filmnerdjamie Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) Just now, LonePirate said: Speaking of SW, what's the O/U for the number of days TLJ needs to pass BatB? 11 days? That would be Christmas Day. If TFA can rocket past $500M in 10 days, surely TLJ can clear that hurdle on the big holiday. Or will it need another day or two? Or will the unthinkable happen and it jumps past $503M+ on day 9 or earlier? If any film this year was gonna best The Last Jedi, it was always going to be Beauty & the Beast. And... honestly... I think it will be closer than we all think. You hit the heights of The Force Awakens... there's going to be a drop regardless of quality (not unlike what happened to The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones following Star Wars and The Phantom Menace collectively). Same as happened to Spider-Man 2, Shrek the Third, Pirates 3,The Dark Knight Rises, Age of Ultron, what we just saw with Fate of the Furious and Despicable Me 3, etc. Edited August 2, 2017 by filmnerdjamie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, That Floating Guy said: I'm not talking about those kind of people that see very few movies a year and are selective about what they see (the ones that will see like 3 or 4 movies and have them be Wonder Woman, Star Wars, GOTG 2, and Beauty and the Beast or something like that). I'm talking about people who see a decent amount of movies per year (10-20, give or take a few), and then decide to not see a certain movie they were already excited for because of a number. They're not obligated to see it. If RT dissuades them, that's their business. Seems dumb to say that you have "no respect" for them just because of that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) Wolf Warriors 2 may do +700m in China? Highest grossing film in a single territory for 2017 not safe bet??? Edited August 2, 2017 by FantasticBeasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said: If any film this year was gonna best The Last Jedi, it was always going to be Beauty & the Beast. And... honestly... I think it will be closer than we all think. You hit the heights of The Force Awakens... there's going to be a drop regardless of quality (not unlike what happened to The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones following Star Wars and The Phantom Menace collectively). Same as happened to Spider-Man 2, Pirates 3,The Dark Knight Rises, Age of Ultron, what we just saw with Fate of the Furious and Despicable Me 3, etc. I'd be willing to say with absolute confidence that TLJ is not going to fall under 600 million. Spider-man 2 and TDKR only fell minimally from the previous film. Even if TLJ drops 30% from TFA, you still have about 670 million. I think it stays over 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 minute ago, aabattery said: They're not obligated to see it. If RT dissuades them, that's their business. Seems dumb to say that you have "no respect" for them just because of that. Of course they're not obligated to see it. That doesn't mean I can't have a problem with them just blindly following what other people think instead of using their own brain to determine whether they wanna see it or not. Again, it's different if you were on the fence before or had little interest before, but that's besides the point, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: I'd be willing to say with absolute confidence that TLJ is not going to fall under 600 million. Spider-man 2 and TDKR only fell minimally from the previous film. Even if TLJ drops 30% from TFA, you still have about 670 million. I think it stays over 700. I agree. WW though I think it will be lower. I am expecting 700-750m DOM and $650m OS right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Just now, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: I'd be willing to say with absolute confidence that TLJ is not going to fall under 600 million. Spider-man 2 and TDKR only fell minimally from the previous film. Even if TLJ drops 30% from TFA, you still have about 670 million. I think it stays over 700. Fair enough. But just remember, good Sir,... many thought it was "laughable" for Age of Ultron to do sub-$500M. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said: Fair enough. But just remember, good Sir,... many thought it was "laughable" for Age of Ultron to do sub-$500M. IMHO, Ultron sucked. That's why it dropped so much. TLJ has a lot going for it. Leia's swan song...Luke being Luke are the two main ones. I agree that it could drop lower than 600 but I think the film would have to kind of suck for it to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: I'd be willing to say with absolute confidence that TLJ is not going to fall under 600 million. Spider-man 2 and TDKR only fell minimally from the previous film. Even if TLJ drops 30% from TFA, you still have about 670 million. I think it stays over 700. Yeah. Won't be close either, unless $200M+ DOM difference is considered close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 I personally think that doing a SW film a year was not the best decision. You need to build as much hype possible. People that are not huge SW fans will get tired. Han Solo will drop big IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 I feel like RT definitely punishes movies with 'mixed reviews'. Mixed reviews are the bulk of the serving. However I guess 'mixed reviews' can be propelled with great WOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: IMHO, Ultron sucked. That's why it dropped so much. TLJ has a lot going for it. Leia's swan song...Luke being Luke are the two main ones. I agree that it could drop lower than 600 but I think the film would have to kind of suck for it to do so. Definitely has a much better hook going in than Ultron did. Hell, easily can be argued now that the rest of new Avengers are joining - namely the Guardians - and Thanos is finally appearing that Avengers 3 has a much, much, much better hook than Ultron too and would've served much better as a true sequel than Ultron did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: I personally think that doing a SW film a year was not the best decision. You need to build as much hype possible. People that are not