Dunkirk Tuesday Numbers: Dunkirk 4.48...WW 575K

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Jeez iJackSparrow has been nothing but a problem lately.

 

Let's just all agree how astonishing SMH's run is, how insane WoM fuelled those historical legs that ended up giving a once in a lifetime performance for Sony. I am predicting at least $600m for the next one. Getting cautious mates...

That was never what I said. What I said is that in context of a second reboot in five years, what Homecoming is pulling off is amazing. That's what I call a civilized discussion. If you can name me the last reboot that got this kind of critical acclaim, went above $300m at ease and it's bound to have a shot at becoming the highest grossing superhero film worldwide, be my guest. That's unprecedented. It never happened, the closest to that was Batman Begins. Do I think that the sequel could go all TDK on us? Hell no. Do I think it will keep healthily growing? Yes. It's not that hard. 

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

That was never what I said. What I said is that in context of a second reboot in five years, what Homecoming is pulling off is amazing. That's what I call a civilized discussion. If you can name me the last reboot that got this kind of critical acclaim, went above $300m at ease and it's bound to have a shot at becoming the highest grossing superhero film worldwide, be my guest. That's unprecedented. It never happened, the closest to that was Batman Begins. Do I think that the sequel could go all TDK on us? Hell no. Do I think it will keep healthily growing? Yes. It's not that hard. 

When we are using words like astonishing or amazing to describe a run, it goes without a saying, that the film outdid whatever the expectations where. I am pretty confident that where SMH is headed is the place that most people though it would end up. Actually, before the OW I was seeing 1b predictions which, where far from unreasonable given the presence of the two most popular MCU heroes in it and the weak competition it is facing.

You keep playing the reboot card but yet there is almost non-existent comparisons when talking about the superheroe golden age era. I don't really see what's so remarkable. 

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

When we are using words like astonishing or amazing to describe a run, it goes without a saying, that the film outdid whatever the expectations where. I am pretty confident that where SMH is headed is the place that most people though it would end up. Actually, before the OW I was seeing 1b predictions which, where far from unreasonable given the presence of the two most popular MCU heroes in it and the weak competition it is facing.

You keep playing the reboot card but yet there is almost non-existent comparisons when talking about the superheroe golden age era. I don't really see what's so remarkable. 

There were $1b predictions for Vol. 2 as well. Is that run bad because some people thought it'd hit $1b and it hit "just" $860m?

 

Hmm, I keep playing "the reboot card" because it's a legitimate card. Man of Steel was considered great by their stans - one of them among us right now and attacking Homecoming's run viciously - because it "almost hit 300m". Well, Homecoming will manage to cross $300m by two weekends from now at most, with its run far from over. Rebooting superhero films isn't an easy task. It happened five times before: Batman Begins, Superman Returns, The Incredible Hulk, The Amazing Spider-Man and Man of Steel. Neither of these films were critical darlings or had a box office run like Homecoming is enjoying, only Batman Begins gathered a true cult following. Homecoming is getting more than most of the others superhero films when you don't talk about reboots either, it has a good shot of beating BvS both domestically and worldwide, a good shot of becoming the highest grossing superhero film of the year and this is all from a reboot.

 

I think that @XO21 said better than me at the international thread:

On 31/07/2017 at 5:28 AM, XO21 said:

GOGT2 = $860m -> coming off a beloved movie ->  big success

 

Homecoming = $860-850m (lower budget) -> coming off 3 mixed to bad received movies that hurt DOM and Europe #s -> disappointing

 

-ignoring the exchange rates were far better when ASM and ASM2 were released-. Today ASM2 would have made $620-650m

 

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

There were $1b predictions for Vol. 2 as well. Is that run bad because some people thought it'd hit $1b and it hit "just" $860m?

 

Hmm, I keep playing "the reboot card" because it's a legitimate card. Man of Steel was considered great by their stans - one of them among us right now and attacking Homecoming's run viciously - because it "almost hit 300m". Well, Homecoming will manage to cross $300m by two weekends from now at most, with its run far from over. Rebooting superhero films isn't an easy task. It happened five times before: Batman Begins, Superman Returns, The Incredible Hulk, The Amazing Spider-Man and Man of Steel. Neither of these films were critical darlings or had a box office run like Homecoming is enjoying, only Batman Begins gathered a true cult following. Homecoming is getting more than most of the others superhero films when you don't talk about reboots either, it has a good shot of beating BvS both domestically and worldwide, a good shot of becoming the highest grossing superhero film of the year and this is all from a reboot.

