5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[dxmatrixdt]

21 minutes ago, Manchester by the Tree said:

how would that happen? isn't today the last day of holiday? or is Wednesday a holiday too?

Just from being a potential WOM phenomenon.  (like Get Out).  Usually for a movie like this one would think it is frontloaded, but the dailies have gone out to be like this:

2.1 + 3.61 + 6.00 + 7.665 + 6.80 + 5.50 ..... with 5.50 being the Monday estimate.  It seems this movie has just been doing alot of growing and not much settling.  dropping 1/3 from Monday to stay on top of opening Wednesday seems highly unlikely though, but it is possible.  The possibility being within a small small range.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Matrix4You

[baumer]

If BD goes up by 10% Tuesday that puts it at 6 mill. Give it a 35% drop Wednesday and its over 4 still.

[dxmatrixdt]

Baby Driver could hold flat on Tuesday at 5.5 and drop 34.42% to match the 3.607 opening Wednesday of Baby Driver.

[dxmatrixdt]

Wonder Woman could hold flat on Tuesday at 4.3 and drop 35.71% Wednesday to match the $2,764,377 from last Wednesday.

[dxmatrixdt]

^^and Transformers would not have to do much to match last Wednesday since the numbers are so low to begin with.  IT JUST NEEDS TO SHOW UP!!!

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Baby Driver could hold flat on Tuesday at 5.5 and drop 34.42% to match the 3.607 opening Wednesday of Baby Driver.

 

2 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Wonder Woman could hold flat on Tuesday at 4.3 and drop 35.71% Wednesday to match the $2,764,377 from last Wednesday.

 

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

^^and Transformers would not have to do much to match last Wednesday since the numbers are so low to begin with.  IT JUST NEEDS TO SHOW UP!!!

 

with 2006 as day and date comparison,

Superman Returns dropped 50.52% from Monday July 3rd to Wednesday July 5th.

Devil Wears Prada dropped 41.29%

 

Here are some others:

Click -35.41%

Cars -44.9%

Nacho Libre -41.81%

The Lake House -41.59%

Tokyo Drift -32.05%

The Break-Up -42.05%

Da Vinci Code -54.51%

X-Men 3 -50.74%

Over the Hedge -29.8%

Waist Deep -42.71%

[Cochofles]

39 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

The two of them are going to have another similarity calendar-wise. Two weeks after that direct competition, they get a partner studio film that can prop them up. GotG2 fell 25% with the assistance of Cars 3. And that was with its biggest theater loss by a wide margin. How good is WW going to do with Dunkirk's help?

 

 

 Could someone please explain this to me? What does that mean?

How did Cars 3  help GOTGv2? How will Dunkirk  help Wonder Woman 's box office?

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 Could someone please explain this to me? What does that mean?

How did Cars 3  help GOTGv2? How will Dunkirk  help Wonder Woman 's box office?

 

My understanding is that they're basically double features. Studios can count the money from a double-showing of two movies and the money technically goes towards both of the box office grosses. So Disney can get them to show both Cars 3 and GOTG in order to boost each others BO.

 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this.

 

(@baumer maybe you could explain this in the (The Real) Everything you Always Wanted to Know About The Box Office But Were Afraid To thread )

Edited July 4, 2017 by aabattery

[Agafin]

7 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 Could someone please explain this to me? What does that mean?

How did Cars 3  help GOTGv2? How will Dunkirk  help Wonder Woman 's box office?

 

I think he's referring to Double features ( two movies for the price of one). Studios generally get some theaters to pair their latest release with an earlier one like that to boost receipts. That generally leads to the older movie having very good holds (sometimes increases even, depending on how much it was grossing by then).

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

Great numbers all around for all movies. Really thinking WW gets to 400. 

 

You'll win the bet.

[kayumanggi]

39 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

With this being the 35th Spider-Man film there's no way it's getting the same kind of legs that Wonder Woman has not even close. I could see it getting over 3 but that's about it.

