Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[franfar]

1	N	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$36,000,000	-	3,761	-	$9,572	$36,000,000	$97	1
2	1	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$35,062,000	-46.3%	4,347	-	$8,066	$301,799,474	$200	3

 

A $1 million difference. A bunch of people said that GOTG2 could surpass Alien for the weekend, and they were close. It's coming under my range of $40-45m

[Eevin]

 

1 hour ago, alisson23 said:

I love RTH, I've never seen someone with a premium account so humble as him.

You could learn a few things from Rth. I seem to remember a certain someone being confident - certain, in fact - that Power Rangers would do $100m+, so I'd eat a little bigger slice of humble pie next time around, ok?

[RyneOh1040]

4 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

I don't know how "good" Pirates is but I've heard at least some people think the movie looks cool because Will Turner is back and Javier Bardem is in it. Transformers blew the Dinobots in the last movie and has nothing new to sell.

i have a friend who saw it at CinemaCon and said it was at least entertaining.  She didn't love it but she wasn't annoyed by it like the last one.

[Caladbolg]

Disney under estimated Guardians the past 2 weekends, thinking now they may be over estimating this time. That 25.4% drop from Saturday may be too good.  Guardians holds and numbers this week have been quite close to Ultron and Civil War. Those dropped  32.4% and 33.6% respectively. That leads to me think Guardians Sunday could drop 30-34% from Saturday. hoping I'm wrong though.

[drdungbeetle]

So much for the "Wimpy kid is gonna outgross Guardians" thing, eh?

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecast for the rest of Alien's run:

 

Remainder of this week: 13M (49M Total)

May 26: 18M (7M weekdays, 74M Total)

Jun 2: 8M (3M weekdays, 85M Total)

Jun 9: 4M (1.5M weekdays, 90.5M Total)

Jun 16: 1.5M (800k weekdays, 92.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 95M (2.64x)

 

If next weekend's hold isn't over 55%, this could get veeeeeeeery close to 100M.

 

 

I don't see this having better legs than Prometheus. I see it finishing with $ 80 - 85m.

[filmnerdjamie]

Still failing to see how Pirates 5 doesn't pay for how hated 4 was (and 3 was before that), the fact that there is nothing new to the table marketing-wise (another CG-heavy baddie is after Jack Sparrow), Depp's poisonous box-office streak and the fact franchises dwindle down by the time we get the the Part 5s, by and large.

 

We just saw with Alien: Covenant. Waiting 5 years later for a sequel hoping audiences would forget how much they disliked Prometheus (to the point of hiding that this was Prometheus 2 and selling it more as Alien 5)... and they didn't. Historically speaking, audiences never forget getting burned.

[drdungbeetle]

1 minute ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Still failing to see how Pirates 5 doesn't pay for how hated 4 was (and 3 was before that), the fact that there is nothing new to the table marketing-wise (another CG-heavy baddie is after Jack Sparrow), Depp's poisonous box-office streak and the fact franchises dwindle down by the time we get the the Part 5s, by and large.

 

We just saw with Alien: Covenant. Waiting 5 years later for a sequel hoping audiences would forget how much they disliked Prometheus (to the point of hiding that this was Prometheus 2 and selling it more as Alien 5)... and they didn't. Historically speaking, audiences never forget getting burned.

It IS paying if it's only slightly over 200 mil. It's just been long enough and not been beaten to death quite as much as Transformers/Alien have.

[nomyth]

This month has been so weak outside of GOTG and I'm really starting to doubt next week as well. Looks like it's continuing the streak of weak Memorial Day weekends.

 

oh well. Leaves the market wide open for WW to explode.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

It IS paying if it's only slightly over 200 mil. It's just been long enough and not been beaten to death quite as much as Transformers/Alien have.

Plus...the Transformers-films are still relying on Michael Bay, which he may be a reason why "The Last Knight" has lesser hype this time around. Put anyone else on the director chair....and it would be a little bit better and exciting.

[Eevin]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecast for the rest of Alien's run:

 

Remainder of this week: 13M (49M Total)

May 26: 18M (7M weekdays, 74M Total)

Jun 2: 8M (3M weekdays, 85M Total)

Jun 9: 4M (1.5M weekdays, 90.5M Total)

Jun 16: 1.5M (800k weekdays, 92.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 95M (2.64x)

 

If next weekend's hold isn't over 55%, this could get veeeeeeeery close to 100M.

 

 

Can't see it holding that well, especially if WOM is really like Prometheus. 80-85 is a much more likely range. 

[MikeQ]

7 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:

Disney under estimated Guardians the past 2 weekends, thinking now they may be over estimating this time. That 25.4% drop from Saturday may be too good.  Guardians holds and numbers this week have been quite close to Ultron and Civil War. Those dropped  32.4% and 33.6% respectively. That leads to me think Guardians Sunday could drop 30-34% from Saturday. hoping I'm wrong though.

 

It's definitely possible, but it doesn't seem likely to me. GOTG Vol. 2 seems to have a different weekend pattern when it comes to Sunday drops:

 

Civil War:

1st SUN: -30.7%

2nd SUN: -34.1%

3rd SUN: -33.6%

 

Ultron:

1st SUN: -11.0% (spillover?)

