Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Imagine where King Arthur is having good results 

Of course Portugal is supporting that POS film.

[drdungbeetle]

No one cares about Portugal, it's like the Delaware of the EU.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Imagine where King Arthur is having good results 

A movie about people entertaining each other with just fire and sticks would probably make money in Portugal too.

[YM!]

Great 3rd wknd hold for #GotGVol2 dropping 46% to $35.1M. Today it becomes 8th #MCU pic to pass $300M dom. Totals: $301.8M, $732.6M global.

Via Gitesh.

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, drdungbeetle said:

Disney can and will drop him if it hasn't started filming and hasn't been cast. Remember what happened to the Chronicle guy's Boba Fett spinoff?

 

Apples and oranges.

 

He got fired because he was a nightmare to deal with on Fantastic Four to the point he was fired off the film in post-production (Had some friends who worked on it - Trank was despised) and that Star Wars spin-off was a ways off in development. 

 

Aladdin is casting its leads now, has its big selling point in the Genie locked down with the hiring on Will Smith and lenses later this fall.

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, YourMother said:

Great 3rd wknd hold for #GotGVol2 dropping 46% to $35.1M. Today it becomes 8th #MCU pic to pass $300M dom. Totals: $301.8M, $732.6M global.

Via Gitesh.

Very good for amazing film

[WrathOfHan]

1	N	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$36,000,000	-	3,761	-	$9,572	$36,000,000	$97	1
2	1	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$35,062,000	-46.3%	4,347	-	$8,066	$301,799,474	$200	3
3	N	Everything, Everything	WB	$12,000,000	-	2,801	-	$4,284	$12,000,000	$10	1
4	2	Snatched	Fox	$7,600,000	-61.1%	3,511	+10	$2,165	$32,782,600	$42	2
5	N	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul	Fox	$7,200,000	-	3,157	-	$2,281	$7,200,000	$22	1
6	3	King Arthur: Legend of the Sword	WB	$6,850,000	-55.4%	3,702	-	$1,850	$27,201,221	$175	2
7	4	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$3,173,565	-41.2%	2,287	-780	$1,388	$219,883,865	$250	6
8	6	The Boss Baby	Fox	$2,800,000	-37.7%	2,071	-840	$1,352	$166,152,550	-	8
9	5	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$2,403,000	-50.0%	1,792	-380	$1,341	$497,782,049	$160	10
10	7	How to be a Latin Lover	PNT	$2,200,000	-43.0%	948	-175	$2,321	$29,458,810	-	4
11	8	Lowriders	BH Tilt	$1,161,695	-51.7%	365	+70	$3,183	$4,190,080	-	2
12	11	Gifted	FoxS	$765,000	-50.4%	824	-602	$928	$22,899,058	-	7
13	18	Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer	SPC	$620,974	+62.2%	373	+220	$1,665	$2,328,450	-	6
14	12	Smurfs: The Lost Village	Sony	$520,000	-54.2%	652	-953	$798	$43,012,004	$60	7
15	9	The Circle (2017)	STX	$450,000	-74.7%	684	-1,448	$658	$20,038,784	$18	4
16	14	Born in China	BV	$425,000	-53.5%	575	-480	$739	$13,191,047	-	5
17	31	The Lovers	A24	$300,417	+139.8%	105	+82	$2,861	$554,862	-	3
18	33	Power Rangers (2017)	LGF	$235,000	+122.1%	221	+24	$1,063	$85,097,570	$100	9
19	19	The Zookeeper's Wife	Focus	$234,460	-36.0%	275	-150	$853	$16,842,176	-	8
20	17	Get Out	Uni.	$232,550	-41.5%	262	-143	$888	$174,927,255	$4.5	13
21	35	Paris Can Wait	SPC	$203,633	+106.0%	23	+19	$8,854	$334,215	-	2
22	25	A Quiet Passion	MBox	$202,837	-4.5%	130	+13	$1,560	$1,081,112	-	6
23	16	The Lost City of Z	BST	$196,679	-61.3%	217	-280	$906	$8,004,545	-	6
24	23	Logan	Fox	$180,000	-36.6%	213	-92	$845	$225,860,505	$97	12

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Apples and oranges.

 

He got fired because he was a nightmare to deal with on Fantastic Four to the point he was fired off the film in post-production (Had some friends who worked on it - Trank was despised) and that Star Wars spin-off was a ways off in development. 

 

Aladdin is casting its leads now, has its big selling point in the Genie locked down with the hiring on Will Smith and lenses later this fall.