 

I think that @XO21 said better than me at the international thread:

 

 

7 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

There were $1b predictions for Vol. 2 as well. Is that run bad because some people thought it'd hit $1b and it hit "just" $860m?

 

Hmm, I keep playing "the reboot card" because it's a legitimate card. Man of Steel was considered great by their stans - one of them among us right now and attacking Homecoming's run viciously - because it "almost hit 300m". Well, Homecoming will manage to cross $300m by two weekends from now at most, with its run far from over. Rebooting superhero films isn't an easy task. It happened five times before: Batman Begins, Superman Returns, The Incredible Hulk, The Amazing Spider-Man and Man of Steel. Neither of these films were critical darlings or had a box office run like Homecoming is enjoying, only Batman Begins gathered a true cult following. Homecoming is getting more than most of the others superhero films when you don't talk about reboots either, it has a good shot of beating BvS both domestically and worldwide, a good shot of becoming the highest grossing superhero film of the year and this is all from a reboot.

 

I think that @XO21 said better than me at the international thread:

 

No one ever doubted that SMH was a success, the problem started when you used stronger words like astonoshing/amazing blah blah blah.

Guardian's Vol 2 didnt have an astonoshing run either imo, although it was more impressive given how much it increased from the first one.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

 

No one ever doubted that SMH was a success, the problem started when you used stronger words like astonoshing/amazing blah blah blah.

Guardian's Vol 2 didnt have an astonoshing run either imo, although it was more impressive given how much it increased from the first one.

So you are telling me that "the problem" is how I think that Homecoming's run is amazing? That's my fault? LOL, I've missed the memo that made my opinions so damn important around here. My opinion is that it's incredible coming from three poorly received films, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it becomes the highest grossing superhero film of the year, with neither Ragnarok or Justice League able to beat it. I fail to see how that's a bad performance for a reboot, but to each their own. 

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

So you are telling me that "the problem" is how I think that Homecoming's run is amazing? That's my fault? LOL, I've missed the memo that made my opinions so damn important around here. My opinion is that it's incredible coming from three poorly received films, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it becomes the highest grossing superhero film of the year, with neither Ragnarok or Justice League able to beat it. I fail to see how that's a bad performance for a reboot, but to each their own. 

...no need to continue this it won't lead anywhere

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

...no need to continue this it won't lead anywhere

Of course it won't. That's because the discussion never even  made sense to begin with. A film with a RT score rating of 92%, average rating of 7.6, an audience score of 90% (EXACT same numbers as Wonder Woman, mind you, with plus 0.1 on its average rating for Homecoming), going for $320m plus and $850m+ WW isn't a "good run", it's freaking amazing. It's what studio execs dream of when it comes to reboots. Reeves would be lucky to get anywhere near this, and I truly hope it does. But don't think for a second it'll be easy, what Wonder Woman pulled it off this year won't be easy for the freaking Justice League to repeat it, let alone Batman on it's third reboot (same number of reboots as Spidey). 

[Dementeleus]

SMH's numbers are in the middle of most predictions here (just check the summer game thread). It's a solid run but hardly spectacular or amazing. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 hour ago, iJackSparrow said:

Of course it won't. That's because the discussion never even  made sense to begin with. A film with a RT score rating of 92%, average rating of 7.6, an audience score of 90% (EXACT same numbers as Wonder Woman, mind you, with plus 0.1 on its average rating for Homecoming), going for $320m plus and $850m+ WW isn't a "good run", it's freaking amazing. It's what studio execs dream of when it comes to reboots. Reeves would be lucky to get anywhere near this, and I truly hope it does. But don't think for a second it'll be easy, what Wonder Woman pulled it off this year won't be easy for the freaking Justice League to repeat it, let alone Batman on it's third reboot (same number of reboots as Spidey). 

Batman's solo films has been way more spaced out than Spider-Man's films plus Batman is coming off the acclaimed TDK Trilogy which two of those films did $400M+ while Spider-Man came off TASM 2 which did $200M. I think the appetite for another solo Batman film is bigger than the appetite was for another solo Spider-Man film. But yes let's not overestimate this film nor be disappointed if it only grosses $300M domestic and $800M worldwide. Like the Raimi films will be the peak of Spider-Man in North America chances are Batman will never again reach the heights of TDK and TDKR in North America. And there's nothing wrong with that. 