2nd SUN: -33.0%

3rd SUN: -32.4%

 

GOTG Vol. 2:

1st SUN: -23.7%

2nd SUN: -25.1%

3rd SUN: -25.4% (estimated)

 

This Monday is also a holiday in Canada, which could somewhat cushion the Sunday drop even if GOTG Vol. 2 were to ordinarily drop harder on the Sunday this weekend. But who knows - you could be right. A couple weekends of mid-20% drops doesn't necessarily mean it will drop as such this weekend.

 

Peace,

Mike

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Still failing to see how Pirates 5 doesn't pay for how hated 4 was (and 3 was before that), the fact that there is nothing new to the table marketing-wise (another CG-heavy baddie is after Jack Sparrow), Depp's poisonous box-office streak and the fact franchises dwindle down by the time we get the the Part 5s, by and large.

 

We just saw with Alien: Covenant. Waiting 5 years later for a sequel hoping audiences would forget how much they disliked Prometheus (to the point of hiding that this was Prometheus 2 and selling it more as Alien 5)... and they didn't. Historically speaking, audiences never forget getting burned.

OST is not hated like Prometheus.

It's a worse movie for sure, but Pirates is a fun blockbuster movie, people expect much less and forget the bad moments easily with a good new movie.

 

Prometheus is a sci-fi, and a prequel for Alien, a classic movie, so the expectations are much bigger and strong. Also people getting amazing trailers, and they are disappointed in the end, causing much more hate.

 

I see Covenant paying for Prometheus, but also is a bad movie... so the drop are expected.

Pirates 5 just need to be entertainment to people forget OST and watching it.

[drdungbeetle]

I honestly don't know why they stuck with Bay this long. Most franchises go through multiple directors by this point and it's not like the scripting ever improved. People who hate him won't watch the movies and most people don't know who the director is. Seems like they could've at least made the movies more cheaply by swapping him out for a younger, hungrier director.

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

OST is not hated like Prometheus.

It's a worse movie for sure, but Pirates is a fun blockbuster movie, people expect much less and forget the bad moments easily with a good new movie.

 

Prometheus is a sci-fi, and a prequel for Alien, a classic movie, so the expectations are much bigger and strong. Also people getting amazing trailers, and they are disappointed in the end, causing much more hate.

 

I see Covenant paying for Prometheus, but also is a bad movie... so the drop are expected.

Pirates 5 just need to be entertainment to people forget OST and watching it.

I don't even remember Pirates 4. It was just sort of "there" as opposed to something like Revenge of the Fallen where you can clearly remember WHY it was bad. Also it was like 2011 as opposed to 2014.

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, drdungbeetle said:

I honestly don't know why they stuck with Bay this long. Most franchises go through multiple directors by this point and it's not like the scripting ever improved. People who hate him won't watch the movies and most people don't know who the director is. Seems like they could've at least made the movies more cheaply by swapping him out for a younger, hungrier director.

I mean why would they ... it all boils down to $$, and that Franchise is making a killing.

[drdungbeetle]

1 minute ago, Subzero said:

I mean why would they ... it all boils down to $$, and that Franchise is making a killing.

They could have made "a killing" with a younger, cheaper director and reduced the below the line costs from resigning Bay 5 million times. Very few people watch Transformers "because Bay directed it", hell he has more detractors than fans overall. Most people who watch Transformers at this point are Transformers fanboys.

[PPZVGOS]

18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecast for the rest of Alien's run:

 

Remainder of this week: 13M (49M Total)

May 26: 18M (7M weekdays, 74M Total)

Jun 2: 8M (3M weekdays, 85M Total)

Jun 9: 4M (1.5M weekdays, 90.5M Total)

Jun 16: 1.5M (800k weekdays, 92.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 95M (2.64x)

 

If next weekend's hold isn't over 55%, this could get veeeeeeeery close to 100M.

 

 

 

Hope you are right. I guess it would be sort of OK if AC could somehow limp over $100M. AC OW makes me feel:

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

16 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Still failing to see how Pirates 5 doesn't pay for how hated 4 was (and 3 was before that), the fact that there is nothing new to the table marketing-wise (another CG-heavy baddie is after Jack Sparrow), Depp's poisonous box-office streak and the fact franchises dwindle down by the time we get the the Part 5s, by and large.

 

We just saw with Alien: Covenant. Waiting 5 years later for a sequel hoping audiences would forget how much they disliked Prometheus (to the point of hiding that this was Prometheus 2 and selling it more as Alien 5)... and they didn't. Historically speaking, audiences never forget getting burned.

Well, the thing is though....that the early reactions/reviews for "Dead Men Tell No Tales"...so far, has been a bit better than "On Stranger Tides". And this film has the comeback of Orlando Bloom.

 

You're just saying this because you hated the previous POTC-sequels. You hated them. YOU hated them. That's why you think/want Pirates 5 to fail. Mostly anti POTC-sequel....biased-ness.

 

What if the film performs above your expectations? $100M+ DOM is the floor, conservative.

 

And if the film does overperform at the box office.....are you going to blame us then?

Edited May 21, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

I don't even remember Pirates 4. It was just sort of "there" as opposed to something like Revenge of the Fallen where you can clearly remember WHY it was bad. Also it was like 2011 as opposed to 2014.

Exactly, Pirates 4 is not good, but also not bad enough to be remembered by this... the 6 years hiatus also help.

The only way i see the 5th doing less than $ 200m is if it's a bomb.