Wednesday Numbers: SMH 4.9M, Apes 4.4M, DM3 2.8M, BD 1.2M, WW 0.91M

[Cochofles]

8 minutes ago, Caramba said:

This is definitely not a solo  "pure" Spiderman movie.

Some of the ugliest, worst designed posters of a major motion picture I have ever seen. Even by CBM posters' standards, those are lazy AF and unappealing.

[AHepBurn]

3 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Sorry, but there's just no way Batman v Superman wouldn't have done significantly better if it would've been well-received. This was a sure-fire billion dollar grosser and the fact that it fell short of that is entirely because it had horrible word-of-mouth. Comparing it to Spider-Man: Homecoming isn't fair IMO because they're two very different films.

This isn't really true, though since blockbusters are in large part immune to critical reception and it's basically based on if the audience wants to see it badly enough. Would it have taken in more money? Sure, but to say it's guaranteed X DOM and X WW is something we can't say. SM:H is proof of that. Great reviews, has Marvel's most popular character in general in Spider-Man and has Marvel's most popular movie character in Iron Man. Surefire $400mil DOM $1bil WW since RDJ hasn't gone below that yet, right? And yet here we are and it's not going to touch either of those numbers.

 

It's also much easier for a film with a smaller opening to have a larger multiplier because at some point you just run out of audience interested in the movie. If you go to The Numbers and look at the DOM performance of the biggest performing CBM - The Avengers, Age of Ultron, Iron Man 3, Civil War - you'll see that the final take all come in well below the shaded region of possible box office gross that the site gives based on the opening weekend. Avengers was considered a phenomenon and it's the only one of those four to stay in the shaded section. It doesn't matter that all those are well reviewed and had a good fanbase, at some point you just run out of audience.

 

If you look at the range for BvS, it falls well in line with those movies considering its massive opening and trends but just a little lower. If it was better received, would it have taken higher? Again yes, but I don't thin, the range wouldn't have really been much too different. I'm guessing $40mil DOM $80mil WW give or take $10mil on each.

 

Additionally SM:H should have reminded people at the very least that it's not the character itself that's a draw but whatever situational circumstances surrounding the character that make the box office. People were saying that BvS was going to break a billion easily because they saw that the Nolan movies broke a billion and that was wrong. The combination of Nolan, Bale and Ledger helped break that Batman trilogy wide open, not the character of Batman and Affleck was a new Batman. Similarly people were expecting big things from Holland Spider-Man because he was so well received, but it was the lightning in a bottle Raimi and Mcguire combination that really set the initial Spider-Man movies on the map.

[Brainbug]

18 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

Some of the ugliest, worst designed posters of a major motion picture I have ever seen. Even by CBM posters' standards, those are lazy AF and unappealing.

 

The posters for Homecoming are among the worst blockbuster posters of all time imo. They never fail to make me laugh or atleast cuckle when i see them.

[GrimFandango]

1 hour ago, Cochofles said:

Wow. 

I still cannot believe that Wondy not only weathered hurricane Spidey, she took it like a champion and then some. 

My girl's a beast.

 

You just reminded me that I bought this issue--where did I put it? I haven't read it yet!

 

[Cochofles]

54 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Sorry, but there's just no way Batman v Superman wouldn't have done significantly better if it would've been well-received. This was a sure-fire billion dollar grosser and the fact that it fell short of that is entirely because it had horrible word-of-mouth. Comparing it to Spider-Man: Homecoming isn't fair IMO because they're two very different films.

In terms of box office, their second weekend drops were close enough (69 % BVS, 62 % SM:H), and I would not be shocked if Spidey's third weekend drop were as steep or steeper than BVS's third (54 %). So it doesn't really look like their word of mouth is that different. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

In terms of box office, their second weekend drops were close enough (69 % BVS, 62 % SM:H), and I would not be shocked if Spidey's third weekend drop were as steep or steeper than BVS's third (54 %). So it doesn't really look like their word of mouth is that different. 

BvS legs through 2nd Wed 1.63X

SMH legs through 2nd Wed 1.92X

 

It's not close...heck Spidey will have better legs by Friday than BvS did all run...that's pretty different...

[Johnny Tran]

Can we agree that iron man and Spider-Man are marvel's two biggest characters? If so  then hold them to the same high standards, that's all. The backflips people will do to say SMH isn't disappointing are indeed amazing.

[Johnny Tran]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

BvS legs through 2nd Wed 1.63X

SMH legs through 2nd Wed 1.92X

 

It's not close...heck Spidey will have better legs by Friday than BvS did all run...that's pretty different...

Because the $117 OW was also less than these characters teamed in the MCU should be doing.

[Vecc]

Hi! I've spent the last couple of days lurking around for some Baby Driver numbers. I'm rooting for it to get to 100M.

These are the weekly drops of the past 8 days:
-37.6%
-33.2%
-32.5%
-31.3%
-35.8%
-28.5%
-29.1%
-27.6%

 

I know the market is getting crowded with this week's new releases, but I think if BD can keep the drops around 35%, it will cross the 100M mark by the end of summer.

[JB33]

56 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The posters for Homecoming are among the worst blockbuster posters of all time imo. They never fail to make me laugh or atleast cuckle when i see them.

 

They're so cartoon-y! Same with the Black Panther teaser poster. I don't know what's happened with Marvel since DOCTOR STRANGE but the aesthetic of both their posters and the movies themselves have suddenly changed. I can't really explain it. I noticed it first and foremost with the SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING teaser. 

