The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Joyous Legion]

34 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Yeah, that's the one I use. I find it to be more accurate and easier to track, even if I technically have to look at more numbers. No  disrespect to the 24 hour clock thing, but that just seems a touch more shaky, and I'd rather take the longer but more accurate approach than just be cheap and do it the quick way.

Appreciate the time. I’m just trying to get a quick and dirty hourly record, so I’ll probably jot down hours from the 24 tracker+final num as provided by you. 

 

 

Edit: If this works how I think it might work you’re about to post a number that makes everyone flip out.   

 

Edit 2: Hmm, not quite. Well, this should let me make a pretty educated guess tomorrow.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Out of reactions so this will suffice 

[Eric the Minion]

 

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Black Panther

35,429

36,302

39,934

65,453

Avengers: Infinity War

49,836

54,892

68,826

206,000

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Incredibles 2

20,872

23,430

39,337

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

A Star Is Born

9,115

11,383

22,641

21,501

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Captain Marvel

33,951

 

 

Monday Comps:

96% of Black Panther's Monday (193.6M)

68% of Infinity War (175.6M)

147% of Deadpool 2 (184.2M)

248% of Solo (209.4M)

163% of Incredibles 2 (297.2M)

250% of Venom (200.3M)

372% of A Star is Born (159.8M)

379% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (235.6M)

399% of Aquaman (271M)

 

Black Panther Last 7 Days Comp:

77% of BP (155.1M)

 

Black Panther Day 17-Day 4 Comp:

60% of BP (121.4M)

 

So...yeah, there's a lot of interesting things here. Using the two big Marvel movies (Ant-Man 2's presales would have indicated a $385M+ opener, which...yeah, that ain't happenin'), that seems like the likely scenario. These are also Marvel movies, there's a clear marketplace, Marvel being the biggest thing in pop culture. Why shouldn't it cross at least 180M?

 

However, I still want to be pessimistic here. Not pessimistic enough for the Day 17 BP comp, but more on the line of the Last 7 Days BP comp and the Star is Born comp.

 

I'm sure many are confused why ASIB is listed next to other action/superhero movies based on brands with huge fanbases. Well, the one factor that Captain Marvel has that those other movies don't is strong female appeal. Female-led/skewing movies are notorious for having comparatively larger presales than male-led/skewing releases. And ASIB fits a similar enough bill to CM. Both are female-skewing pictures, and both have large fanbases attached to them that would want to buy tickets in advance (Little Monsters, Marvelites) And simply put...yeah, that 160M number still seems about right. Granted, I've been gunning to be more conservative lately, but I think the female factor's a factor that still needs to be in consideration here. Crossing Beauty and the Beast is already an incredibly high mark (Top 10 OWs), and at least right now, I don't think the hype is quite there yet. But hey, there's still a couple more days to go.

[Joyous Legion]

When the reviews haven’t dropped yet but the lowest comp is still 160 😎

[Eric the Minion]

@Porthos post your shiz. I need to sleep

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	156	10034	16149	37.87%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:            1

Total Showings Added Today:       25

Total Seats Added Today:          2544

Total Seats Sold Today:               551

 

1.2090x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.5399x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2488x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.2792x as many tickets sold as Solo 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

1.8991x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.6970x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to AM2's 18 days]

1.9879x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-3 Comp:

 

BP:            311 tickets sold [6 sellouts/81 showings    |    3766/8279 seats left  | 54.51% sold]

IW:            549 tickets sold [6 sellouts/151 showings |   3858/13963 seats left  | 72.37% sold]

DP2:          374 tickets sold [0 sellouts/127 showings |    9812/14181 seats left | 30.81% sold]

Solo:         196 tickets sold [1 sellout/103 showings   |   6745/11010 seats left  | 38.74% sold]

JW2:          443 tickets sold [0 sellouts/118 showings |   9224/12907 seats left  | 23.75% sold]

AM2:         n/a tickets sold [0 sellouts/95 showings   |   8000/10023 seats left  | 20.18% sold]

FB2:          203 tickets sold [0 sellouts/102 showings | 10987/13876 seats left  | 20.82% sold]

CM (adj)*: 500 tickets sold [0 sellouts/156 showings |   9057/14513 seats left   | 37.59% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	145	8180	13014	37.14%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:            1

Total Showings Added Today:       20

Total Seats Added Today:          1849

Total Seats Sold Today:               446

 

1.0711x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	9057	14513	37.59%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:            1

Total Showings Added Today:       25

Total Seats Added Today:          2370

Total Seats Sold Today:               500

 

1.2090x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos post your shiz. I need to sleep

Posted.  I manually type the changes in so it takes a while.