"Lenses this fall" aka enough time for an "accidental" delay resulting in Ritchie getting dropped.

[YM!]

Worst case scenario for GV2: $360M/$450M/$810M 

Best case: $380M/$475M/$855M

[WrathOfHan]

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Pirates of the Caribbean: 85/105M (4 day)

Baywatch: 24/33M (5 day)

Guardians of the Galaxy: 21M

Alien Covenant: 18M

Everything, Everything: 7M

Snatched: 4M

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: 3.8M

King Arthur: 3.4M

Fate of the Furious: 2M

The Boss Baby: 1.8M

[RyneOh1040]

Decent for Covenant but clearly Prometheus WOM had its affect.  Great for GOTG, Marvel just can't miss.  And honestly for me the story of the weekend is Everything, Everything.  I knew from the YA book circles it was a best seller but thats a really strong result and great counter programming for a film with two virtually unknown leads.  Definitely tapped into their tween/teen audience and got people out.  Always a fan of watching 5-10 million budget films make 3-4 times that during summer.  

Edited May 21, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[ThomasNicole]

I don't think Cars 3 will do less than $ 200m if is really good like the reactions said.

It's have great promotion and will be massive in the next weeks, with good reviews this could open with $ 65m - 70m for a total around $ 210 - 240m.

 

TF5 will be a bad movie, marketing was meh, the hype doesn't feel too big... i think around $ 150m - 170m.

 

Pirates 5 is the opposite, apparently is a really fun and entertainment movie, marketing was good, the tracking is also good... i think if it's a really good could do $ 250m [and have more chances to do $ 1b than TF5, in my opinion].

[Premium George]

Actuals will be interesting.

[drdungbeetle]

I don't know how "good" Pirates is but I've heard at least some people think the movie looks cool because Will Turner is back and Javier Bardem is in it. Transformers blew the Dinobots in the last movie and has nothing new to sell.

[MikeQ]

Alien: Covenant:

 

FRI: $15.350 million

SAT: $12.025 million (-21.7%)

SUN: $8.625 million (-28.3%)

------------------------------

TOTAL: $36.0 million

 

GOTG Vol. 2:

 

FRI: $8.804 million

SAT: $15.040 million (+70.8%)

SUN: $11.218 million (-25.4%)

----------------------------

TOTAL: $35.062 million (-46.3% from last weekend)

 

It's a close one between Alien and GOTG Vol.2, but I expect Alien to clearly win the weekend, unless it somehow has a much worse Sunday drop than estimated. Even if it slips from estimates, I think it still has enough leeway to win the weekend. This is the first weekend where Disney hasn't overestimated GOTG Vol. 2's Sunday drop, so I don't expect it to increase with actuals like it has the past two weekends.

 

Peace,

Mike

[ThomasNicole]

Guardians drop is great, $ 380m sounds probably right now [unless WW really kill the legs, but i hope both will co-exist].

 

I think Guardians could steal the #1 spot with the actuals... it will be interesting to see.

[Lordmandeep]

So it's third weekend is near im3 cw and aou... yet opened 30 to 40million less

[wileECoyote]

Rank*	Title	Friday 5/19 (Estimates)	Saturday 5/20 (Estimates)	Sunday 5/21 (Estimates)	Monday 5/22
1	GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 Buena Vista 4,347	$8,804,000 +138.2% / $2,025 $275,541,474 / 15	$15,040,000 +70.8% / $3,460 $290,581,474 / 16	$11,218,000 -25.4% / $2,581 $301,799,474 / 17	N/A
2	ALIEN: COVENANT Fox 3,761	$15,350,000 -- / $4,081 $15,350,000 / 1	$12,025,000 -21.7% / $3,197 $27,375,000 / 2	$8,625,000 -28.3% / $2,293 $36,000,000 / 3	N/A

 

 

Weekend could still flip.   GotG2 hold is a little generous but AC has been going lower ever since earlier projections.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Worst case scenario for GV2: $360M/$450M/$810M 

Best case: $380M/$475M/$855M

For 360 it will have to start doing worse than CW today on-wards cause CW legs from this point will take it to 367.

[WrathOfHan]

Forecast for the rest of Alien's run:

 

Remainder of this week: 13M (49M Total)

May 26: 18M (7M weekdays, 74M Total)

Jun 2: 8M (3M weekdays, 85M Total)

Jun 9: 4M (1.5M weekdays, 90.5M Total)

Jun 16: 1.5M (800k weekdays, 92.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 95M (2.64x)

 

If next weekend's hold isn't over 55%, this could get veeeeeeeery close to 100M.