JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 minute ago, miketheavenger said: Sorry, but I just can't see a possible scenario where TLJ makes less than BatB domestically. I just don't see it. No doubt. No way in hell it makes less than Rogue One which made more than Beauty. Everything saw what Force Awakens did. It has zero legit holiday season competition. It will gross obscene dailies over the Christmas and New Year's holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Homecoming showed exactly what the MCU branding can do for the Spider-Man IP. Which is rock solid... but one look at the subsequent weekend drops/WOM also cemented it can't reach the levels of the Raimi/Maguire films in the zeitgeist - regardless of the nerdgasms of how Holland "is the best Spider-Man of all-time" and how Homecoming is "the Spider-Man movie we have been dreaming of" fanboy hyperbole bullshit. Like all franchises, they peak and the best you can do is hold on as much as possible afterwards. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Just now, filmnerdjamie said: Homecoming showed exactly what the MCU branding can do for the Spider-Man IP. Which is rock solid... but one look at the subsequent weekend drops/WOM also cemented it can't reach the levels of the Raimi/Maguire films in the zeitgeist - regardless of the nerdgasms of how Holland "is the best Spider-Man of all-time" and how Homecoming is "the Spider-Man movie we have been dreaming of" fanboy hyperbole bullshit. Like all franchises, they peak and the best you can do is hold on as much as possible afterwards. Yup. I still think if it was the first Spidey flick since '07, as in TASM movies didn't exist, it would've made $400M+ DOM for sure. But, yeah, no way in hell it ever had a real shot at coming remotely close to the admissions of Spider-man or Spider-man 2. Those are two of the most watched movies in theaters DOM in the 21st Century. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XO21 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 The first two Spidey movies had something unique that won't be repeated..like TDK, Avengers, the original star wars and many more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 (edited) .... Edited August 2, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 hours ago, a2knet said: DCEU, MCU, SW, AVATAR...all have to make way for the Bumblebee spinoff. You know it. It's gonna be yuge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said: Still at 50 reviews. The other critics don't want to torture themselves by seeing it. Those critics are smart. 3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said: You're doubting Cameron's ability to connect with general audiences after Titanic and Avatar? I would think by this point he has earned the benefit of the doubt more than any director outside of maybe Spielberg. Not to mention we know very little what the sequels actually gonna be like. For all we know, Cameron could surprise us all, very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Sleeper hit would be a silly comment. But, it's headed to least $320M+ DOM and at least $900M+ WW. That's really, really awesome rebound from where the franchise was headed with TASM and TASM2 DOM and OS, especially DOM. It's going to increase 60%+ DOM from the last one. So, yeah, this incredible run stuff is silly. It won't have a 3+ multiplier. But, no way say it isn't a very, very big success for Sony and Marvel Studios here. 900m not guaranteed. Looking more like 850m 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goffe Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 4 hours ago, grim22 said: @CJohn Why is THR's comments section always so much more toxic than the average comments section? It's waaay worse than places like Youtube, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LonePirate Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Let's see. The two biggest hits of the year are led by strong female characters. This past winter featured a huge breakout hit led by three women. The year's biggest comedy is shaping up to be one led by four women. Now we have the biggest film franchise of them all led by a strong female character and featuring the final film role of the actress revered by many women (and men) for portraying the greatest cinematic female hero ever and people think the film will underperform its record breaking predecessor by 40-50% or more? Unadjusted Avatar is the minimum for this film. Strong reviews and WOM along with good weather put $850M+ in sight. Heck, I'd say there is a 30% chance it passes TFA if everything goes its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Sleeper hit would be a silly comment. But, it's headed to least $320M+ DOM and at least $900M+ WW. That's really, really awesome rebound from where the franchise was headed with TASM and TASM2 DOM and OS, especially DOM. It's going to increase 60%+ DOM from the last one. So, yeah, this incredible run stuff is silly. It won't have a 3+ multiplier. But, no way say it isn't a very, very big success for Sony and Marvel Studios here. I don't see it going for at least $900m WW, it'll be a struggle to pass GotG Vol. 2 $860m+, and it has an outside chance of going over $890m WW, becoming Spider-Man's highest grossing film unadjusted. With that said, I'd like to point out some few things: Yes, GotG's run was legendary, and while Homecoming's fourth weekend was $13.259m, GotG was $17.2m. So how Homecoming is managing to keep ahead of Vol. 1 by almost $30m at same period of time, do you ask. Simple, Homecoming has way better weekdays. GotG's fourth Tuesday was 1.3m, while Homecoming's fourth Tuesday is $2.4m. GotG's fourth Wed/Thur are $974k and $841k. I think there's very little doubt that Homecoming will manage to be way above that this Wed and Thur. Now, GotG's fifth weekend was $9.8m. I doubt that Homecoming can top that this weekend. But if it manages