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What will be the highest grossing film of 2018? (Dom)

What will be the highest grossing film of 2018?  

78 members have voted

  1. 1. Which one will it be?

    • Avengers: Infinity War
      35
    • Han Solo
      4
    • The Incredibles 2
      5
    • Deadpool 2
      2
    • Mary Poppins Returns
      1
    • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
      28
    • Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
      0
    • Black Panther
      2
    • Aquaman
      0
    • Other
      1


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Well It's already September and how the year as flown, which means before you know it, it will be 2018.

 

And unlike 2017 where the #1 film is obvious. 2018 is a little more murky (not for me, I am very confident in the film I think will be #1, but not everyone agrees with me)

 

Like the past three years, Disney is going to have a strong presence, but due to some rather extreme production drama on the Han Solo movie, the film is in a sticky situation right now, I hope it was just a hiccup and everything turns out great, but firing a film's directors a few weeks before shooting ends is never a good thing, maybe it can Rogue One it, and still turn out a highly entertaining film that movie goers enjoy. but even if it is well received, it will be the 4th Star Wars in 4 years and the one people were asking for least, in a much more competitive season, I don't think anyone is expecting TFA numbers for it. but can it reach Rogue one's $500m+ or even $400m? time will tell. I certainly don't see it hitting $500m. 

 

Another Major film releasing in June is the sequel to a film that any other year would have easily been number #1 Jurassic World: The Fallen Kingdom. Jurassic World was a worldwide phenomena that grossed over $650m dollars domestically and over $1.6b worldwide. it also received generally positive reviews from critics and audiences seemed to dig it dispite what some people around here might say, granted it was a reboot of sorts to one of the most beloved and highest grossing film franchises of all time (possibly only star wars beats it in terms of popularity). and while people generally liked it, many didn't love it, being only 3 years from the last film the rush factor may not be as strong, still there is no episodic Star Wars releasing this year and it may not even have to reach JW gross to be 1# (maybe not even $500m), and with a new more critically proven director, and the return of orignal cast member and fan favorite Jeff Goldblum could help close the gap in it's box office decline. t's not my choice for #1 but I wouldn't be shocked if that's how it ended up. 

 

2018 also see the long awaited and much asked for Sequel to one of the most beloved Pixar films of all time "The Incredibles 2" currently holding a 97% on rotten tomatoes, and with a 13 year gap between films means there is plenty of nostalgia factor, which did wonders with Beauty and the Beast earlier this year dispite many finding the remake a rather forgettable film. still adjusted for inflation incredibles only adds up to a little over $370m, add 3D and you got maybe $450m. can this sequel retain or even grow on it original audience? especially in an era where Superhero films are now a dime a dozen? (Finding Nemo adjust to $500m without adding 3D, Finding Dory could only muster $486m)

 

Mary Poppins Returns in 2018! 2018 will also see the Return of Mary Poppins, granted this time with Emily Blunt as the Ionic Nanny with an Umbrella. Mary Poppins is one of the most beloved Musicals of all time, and has managed to maintain its role in pop culture today, but sometimes long awaited sequels not always live up to expectations and is a 50 year old Icon still popular enough to make it's way to #1? probably not, but it should be a big hit for Disney nonetheless.

 

Now for Marvel's big boy card Avengers: Infinity War, the 3rd Avengers will will serve as a sequel to Avengers: Age of Ultron, as well as a sequel of sorts to just about every Marvel Studios film so far. it is set to be a culmination of sorts of all marvel properties so far.  and serves as part one of a (sort of grand finale to the series), it will be the first film to have the Guardians of the Galaxy meet the Avengers, and will see the return of major icons such as Captain America, Iron Man, Thor and Hulk ect.. with it's cast including almost every character in the MCU so far it is set to be the biggest marvel film so far and first film to see Thanos with a major role as the villain that has been hinted since 2012's Avengers. with a rumored budget ranging from $300-$500m. it is also expected to be the most expensive film ever made and most likely the largest in scale.

 

Now some would argue that Age of Ultron only made $459m. a $164m decrease from the first Avengers, however there are a couple factors with that, that I don't see with Infinity War, it wasn't as well received as the first avengers, and brought little new to the table marketing wise, and felt very much like a bridge film, heck in many ways Civil War felt more like a proper Avengers film then AoU. Also while the core Avengers films has decreased, almost every single solo marvel sequel has increased in Box Office from the original (with the exception of Iron Man 2, which still outgrossed the first WW). add the Guardians of the Galaxy to the mix and the sher build up of and this not having the "Middle feeling" film (while it is part of a 2 part series, it is said it is a singular film so it is not a Part I, Part II case in the same since is HP, Breaking Dawn, Mockingjay ect..). add all this together and I'd say it's at least enough for a significant increase from AoU. I personally believe it will easily be the highest grossing film of the year and probably the only film to cross $500m (the only other film I see having a chance at that is JW2) But what do you think?

 

There are a couple of wild cards this year, as Wonder Woman has shown catering to a specific demographic while still having universal appeal can work wonders, and Black Panther could be a massive breakout, if DC hits it's Stride with Aquaman like Wonder Woman, along with it's great December release date it could also be a massive break out. a Grinch animated remake releases in the holidays, the Jim Carey Grinch film was the highest grossing film of the year in 2000, dispite having a rather poor reception, imagine what a well received Grinch film could do? 