 

[baumer]

16 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

My understanding is that they're basically double features. Studios can count the money from a double-showing of two movies and the money technically goes towards both of the box office grosses. So Disney can get them to show both Cars 3 and GOTG in order to boost each others BO.

 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this.

 

(@baumer maybe you could explain this in the (The Real) Everything you Always Wanted to Know About The Box Office But Were Afraid To thread )

 

It's also straight-up fudge. We had some fun with this back in 2009 when Harry Potter opened on a Wednesday and then Terminator Salvation all the sudden increase by a billion percent that day. Studios often somehow manage to move money from one movie to another when another one of their films opens up.

 

You will notice that the hangover did not benefit from Harry Potter opening because that was rated R but they can get away with it with a PG-13 Terminator film.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-07-15&track=terminatorsalvation.htm

[Cochofles]

26 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

My understanding is that they're basically double features. Studios can count the money from a double-showing of two movies and the money technically goes towards both of the box office grosses. So Disney can get them to show both Cars 3 and GOTG in order to boost each others BO.

 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this.

 

(@baumer maybe you could explain this in the (The Real) Everything you Always Wanted to Know About The Box Office But Were Afraid To thread )

 

21 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

I think he's referring to Double features ( two movies for the price of one). Studios generally get some theaters to pair their latest release with an earlier one like that to boost receipts. That generally leads to the older movie having very good holds (sometimes increases even, depending on how much it was grossing by then).

 

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It's also straight-up fudge. We had some fun with this back in 2009 when Harry Potter opened on a Wednesday and then Terminator Salvation all the sudden increase by a billion percent that day. Studios often somehow manage to move money from one movie to another when another one of their films opens up.

 

You will notice that the hangover did not benefit from Harry Potter opening because that was rated R but they can get away with it with a PG-13 Terminator film.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-07-15&track=terminatorsalvation.htm

 

Thanks, y'all.

Question: so, if they do a double feature of Wonder Woman and Dunkirk, does that mean that they will divvy up the resulting box office between the two films or that they will somehow assign the same amount to each film? This is probably a dumb question...  

[aabattery]

Just now, Cochofles said:

 

 

 

Thanks, y'all.

Question: so, if they do a double feature of Wonder Woman and Dunkirk, does that mean that they will divvy up the resulting box office between the two films or that they will somehow assign the same amount to each film? This is probably a dumb question...  

 

I think the total goes towards both films. Not split up or anything. Keep in mind this is straight out of my ass so I could be way off base here.

[baumer]

Yep. Goes to both. Also drive ins. 

Also Puerto Rico.

AKA fudge

[EmpireCity]

The fudge doesn't really happen often or have that much of an impact.  There are only a small few relevant examples of it happening that mattered with Spectre being the most obvious.  

[MCKillswitch123]

Gorgeous numbers for Baby and Diana. WW is one step closer to edging the Summer crown away from Guardians in the most exciting race for the Summer #1 in fucking years. Also, if Baby Driver stays flat from Monday or even increases, it'll be at low to mid 40's by Tuesday. Should it have a good drop this weekend (which, w/Spider-Man boosted double features, it should), 100M is extremely likely. Which would be another massive win for the Tomato Law this year

[aabattery]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

The fudge doesn't really happen often or have that much of an impact.  There are only a small few relevant examples of it happening that mattered with Spectre being the most obvious.  

 

Do double features play a part in the small drops we sometimes see, or is that another thing we overestimate the impact of?

[Brainbug]

Noob question (pls forgive me) but why do studios sometimes fudge films like Spectre to century marks like 100/200M? Is it because the number then looks better on paper or gain they something in the post-theatralic run?

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Noob question (pls forgive me) but why do studios sometimes fudge films like Spectre to century marks like 100/200M? Is it because the number then looks better on paper or gain they something in the post-theatralic run?

 

They can sell the TV rights for more moola if they hit those goalposts, I believe. 

 

There's probably some other reasons, but I think that's the main one.