DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[La Binoche]

47 Meters Down losing more than half of its screen count but dropping only 36%

[YM!]

Also anyone else think Emoji can do $40M+ on OW?

[Ethan Hunt]

4 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

I understand the lack of a main character is a complaint for a lot of people, even if personally I thought their being no main character worked to the films advantage. 

And see I think that was the right choice on Nolan's part. It worked. It put you there with all these strangers. I thought I loved when I walked out of the theatre but I just haven't though about it. And when it up beside other motives from this year that I do love I find myself saying yeah I think I liked those more

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

JL O/U $425M domestic anyone?

I think it matches BvS numbers 

[narniadis]

I don't understand Disney. They have overestimated the sunday drop for cars 3 every week...... stupid

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Also anyone else think Emoji can do $40M+ on OW?

 

Not a chance in hell.  35M is the maximum I see it at.

[Ethan Hunt]

Think low 30s for Emoji

[IronJimbo]

So how much is Dunkirk going to make?

 

 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

JL O/U $425M domestic anyone?

Splitting WONDR and BVS (for which I have no good reason but feels right)

(330 + 410)/2 = 370

YES, I AM GOING WITH 410 

[Blaze Heatnix]

Intense numbers for Wonder Woman.

 

Probably got a boost thanks to the Justice League trailer, which is great.

 

Bad drop for Apes

 

Better drop that expected for Spidey, but still not a great domestic performance

[Zakiyyah6]

I think Emoji will be lucky to hit Captain Underparts numbers.

[That One Girl]

 

 

What I don't understand is how one is perceived as an "OK" debut with 18M, yet another makes merely 1M less and is considered DOA.

[a2k]

First time after Potter, WB gets the summer crown. The 5 years in between Disney got it 4 times and Universal got it once.

 

Year	TotalGross	Change	Days inSeason	Avg.	Movies	Avg.	Avg.Drop*	#1 Movie	Gross	% ofTotal
2017	$2,644.3	-40.6%	122	$21.7	144	$18.4	-52.3%	Wonder Woman	$389.0	14.7%
2016	$4,452.1	-0.2%	122	$36.5	250	$17.8	-50.7%	Finding Dory	$486.3	10.9%
2015	$4,460.9	+9.9%	129	$34.6	252	$17.7	-50.5%	Jurassic World	$652.3	14.6%
2014	$4,058.0	-16.3%	122	$33.3	230	$17.6	-47.6%	Guardians of the Galaxy	$333.2	8.2%
2013	$4,851.1	+12.7%	122	$39.8	232	$20.9	-49.4%	Iron Man 3	$409.0	8.4%
2012	$4,305.2	-0.5%	122	$35.3	224	$19.2	-49.5%	The Avengers	$623.4	14.5%
2011	$4,326.7	+2.6%	122	$35.5	203	$21.3	-50.6%	Harry Potter / Deathly Hallows (P2)	$381.0	8.8%

 

Good news is that WB will keep the crown even when Dunkirk overtakes WONDR with 8x.

[MrPink]

Something interesting I found in Variety's weekend write-up:

 

 http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian-2-1202503892/

 

Quote

But let’s start with the good. Christopher Nolan’s World War II film from Warner Bros. is flying past earlier projections to a $50.5 million opening weekend from 3,720 locations. $11.7 million of that total came from Imax screens alone — that’s 23% of the total market share from 402 locations. That $50.5 million number is a good one considering it is expected to have a large multiple, and continue to play well through August. The movie’s production budget was reportedly just under $100 million, although earlier reports speculated that it was much higher.

 

After tax credits, etc?  If this is truly the case (somewhat skeptical but wouldn't be surprise if the $150 budget might be a bit high as well), Dunkirk should pull an easy profit for WB

Edited July 23, 2017 by MrPink

[a2k]

1 minute ago, That EddieKaspbrak Guy said:

What I don't understand is how one is perceived as an "OK" debut with 18M, yet another makes merely 1M less and is considered DOA.

Great Wall was also DOA imo.

[a2k]

I also think shit will happen and Emoji will crack 30 ow. Considering it's an original animation 30 ow usually means 100+ dom.

[Zakiyyah6]

A stabilizing drop for Spidey, a terrible drop for Apes, which quite frankly didn't open that well in the first place and more good drops for Baby Driver and Wonder Woman. Great openings for both Dunkirk and Girls Trip. Terrible but expected opening for Valerian.

 

Speaking of Wonder Woman. Biggest movie of the summer in North America. And yeah, it is a lock to be that.

Edited July 23, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[YSLDC]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

Something interesting I found in Variety's weekend write-up:

 

 http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian-2-1202503892/

 

 

After tax credits, etc?  If this is truly the case (somewhat skeptical but wouldn't be surprise if the $150 budget might be a bit high as well), Dunkirk should pull an easy profit for WB

Nolan takes 20% of the box office, so not so fast.

[MuffinMan]

8 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Something interesting I found in Variety's weekend write-up:

 

 http://variety.com/2017/film/news/box-office-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian-2-1202503892/

 

 

After tax credits, etc?  If this is truly the case (somewhat skeptical but wouldn't be surprise if the $150 budget might be a bit high as well), Dunkirk should pull an easy profit for WB

 

THR is also reporting the same thing:

"Dunkirk will need sizeable staying power in order to recoup a net production budget of $100 million and a major marketing spend."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-dunkirk-conquers-competition-505m-debut-valerian-bombs-1023700

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, That EddieKaspbrak Guy said:

 

 

What I don't understand is how one is perceived as an "OK" debut with 18M, yet another makes merely 1M less and is considered DOA.

 

Because China. The Great Wall had Chinese money and made 170M in China. Unless Valerian repeats that performance in France, it won't match TGW OS.