 

And I don't give a damn how many showings were added.  500 seats sold today adjusted and 551 flat is faint worthy IMO.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

I mean it did 91 fucking percent of Infinity Fucking War tonight at the same theaters!!!  

 

Okay, it had the room to grow compared to IW. But it smoked the rest of the field, including JW2 which started its roar tonight.

 

Flat out insane, and now I REALLY wonder how much demand is being burnt locally on Thr.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, Porthos said:

I mean it did 91 fucking percent of Infinity Fucking War tonight!!!  

 

Okay, it had the room to grow compared to IW. But it smoked the rest of the field, including JW2 which started its roar tonight.

 

Flat out insane, and now I REALLY wonder how much demand is being burnt locally on Thr.

Because 1 isn’t enough 

 

this year has been so boring. we need these numbers 

[Joyous Legion]

HIGHER,

 

FURTHER,

 

FASTER,

 

BABY!

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I don't think the hype is quite there yet.

March OW record confirmed. 

 

Spoiler

Bet you thought you could slip that in unnoticed.

 

Spoiler

REALLY appreciate all you do, and CM being more frontloaded due to the presale factor for women is a great reminder and shouldn't be forgotten. 👍

 

 

[Porthos]

@CoolEric258 brings up an excellent point which perhaps hasn't been discussed enough.

 

I wasn't paying attention at the time; did Wonder Woman have an especially skewed preview to OW internal multi?  Or was there already enough of a WOM buzz to counteract that?

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@CoolEric258 brings up an excellent point which perhaps hasn't been discussed enough.

 

I wasn't paying attention at the time; did Wonder Woman have an especially skewed preview to OW internal multi?  Or was there already enough of a WOM buzz to counteract that?

WW has a 9.4 Thursday:OW multi, BatB 10.7

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Day T-3 Comp:

 

BP:            311 tickets sold [6 sellouts/81 showings    |    3766/8279 seats left  | 54.51% sold]

IW:            549 tickets sold [6 sellouts/151 showings |   3858/13963 seats left  | 72.37% sold]

DP2:          374 tickets sold [0 sellouts/127 showings |    9812/14181 seats left | 30.81% sold]

Solo:         196 tickets sold [1 sellout/103 showings   |   6745/11010 seats left  | 38.74% sold]

JW2:          443 tickets sold [0 sellouts/118 showings |   9224/12907 seats left  | 23.75% sold]

AM2:         n/a tickets sold [0 sellouts/95 showings   |   8000/10023 seats left  | 20.18% sold]

FB2:          203 tickets sold [0 sellouts/102 showings | 10987/13876 seats left  | 20.82% sold]

CM (adj)*: 500 tickets sold [0 sellouts/155 showings |   9057/14513 seats left   | 37.59% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

Perhaps lost in the topline/adjusted number:  Ant-Man and the Wasp was added to the comp list. Venom will be added tomorrow.

 

As it happens, I have the numbers for A Star is Born. for the last three days of its run.  Any reason to add it starting tomorrow, maybe in a separate post?  Or is it just too different to matter.

 

Before you chime in, remember it had a few Wed sneaks as well as the normal Thur showings.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Biggestgeekever]

A Star is Born also had fan screenings on Tuesday and Wednesday which accounted for $1.35M, which probably boosted the midweek fandango sales and is why it fell on Thursday.

[Joyous Legion]

I can appreciate a desire for caution, and ultimately no past movie can provide a perfect proportional prediction for CM. Even when we have Thursday presale numbers, there will still be a huge range of possible openings based on more fundamental uncertainties. But I’m starting to get a vibe of people seeking out reasons not to believe the numbers because the numbers seem unbelievable, and I think that often detracts from accuracy more than adds.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I wasn't paying attention at the time; did Wonder Woman have an especially skewed preview to OW internal multi?  Or was there already enough of a WOM buzz to counteract that?

It had a high multiplier for the genre, I think 85-90m was in play after that preview numbers.

 

It was at 11m lower than the first Guardian of the Galaxy 11.2 or ant-man and the wasp 11.5:

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

I can appreciate a desire for caution, and ultimately no past movie can provide a perfect proportional prediction for CM. Even when we have Thursday presale numbers, there will still be a huge range of possible openings based on more fundamental uncertainties. But I’m starting to get a vibe of people seeking out reasons not to believe the numbers because the numbers seem unbelievable, and I think that often detracts from accuracy more than adds.

I think the fact that the only two kind of close comparisons numbers wise are black panther and IW is causing a lot of hesitation. Those two were incomprehensible beasts. But the numbers are there. From multiple sources now.  

[charlie Jatinder]

Alright, here's my final prediction (for Monday :P)

 

Previews: $22mn

True Friday: $47mn

Saturday: $60mn

Sunday: $44mn

 

Total: $173mn