TwoMisfits Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: That would be WAY too high and it'd be way too close to what GotG did on its fifth weekend, and that being $30m ahead of that film. Somewhere between $7m-$8m is where I see it right now. I'd wait on what's too high vs what's about right until we see theater drops. Spidey was pretty much in single screen at all theaters last weekend, so if he doesn't drop theaters, he probably holds pretty equivalent seat possibilities for the weekend. And it's not like a Spidey audience-stealing movie is opening this weekend - I don't see horror (Dark Tower) or bleak (Detroit) being competitors for Spidey fans...instead, I think WW falling out of more theaters helps Spidey, by causing him to be the only super in town...Baby Driver falling out of many more theaters (if my locals are anything to go by) also helps, b/c it takes away a male-focused "fun" option...there aren't many of those in the sea of male-audience directed movies... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 2 hours ago, That Floating Guy said: Of course they're not obligated to see it. That doesn't mean I can't have a problem with them just blindly following what other people think instead of using their own brain to determine whether they wanna see it or not. Again, it's different if you were on the fence before or had little interest before, but that's besides the point, Their own brain as mostly influenced by marketing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) It's the fence sitters that RT pushes over the edge one way or the other...and it's the inability to quantify those fence sitters that makes this a big issue (are they 10% of the audience, are they 40%, are they 70%...does the type of movie change the number...does the premier vs sequel change it...does a bad previous sequel change this fence sitter makeup...etc, etc, etc) I mean, how many of us are like "okay, that's a wait for Netflix or cheap theater movie" vs "I have to see this right now" when we see reviews of films, especially "premier" concept films we wanted to see from trailers? I know I do it all the time...b/c I have Netflix, Amazon, cheap DVD/Blu Ray packs, and a discount theater at my disposal...and I'm usually buying between 2-6 tickets, so I weigh my time vs my interest (especially for the 6 ticket buys)...and especially for sequels and remakes, b/c I personally hate "been there, done that" feelings for my money... Edited August 2, 2017 by TwoMisfits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I'd wait on what's too high vs what's about right until we see theater drops. Spidey was pretty much in single screen at all theaters last weekend, so if he doesn't drop theaters, he probably holds pretty equivalent seat possibilities for the weekend. And it's not like a Spidey audience-stealing movie is opening this weekend - I don't see horror (Dark Tower) or bleak (Detroit) being competitors for Spidey fans...instead, I think WW falling out of more theaters helps Spidey, by causing him to be the only super in town...Baby Driver falling out of many more theaters (if my locals are anything to go by) also helps, b/c it takes away a male-focused "fun" option...there aren't many of those in the sea of male-audience directed movies... Homecoming had 3625 theaters this weekend and made 13.2m, while SS had 3582 and made $12.2m, GotG had 3462 and made $17.06m. One thing to notice, GotG did that on its memorial weekend on its fourth weekend. So it was arguably inflated, while SM:H did what it did naturally. SS had 3292 theaters at its fifth weekend and made $9.89m, but that was its memorial weekend, while GotG had 3221 theaters and it did $9.9m. I think Homecoming will have a theater count slightly bigger than both films and go for something like $7m-$8.5m, with the latter being a high end that I don't really believe in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Just now, grey ghost said: Dear lord, a movie being frontloaded doesn't prove anything objective about which actor was better or which movie is better. Nowhere in my comments was I discussing quality but box-office. So it would be best to reread what I said and take a Chill Pill. It being so front-loaded, in fact, speaks to how the GA didn't react so red-hot to Homecoming as the glowing reviews and hyperbole fan reactions (some on this very forum) said they would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said: Nowhere in my comments was I discussing quality but box-office. So it would be best to reread what I said and take a Chill Pill. It being so front-loaded, in fact, speaks to how the GA didn't react so red-hot to Homecoming as the glowing reviews and hyperbole fan reactions (some on this very forum) said they would. Or they did, but bought tickets OW, when the movie beat tracking by $17M...when you have great WOM for a week+ prior to opening, who knows when the GA drops in... I mean, I fully expect GA to drop in to Star 8's OW... Edited August 2, 2017 by TwoMisfits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 I just love how Spider-Man: Homecoming keeps going week after week with great legs and some weirdo that used to keep tabs on me on Twitter goes in a vendetta against the film just because I'm excited for its box office run and loved the film. It's kinda hillarious to watch. I remember when the same dude had a very different standard with Man of Steel out of all reboots, but I digress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) Just now, TwoMisfits said: Or they did, but bought tickets OW, when the movie beat tracking by $17M...when you have great WOM for a week+ prior to opening, who knows when the GA drops in... I mean, I fully expect GA to drop in to Star 8's OW... "Great WOM for a week+ prior to opening?" You literally have no idea how WOM works based on that remark. You're getting WOM confused with reviews. By that logic, War for the Apes had great WOM too. Moving on... Edited August 3, 2017 by filmnerdjamie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 16 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said: "Great WOM for a week+ prior to opening?" You literally have no idea how WOM works based on that remark. You're getting WOM confused with reviews. By that logic, War for the Apes had great WOM too. Moving on... Sure...critics and early non-critic screeners spread WOM on the web as much as anyone nowadays (they don't just post RT reviews - they put hypes on Twitter and blogs everywhere)...then add in Thursday night viewers and by Sat/Sun, you could have a huge WOM push you never had before... Everything nowadays is "instant" - you don't need to wait for newspapers to read reviews...or in-person visits or answered telephone calls to speak to friends...hit your Instagram in theater, post your review to Twitter, and you've spread WOM like wildfire in