 

As far as Homecoming it is hyperbole to call its run outstanding or amazing but I do think people are underplaying how well its recovered after that 62% weekend drop which a number of people were claiming it meant Homecoming would not reach $300M domestic. A 2.7x multiplier for a film that has very well known characters is very good indeed. 

 

 

[Cochofles]

4 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

It's a solid run but hardly spectacular or amazing. 

Exactly.

Nobody has said that the film flopped or that it's doing badly.

It's when totally inappropriate terms are bandied about ["astonishing run" "incredible legs" "insane word of mouth"] that people remind iJack that the overall trajectory of the film's box office does not show signs of anything that could be considered astonishing, incredible, or insane.

Nothing wrong with solid, ok, decent, and good.

[Sony is quite happy with the results, I am sure]

 

[ZattMurdock]

9 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

SMH's numbers are in the middle of most predictions here (just check the summer game thread). It's a solid run but hardly spectacular or amazing. 

I'm siding with Scott Mendelson on this one. He did an article one week ago claiming that it was a "toss-up" if Homecoming would make to $300m. That's obviously not the case anymore, with that said, his arguments about what Spider-Man: Homecoming is are sound, as far as I'm concerned, here are some highlights:

 

Quote

Now, adjusted for inflation, it still has a way to go, as the $262 million domestic total for the Andrew Garfield/Emma Stone melodrama would be around $297m today. It has a shot at crossing that arbitrary milestone, but it will depend on holding onto screens and getting kids into the theaters on weekend afternoons over the next month. At this point, $300m+ is a coin toss. But, for the record, the Tom Holland/Robert Downey Jr./Michael Keaton/Zendaya caper cost just $175m to produce, which is less than the $235-$255m budgets for the two Amazing Spider-Man movies.

 

Quote

And even if it falls short of the $300 million+ milestone, it’s still a relative winner. First, critics and audiences seemed to have enjoyed it, so the next installment may get a bump. Furthermore, that next installment will arrive just months after the “series finale” Avengers movie in May of 2019 that will be the end of the first three MCU phases and the beginning of whatever comes next. So, in that sense, Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 (or whatever it’s called) will either be the season premiere of Phase Four or the epilogue of Phase 3.

 

Quote

If Spider-Man: Homecoming passes $292 million, it’ll top Man of Steel ($291m in 2013) as the biggest domestic grosser for a straight reboot, although a $309m total would put it over the top in terms of inflation. And if it passes the $757m worldwide gross of The Amazing Spider-Man, it’ll be the biggest global grosser for a straight reboot. And no, I’m not counting Deadpool as a reboot. Both Deadpool and X-Men Origins: Wolverine star Ryan Reynolds as the title character. If Casino Royale had starred Pierce Brosnan, that wouldn’t have been a reboot either.

 

 

Quote

As I said before, that Patty Jenkins’ Wonder Woman overperformed in North America did not put additional pressure on Jon Watt’s Spider-Man: Homecoming. Nor, for that matter, did the inclusion of Iron Man and Spidey’s existence in the MCU create an expectation that the film would flirt with Sam Raimi-level numbers. If we’re strictly treating Spider-Man 3.0 as an MCU movie, then we should note that it has already out-grossed every MCU movie that isn’t an Avengers team-up (yes, I’m counting Civil War), Iron Man 3 or a Guardians of the Galaxy movie.

 

So yeah, in terms of unadjusted domestic grosses, it has out-grossed the first two Captain America movies, the first two Thor films, Doctor Strange, Ant-Man and The Incredible Hulk. And if it can leg it to $318 million (possible but not probable), it’ll pass the first two Iron Man movies as well. But that’s an if/when question. So yeah, I would argue that Spider-Man: Homecoming is doing quite well when considered a stand-alone MCU movie that isn’t an event team-up or even a mythology episode (think The Winter Soldier). Spidey is still swinging relatively high.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/07/27/box-office-spider-man-homecoming-tops-the-amazing-spider-man/#26e09e3d6f85

 

This is from last week. I'd argue that Mendelson is wrong about not being likely that Homecoming will fly past $318m. That's happening. How further can it goes is a different story. 

[ZattMurdock]

9 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Batman's solo films has been way more spaced out than Spider-Man's films plus Batman is coming off the acclaimed TDK Trilogy which two of those films did $400M+ while Spider-Man came off TASM 2 which did $200M. I think the appetite for another solo Batman film is bigger than the appetite was for another solo Spider-Man film. But yes let's not overestimate this film nor be disappointed if it only grosses $300M domestic and $800M worldwide. Like the Raimi films will be the peak of Spider-Man in North America chances are Batman will never again reach the heights of TDK and TDKR in North America. And there's nothing wrong with that. 