something around $7m-$8m this weekend, meaning between -47% / -40% drop, it will keep going well over GotG's weekdays numbers at same period of time. What I mean is that if Homecoming keeps the +-$30m gap between its gross and GotG's, in the rest of August alone it will make around $30m-$35m, which would put very close to $320m. With little competition, I expect Homecoming to gross at least more $10m from September, placing it around $325m-$330m dom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Spiderman peaked with SM1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: No doubt. No way in hell it makes less than Rogue One which made more than Beauty. Everything saw what Force Awakens did. It has zero legit holiday season competition. It will gross obscene dailies over the Christmas and New Year's holiday season. IMO Rogue One > TFA and I just don't see Luke Skywalker as much of a pull, certainly nowehere near Han Solo which is why people wanted to see TFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said: I agree. WW though I think it will be lower. I am expecting 700-750m DOM and $650m OS right now. Only $650M OS? Yeah, no way. Perhaps it won't do $1B+ OS like THE FORCE AWAKENS but I would think $800M at the bare minimum. ROGUE ONE's OS gross is a different story. It's not going to grab the international audience's attention like the main saga films with the classic characters will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, a2knet said: Spiderman peaked with SM1. It peaked again with Spider-Man 3. It might peak again with Homecoming, if breaks out in Japan/China and it manages to go above Spider-Man 3's box office worldwide. It will peak again with Spider-Man's sequel if Avengers: Infinity War and 4 break out - and it seems they will - since Spider-Man is getting poised to become a central part of the MCU. The brilliance of casting this young is that the MCU now has a Harry Potter in the shape of Peter Parker. We'll see this kid grow up in the role of Spidey just like we saw with Daniel Radcliff. If that was Sony, I'd totally concede to you. But Marvel Studios obviously has big plans for the character, and if they manage to keep the growth of the franchise from here forward, the sky is the limit. What Marvel Studios did with Homecoming / Civil War regarding Spidey is a by the books perfect formula to reboot a character after two to three poorly received films, like Nolan did with Batman last decade. The difference is, unlike Bale, Holland can literally keep playing the character in several films for the next ten to fifteen years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Now that ive finally watched Apes, its poor performance is even sadder for me . Its an abolute masterpiece. Spoiler WHY THE FUCK ARE PEOPLE NOT SUPPORTING IT MORE??? THEY GO TO SHIT LIKE MINIONS 78 BUT TRUE WORKS OF ART ARE IGNORED Spoiler AAAAAAAAAHHHHHH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 58 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: I don't see it going for at least $900m WW, it'll be a struggle to pass GotG Vol. 2 $860m+, and it has an outside chance of going over $890m WW, becoming Spider-Man's highest grossing film unadjusted. With that said, I'd like to point out some few things: Yes, GotG's run was legendary, and while Homecoming's fourth weekend was $13.259m, GotG was $17.2m. So how Homecoming is managing to keep ahead of Vol. 1 by almost $30m at same period of time, do you ask. Simple, Homecoming has way better weekdays. GotG's fourth Tuesday was 1.3m, while Homecoming's fourth Tuesday is $2.4m. GotG's fourth Wed/Thur are $974k and $841k. I think there's very little doubt that Homecoming will manage to be way above that this Wed and Thur. Now, GotG's fifth weekend was $9.8m. I doubt that Homecoming can top that this weekend. But if it manages something around $7m-$8m this weekend, meaning between -47% / -40% drop, it will keep going well over GotG's weekdays numbers at same period of time. What I mean is that if Homecoming keeps the +-$30m gap between its gross and GotG's, in the rest of August alone it will make around $30m-$35m, which would put very close to $320m. With little competition, I expect Homecoming to gross at least more $10m from September, placing it around $325m-$330m dom. I expect something around $8.5M this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: I expect something around $8.5M this weekend. That would be WAY too high and it'd be way too close to what GotG did on its fifth weekend, and that being $30m ahead of that film. Somewhere between $7m-$8m is where I see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Goffe said: Why is THR's comments section always so much more toxic than the average comments section? It's waaay worse than places like Youtube, for example. Breitbart links to them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said: Homecoming showed exactly what the MCU branding can do for the Spider-Man IP. Which is rock solid... but one look at the subsequent weekend drops/WOM also cemented it can't reach the levels of the Raimi/Maguire films in the zeitgeist - regardless of the nerdgasms of how Holland "is the best Spider-Man of all-time" and how Homecoming is "the Spider-Man movie we have been dreaming of" fanboy hyperbole bullshit. Like all franchises, they peak and the best you can do is hold on as much as possible afterwards. Dear lord, a movie being frontloaded doesn't prove anything objective about which actor was better or which movie is better. The begining of a successful franchise is always more backloaded than the 5th and 6th movie. You guys expect the 2nd reboot in 5 years to be backloaded? Why would it be? Even the 1st reboot is a hard sell. And it's a miracle any franchise film made 50% over the last movie in the series. How many franchise films accomplished anything close to that this summer? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