minutes... Understanding the speed is understanding the market... Edited August 3, 2017 by TwoMisfits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, iJackSparrow said: That would be WAY too high and it'd be way too close to what GotG did on its fifth weekend, and that being $30m ahead of that film. Somewhere between $7m-$8m is where I see it right now. I gave Homecoming a 35%+ drop after a 40% drop in it's fourth weekend. Guardians Vol. 1 made $17M+ it's fifth weekend - Labor Day - and just under $23M over the four day holiday weekend. I assume you meant Guardians Vol. 2, no? Edited August 3, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I hoping Dunkirk gets a good hold this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastSon Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Anyone into posting Bill Shatner gifs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 3, 2017 Author Share Posted August 3, 2017 5 hours ago, iJackSparrow said: I just love how Spider-Man: Homecoming keeps going week after week with great legs and some weirdo that used to keep tabs on me on Twitter goes in a vendetta against the film just because I'm excited for its box office run and loved the film. It's kinda hillarious to watch. I remember when the same dude had a very different standard with Man of Steel out of all reboots, but I digress. WTF are you talking about? -62% -50% -40% Those aren't great legs. Like the movie all you want Jack, but don't make up stories about the legs. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 2 hours ago, iJackSparrow said: Homecoming had 3625 theaters this weekend and made 13.2m, while SS had 3582 and made $12.2m, GotG had 3462 and made $17.06m. One thing to notice, GotG did that on its memorial weekend on its fourth weekend. So it was arguably inflated, while SM:H did what it did naturally. SS had 3292 theaters at its fifth weekend and made $9.89m, but that was its memorial weekend, while GotG had 3221 theaters and it did $9.9m. I think Homecoming will have a theater count slightly bigger than both films and go for something like $7m-$8.5m, with the latter being a high end that I don't really believe in. GotG made $17m in it's 5th w/e dropping less than 1%. It's next 2 w/e were $10m and $8m. Where from you are getting $9.9m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 4 hours ago, John Marston said: 900m not guaranteed. Looking more like 850m 900M is out of reach I think, or else my club is f@ck. ...SMH under SM3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 3, 2017 Author Share Posted August 3, 2017 3 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said: GotG made $17m in it's 5th w/e dropping less than 1%. It's next 2 w/e were $10m and $8m. Where from you are getting $9.9m? He means part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: WTF are you talking about? -62% -50% -40% Those aren't great legs. Like the movie all you want Jack, but don't make up stories about the legs. You said that Homecoming would not make to $300m. Then you said it'd make 2.6x, that would get to $304m. Then you said 2.7x, that would make to $315m. It's also going to fly past all these predictions. You have a problem that I don't, Baumer. When you don't like a film, you underestimate its box office run. That's not the first time. When I talk about legs, especially in July, I don't talk about just weekends, I talk about weekdays too. Like me, @TwoMisfits and a few others predicted, Homecoming would stabilize after Dunkirk. It did, and it's showing on its legs. A film with bad legs or bad WOM don't start with $117m and flies past $320m+, with OS numbers that might lead to become the highest grossing film of the year other than BatB. You know that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 3, 2017 Author Share Posted August 3, 2017 3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said: You said that Homecoming would not make to $300m. Then you said it'd make 2.6x, that would get to $304m. Then you said 2.7x, that would make to $315m. It's also going to fly past all these predictions. You have a problem that I don't, Baumer. When you don't like a film, you underestimate its box office run. That's not the first time. When I talk about legs, especially in July, I don't talk about just weekends, I talk about weekdays too. Like me, @TwoMisfits and a few others predicted, Homecoming would stabilize after Dunkirk. It did, and it's showing on its legs. A film with bad legs or bad WOM don't start with $117m and flies past $320m+, with OS numbers that might lead to become the highest grossing film of the year other than BatB. You know that. Again...wtf are you talking about? It has no shot at beating DM3 world wide. I said it probably wouldn't get past 2.6X. I never said it absolutely wouldn't hit 300. Stop being such a fan boy. Like I said, enjoy the film, glad you did. But it's not a WOM monster. It fell big time in the first two weekends. The first good hold it had was the third. And I do not under estimate films based on whether or not I like it. I try to be objective. You're incredibly and annoyingly hypocritical when it comes to calling out on not being objective. You're the worst here for that and everyone knows it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Subzero said: 900M is out of reach I think, or else my club is f@ck. ...SMH under SM3 lol Not out of reach, but it's a long shot. If Homecoming gets to let's say $330m dom, $400m os minus China and Japan, if Japan does like $50m and China does $120m, it'd get to $900m. @Rth Homecoming is out of your club, and I do think that he has a shot of hein right about that. If anything, I definitely think Homecoming will end up grossing more tha Vol. 2 ww. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzero Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: Not out of reach, but it's a long shot. If Homecoming gets to let's say $330m dom, $400m os minus China and Japan, if Japan does like $50m and China does $120m, it'd get to $900m. @Rth Homecoming is out of your club, and I do think that he has a shot of hein right about that. If anything, I definitely think Homecoming will end up grossing more tha Vol. 2 ww. 2 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: Not out of reach, but it's a long shot. If Homecoming gets to let's say $330m dom, $400m os minus China and Japan, if Japan does like $50m and China does $120m, it'd get to $900m. @Rth Homecoming is out of your club, and I do think that he has a shot of hein right about that. If anything, I definitely think Homecoming will end up grossing more tha Vol. 2 ww. At this point I don't see DOM hitting 330M, I see it hitting IM1 number or possible $320M. But yes OS is still the question, depending on China ? Japan I would say about $30-50M they love him over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