huge SW fans will get tired. Han Solo will drop big IMO. Even if Solo solo drops big, what the heck does it matter? Force Awakens $925M+ DOM Rogue One $530M+ DOM Last Jedi ??? $725M+ DOM ??? Solo solo ??? $350M+ DOM ??? Episode IV ??? $800M+ DOM ??? I mean, I don't know? The real hype flicks are Episodes 7 through 9. The spin offs are gravy. And, damn, Rogue One was a frigging gravy train with $1B+ WW and $500M+ DOM. That's like saying the entire Fantastic Beasts spinoff from Potter is mistake. None of them will gross as much any Star Wars spinoff let alone the cannon stuff. But, hey, I'm not saying that. Because they're not a mistake. Edited August 2, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 People still acting like SMH is some kind of sleeper hit? It's a good performer but nothing out of this world, especially with the advantages it had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Even if Solo solo drops big, what the heck does it matter? Force Awakens $925M+ DOM Rogue One $530M+ DOM Last Jedi ??? $725M+ DOM ??? Solo solo ??? $350M+ DOM ??? Episode IV ??? $800M+ DOM ??? I mean, I don't know? The real hype flicks are Episodes 7 through 9. The spin offs are gravy. And, damn, Rogue One was a frigging gravy train with $1B+ WW and $500M+ DOM. It obviously doesn't "matter". I just feel that there should be at least 2 year gaps in between franchise entries. Those films will certainly be monstrous but they may have had even more potential ( The spin offs especially) had there been time to build more hype. Rogue One falling 50% from TFA is actually slightly harsh for a spin off. Edited August 2, 2017 by FantasticBeasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Just now, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: IMHO, Ultron sucked. That's why it dropped so much. TLJ has a lot going for it. Leia's swan song...Luke being Luke are the two main ones. I agree that it could drop lower than 600 but I think the film would have to kind of suck for it to do so. Also Rogue One being the "follow-up" to Force Awakens might deflate numbers to a degree, not unlike how Minions succeeded thanks to following Despicable Me 2., even though it also wasn't a sequel but a prequel/spin-off. Just some food for thought. Luke Skywalker was my onscreen hero growing up (next to Indiana Jones). Can not tell how much my heart was pumping to see him return in those closing minutes of The Force Awakens, not to mention Hamill getting his due just being such a fucking good human being. Folks don't realize he's been sitting fat and happy for decades living off Star Wars points and, of all things, Wing Commander profits plus his countless voice-over gigs. He goes to all this conventions because he genuinely cares and appreciates his fans. All due respect... the same can not be said for one Mr. Ford. I say all this. Just... not sure Luke's return is so much of a hook for the GA. The Last Jedi lacks its "Chewie... we're home!" And an actor's passing rarely bumps the BO #s, save for The Dark Knight and Furious 7 - both of which were always going to be monster hits... but those tragedies pushed them to "MUST-SEE!" levels for people like your grandma. A beloved figure like Robin Williams and his passing didn't help Night at the Museum 3, for example. Again... just some friendly food for thought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, John Marston said: People still acting like SMH is some kind of sleeper hit? It's a good performer but nothing out of this world, especially with the advantages it had Sleeper hit would be a silly comment. But, it's headed to least $320M+ DOM and at least $900M+ WW. That's really, really awesome rebound from where the franchise was headed with TASM and TASM2 DOM and OS, especially DOM. It's going to increase 60%+ DOM from the last one. So, yeah, this incredible run stuff is silly. It won't have a 3+ multiplier. But, no way say it isn't a very, very big success for Sony and Marvel Studios here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said: Also Rogue One being the "follow-up" to Force Awakens might deflate numbers to a degree, not unlike how Minions succeeded thanks to following Despicable Me 2., even though it also wasn't a sequel but a prequel/spin-off. Just some food for thought. Luke Skywalker was my onscreen hero growing up (next to Indiana Jones). Can not tell how much my heart was pumping to see him return in those closing minutes of The Force Awakens, not to mention Hamill getting his due just being such a fucking good human being. Folks don't realize he's been sitting fat and happy for decades living off Star Wars points and, of all things, Wing Commander profits plus his countless voice-over gigs. He goes to all this conventions because he genuinely cares and appreciates his fans. All due respect... the same can not be said for one Mr. Ford. I say all this. Just... not sure Luke's return is so much of a hook for the GA. The Last Jedi lacks its "Chewie... we're home!" And an actor's passing rarely bumps the BO #s, save for The Dark Knight and Furious 7 - both of which were always going to be monster hits... but those tragedies pushed them to "MUST-SEE!" levels for people like your grandma. A beloved figure like Robin Williams and his passing didn't help Night at the Museum 3, for example. Again... just some friendly food for thought. Great post. I agree with almost everything you said here. I just think that the film will open strong enough and benefit from the Christmas 2 week period in order for it to get past 700. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Sleeper hit would be a silly comment. But, it's headed to least $320M+ DOM and at least $900M+ WW. That's really, really awesome rebound from where the franchise was headed with TASM and TASM2 DOM and OS, especially DOM. It's going to increase 60%+ DOM from the last one. So, yeah, this incredible run stuff is silly. It won't have a 3+ multiplier. But, no way say it isn't a very, very big success for Sony and Marvel Studios here. 900 is a monster gross, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Sorry, but I just can't see a possible scenario where TLJ makes less than BatB domestically. I just don't see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