 

Even DOCTOR STRANGE, with its more fantastical subject matter, looked more grounded and real.

 

Is it just me??

Edited July 21, 2017 by JB33

[Mojoguy]

That's a fine theater count drop for WW

Comparisons at the same point of time:

AoU - 1,662
TDKR - 1,987
Avengers - 2,230

[BadAtGender]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

Because the $117 OW was also less than these characters teamed in the MCU should be doing.

 

That's... not really true.

 

It isn't like there are discrete audiences for Spider-Man and Iron Man and you add them together. Rather there is a ton of overlap already between them.

 

If we take, say, the 90-odd million that TASM2 got in its OW as the "core Spider-Man audience" (~$97m, adjusted for inflation), then we could probably assume that the extra $20m are Iron Man/MCU fans who came along for the ride.

 

But the audiences aren't static, either. There are some people who dig Spider-Man, but hate Iron Man, so they might avoid it. There are people who dig Iron Man, but don't care about Spider-Man, and see no point in checking out a movie where IM is a decided second fiddle. There are people who might have been interested, but aren't really interested in keeping track of everything that's going on, so they may have passed on it.

 

As the MCU matures, and it continues to push the crossovers between characters, it's going to limit the ceiling for the audience. There is a dedicated core, yes, that will probably stick around for a long time, but the potential to grab new audience members decreases with every film. Because there's a tricky path to follow: to grab new people you need to explain some things, but you can't do so in a way that bores your experienced audience. That's not easy to do, especially if you need to keep churning out content.

 

In many ways, it might help to look at Homecoming as an apology. To the existing fanbase. It's a statement of "we messed up with the Amazing series, here's a good film to entertain you." But because it isn't an origin, it's actually not entirely great for new audiences. The hope is probably that if the apology is accepted, that will garner good will for SMH2. Of course, then it'll be part an even MORE mature franchise so the ceiling will probably be even more limited.

 

 

[Cochofles]

58 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

It's a statement of "we messed up with the Amazing series, here's a good film to entertain you." But because it isn't an origin, it's actually not entirely great for new audiences. The hope is probably that if the apology is accepted, that will garner good will for SMH2. Of course, then it'll be part an even MORE mature franchise so the ceiling will probably be even more limited.

 

 

I know that many fans are praying for a Batman Begins/The Dark Knight-type scenario for the box office for SM:H 2, but I cannot imagine it increasing it from this one (unless they throw Starlord, Tony Stark, Cap, and Black Panther in the mix...)

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

I know that many fans are praying for a Batman Begins/The Dark Knight-type scenario for the box office for SM:H 2, but I cannot imagine it increasing it from this one (unless they throw Starlord, Tony Stark, Cap, and Black Panther in the mix...)

Unless a major star dies that ain't happening.

[YM!]

SMH2 needs to move from that July 2019 spot.

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

SMH2 needs to move from that July 2019 spot.

It's rough, but I think it's okay...ending Star Wars and Avengers events will have worn off and Spidey will again be the "3rd man in"...opening against Pets 2 isn't great, but Pets wasn't great and I think it will see weakness - I'd say Pets 2 is in more trouble in the head to head, stuffed between Toys 4 and Lion King, BUT Toys 4 may have the "unwanted sequel" effect dragging it down a little...and I think with Peter aging up, the plot will likewise age up, especially if Peter has seen some action in the Avengers movies...

 

 

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's rough, but I think it's okay...ending Star Wars and Avengers events will have worn off and Spidey will again be the "3rd man in"...opening against Pets 2 isn't great, but Pets wasn't great and I think it will see weakness - I'd say Pets 2 is in more trouble in the head to head, stuffed between Toys 4 and Lion King, BUT Toys 4 may have the "unwanted sequel" effect dragging it down a little...and I think with Peter aging up, the plot will likewise age up, especially if Peter has seen some action in the Avengers movies...

 

 

Still Fox/Marvel's untitled film and The Batman (my guess for the 6/14/19 DCEU film) back to back in June might effect Homecoming 2.

[BadAtGender]

20 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

I know that many fans are praying for a Batman Begins/The Dark Knight-type scenario for the box office for SM:H 2, but I cannot imagine it increasing it from this one (unless they throw Starlord, Tony Stark, Cap, and Black Panther in the mix...)

 

I could see it increasing somewhat from this one. It is getting pretty positive response, even if the legs aren't looking so great. So instead of a 300 or whatever finish, I could see a 140/350 situation.

 

But it probably won't go huge, no.

[Subzero]

Pacific Rim2 teaser Not sure if anyone already posted this ...

 

 

What is a Jaeger? It's you, times a thousand. Now accepting pilot applications at https://t.co/wmtSHdTiHq. #PacificRimUprising pic.twitter.com/NUaOoRQf8t

— Pacific Rim (@PacificRim) July 20, 2017

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Still Fox/Marvel's untitled film and The Batman (my guess for the 6/14/19 DCEU film) back to back in June might effect Homecoming 2.

Now, I'm not sure that's a great spot for Batman...3 weeks after the epic ending of Star Wars and a week before Toy Story 4, but not on Father's Day weekend...I don't know that anything big will want to claim June, and you might get lesser comic heroes then...

Edited July 21, 2017 by TwoMisfits