (I really kept spotty notes on TFA, as I wasn't even posting on the board at the time). But on actual data, IW.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I haven't actually done that much tracking on a seat level, so that would be Infinity War: 

 

Infinity War:

17 theaters

182 showings (2D: 129 | 3D: 53)

59 Sellouts (29 pure sellouts + 30 showings with six seats or less left at final tracking check)

13,164 tickets sold (13,072 tickets sold + 92 tickets counted from the showings with six seats or less left) 

15,159 seats available (86.64% sold)

 

---

 

Now my seat level tracking did evolve out of my sellout tracking for the various SW films.  Sadly I've had a couple of computer crashes since then and I didn't keep super detailed notes anyway.

 

But I do have the following info from The Last Jedi:

 

The Last Jedi:

16 theaters (IIRC)

163 showings (2D: 115 | 3D: 48)

73 sellouts (don't have the six seats or less adj handy)

 

And that does make sense, as TLJ did 45m on Thr versus IW's 39. I figure the percentage of seats sold was probably a little closer.  But 45/39 = 1.1538 which is pretty close to the ration of 73/59 (1.2373).  Close enough for government work at least.

 

=======

 

So, on pure sellouts TLJ (I really kept spotty notes on TFA, as I wasn't even posting on the board at the time). But on actual data, IW.

What were BP, Deadpool 2, A-M&TW numbers. 

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What were BP, Deadpool 2, A-M&TW numbers. 

Black Panther:

16 theaters 

136 showings (2D: 101 | 3D: 35)

26 sellouts (13 pure sellouts + 13 showings with six seats or less left)

8,104 tickets sold (8,060 tickets sold +44 tickets counted from the showings with six seats or less left)

11,481 seats available (70.59% sold)

 

Deadpool 2:

21 theaters (it played in more theaters locally)

169 showings (no 3D)

3 sellouts (1 pure sellout + 2 showings with six seats or less left)

8,133 tickets sold (8,125 tickets sold +12 tickets counted from the showings with six seats or less left)

16,490 seats available (49.32% sold)

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp:

17 theaters

114 showings (2D: 78 | 3D: 36)

0 sellouts

4,605 tickets sold

11,120 seats available (41.41% sold)

 

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp:

17 theaters

114 showings (2D: 78 | 3D: 36)

0 sellouts

4,605 tickets sold

11,120 seats available (41.41% sold)

 

 

That reminds me:

On 3/1/2019 at 10:53 PM, Porthos said:

Perspective:

 

Captain Marvel has now passed the final total number of tickets sold as Venom at end of tracking at the equivalent theaters tracked.  It might pass the final tracking total of Ant-Man and the Wasp tomorrow (it's 226 tickets behind at the equivalent theaters).  If not tomorrow then certainly early Sunday.

 

This before the massive amount of pre-sales that come in the last couple of days, as well as the day-of ticket sales for Premiere Night.

 

CM didn't quite catch AM&tW today.

 

...

 

It was three tickets behind when I finished my check tonight. 

[rishijoesanu]

When does the next official tracking number come out (Deadline/Hollywood Reporter)?

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

When does the next official tracking number come out (Deadline/Hollywood Reporter)?

monday if i had to guess 

[RealLyre]

Deadpool 2 did really well in pre-sales in Sacramento area 🤔

[Nero]

Where is @WrathOfHan ? Did he left. I don't see him much.