 

As far as Homecoming it is hyperbole to call its run outstanding or amazing but I do think people are underplaying how well its recovered after that 62% weekend drop which a number of people were claiming it meant Homecoming would not reach $300M domestic. A 2.7x multiplier for a film that has very well known characters is very good indeed. 

 

 

It's going for a 2.8-2.9 multiplier domestically in my opinion. $117m to a $327m-$339m total. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

6 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

Nothing wrong with solid, ok, decent, and good.

[Sony is quite happy with the results, I am sure]

 

Yeah it's not like those words are describing the actual quality of the film. Wouldn't be surprised if Sony takes the wrong lessons from this success though. I'm still skeptical about how well their non-MCU Spider-Man films will do.

[Cochofles]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah it's not like those words are describing the actual quality of the film. Wouldn't be surprised if Sony takes the wrong lessons from this success though. I'm still skeptical about how well their non-MCU Spider-Man films will do.

I will always give them the benefit of the doubt. Who knows...we might get a great Venom or Silver Sable/Black Cat film after all (SS/BC is Sony, right?)

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Just now, Cochofles said:

I will always give them the benefit of the doubt. Who knows...we might get a great Venom or Silver Sable/Black Cat film after all (SS/BC is Sony, right?)

Yep all Sony. Good attitude to have at least with the Venom movie they've gathered a good team to make a good film. 

 

Avi Arad will finally get his Venom film lol. 

[ZattMurdock]

8 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

Exactly.

Nobody has said that the film flopped or that it's doing badly.

It's when totally inappropriate terms are bandied about ["astonishing run" "incredible legs" "insane word of mouth"] that people remind iJack that the overall trajectory of the film's box office does not show signs of anything that could be considered astonishing, incredible, or insane.

Nothing wrong with solid, ok, decent, and good.

[Sony is quite happy with the results, I am sure]

 

I find that sort of hillarious. Let's say that Homecoming makes to $865m WW, with $327m dom being from dom being from its domestic run. Is that a solid, ok, decent and good run or a great, amazing run for a reboot? Having in mind that this is a reboot after 3 poorly received films. Let's settle this... I summon the gods: @Rth Homecoming, @EmpireCity, if Homecoming manages to get a 2.8x multiplier domestically ($117m - $327m) and after Japan and China, its worldwide numbers go above $860m, is that a good, solid, ok, decent run or an amazing, great run?  

[ZattMurdock]

Another question that you haven't answered, @Cochofles

 

If WW managed a 2.8-2.9 multiplier out of its $104m opening weekend number, do you really think that would be just "decent"? Especially after crossing $300m? Yes, $400m is insane, but I fail to understand how a film that gets the kind of critical acclaim that both WW and SM:H have AND gets a strong multiplier that makes it go above $300m easily would be seen as just decent. It just doesn't make sense to me. 

Edited August 3, 2017 by iJackSparrow

[ZattMurdock]

Just so you people understand my parameters: if SM:H had a 2.5-2.6 multiplier   I'd call that run ok, decent and good. It's making 2.8-2.9 and poised to go above Vol. 2 as the biggest sh film ww with $860+. I just can't see something like that as just "decent".

Edited August 3, 2017 by iJackSparrow

[UrosepsisFace]

SM:H did better than "good", "adequate", "nice". However it wasn't "legendary", "astonishing", or "uncanny". Obviously, it falls in the range of "very good", "great", and "amazing".  

[UrosepsisFace]

Btw, WOM is something made up by the users here to explain a good multiplier without actually realizing other factors that are involved. Sure, good WOM can help a movie's run, but many other factors are also involved. Both Spider-Man and Wonder Woman could have achieved insane word of mouth, but the multiplier will be drastically different because even if both movies had fanboys ranting and raving about it, eventually, that great WOM will hit a limit and that's due to all kinds of other stuff. For instance, my buddy told everybody at work to watch SM:H because it was the best of an already very good series. Some of my coworkers, even though they adored the first two Spider-Man movies, and even though they believed this new one could be better...they didn't want to watch it because it was like the 6th film...I told them Wonder Woman was meh and I slept through it, but even though they don't watch Super-Hero movies, they still wanted to go because it was the first Wonder Woman movie. Yeah, anecdotal evidence, but you don't need the wildest imagination to believe such conversations happened across America.