 

Cast your vote! 

 

 

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I went for JW, but I wouldn't be surprised if IW wins. There is a reasonable case to be made for Han Solo, but I would be surprised if it actually won. Anything outside of those 3 I would be shocked to see win.

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For fun, I added in some commentary and reasoning.

 

Infinity War: $500M

While it will be heavily frontloaded, I have faith in the film delivering the goods. It's pretty much the big finale for everything built up since 2012, so Marvel fans are there Day 1. The D23 footage reportedly is insane in terms of scope and scale, begging even casual fans to catch it on the big screen. Add in an Avengers/Guardians crossover and three weeks all to itself (No Mad Max/Pitch Perfect/Angry Birds to steal showtimes and screens), and it'll be the second-biggest MCU flick.

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: $450M

Legs for the first film were sexier than a Pratt-Dallas Howard-Goldblum threesome, showing audiences loved it, no matter what our dinosaur of an administrator would have you believe. It's hard to gauge much on this, as we don't have a plot summary available, but if it offers the same stuff audiences loved in the first Jurassic World, as well as up the stakes and potentially something fresh from the series, it'll be another humongous hit. And hey, maybe Goldblum will offer the magic touch he didn't give to Independence Day 2, and offer more #nostalgia. Although I think there will be a pretty big drop-off from World 1, as I don't see how Universal can replicate such a perfect storm.

 

Aquaman: $360M

With Han Solo still in the May slot, Aquaman is currently the big December tentpole, and this one seems like a clear winner, although obviously not as huge as Star Wars. From what little we've seen of his character in the Justice League promos, Momoa's take on the character looks like a real standout, where even if JL is not well-recieved, the character will still be a favorite for many audiences. Reportedly, the film's underwater setting is supposed to be gorgeous and something that needs to be seen on the big screen, so expect Wan and WB to get a lot of money, and legs sexier than a Momoa-Heard-DaFoe threesome.

 

Incredibles 2: $350M

A lot of people think this will blow up and go above $400M or even $450M, but I'm being slightly conservative. Finding Nemo was a cultural phenomenon, becoming the second-highest grossing film of 2003 and the highest-grossing animated film up to that point, with an adjusted gross crossing $500M, making it obvious why Finding Dory was such a huge success 13 years later. The Incredibles was another huge hit, but it wasn't anywhere near close to the cultural impact or cash cow Nemo was, adjusting to an amazing, but not bonkers $373M in today's tickets. But of course the film is still going to make oodles of cash. Nostalgia, superhero craze, a severe lack of family competition, likely fantastic reviews, etc. So it'll still be a big hit, but I'm hesitant in saying it will be as much of a success as Finding Dory was last year.

 

Han Solo: $340M

No matter what the behind-the-scenes drama will say, and no matter how pointless you think the movie will be, it's still a Star Wars movie. People are going to see the flick no matter what, and it will easily be in the top 5 highest-grossing films next year. But it's in a much different situation than its recent predecessors. No holiday legs, much more competition (I really feel Disney should have moved the movie to the first weekend of August instead of placing Winnie the Pooh there),  and while people will definitely be excited, it's a stretch to say people are as anticipated with the project as they were with the sequel trilogy or to a lesser extent Rouge One. So not as big as any of the other Star Wars flicks, but it's obviously going to be huge.

 

Black Panther: $335M

T'Challa was one of the highlights for Civil War and the reason why people were so excited to see it. Its teaser trailer made a huge splash online. It has an entire month to itself, with no major tentpole until Disney's own Wrinkle in Time comes out in March. It could very well be a cultural touchstone and an important flick for many people, particularly within the black community (#BlackPantherSoLit was trending once Civil War came out). Easily going to be the biggest MCU origin story.

 

Deadpool 2: $290M

When Deadpool came out, it offered a unique twist, combining superhero adventure with raunchy comedy and meta humor. It helped make the film stand out the fist time, but will the sequel be as much of an event as the first one? Even with the addition of new characters, it's unlikely people will return, unless there's something really fresh and exciting to the formula. I admit it's hard for me to really judge it, as we have no footage to work off of, but I don't know if lighting will strike twice, especially because Deadpool 2 has way more competition than its predecessor.

 

The Grinch: $285M

Aside from Cat in the Hat, The Grinch is likely Seuss' biggest and most recognized novel, especially with its adaptations. The Chuck Jones special is regularly watched every Christmas, and the Jim Carrey film was the #1 film in 2000. Putting together the massively successful Grinch brand with the uber-successful Illumination brand spells out big bucks for Universal. Kids and adults will love it, and it'll easily be another hit for Illumination's porfolio. It won't hit Secret Life of Pets levels though, because of how many family tentpoles there are eating at its dollars. But hey, I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the higher end of Illumination's box office grosses. Never doubt the company and its propaganda-level marketing campaigns.

 

Mary Poppins Returns: $270M

2018 will likely be a banner year for Disney, and Poppins will be the final hurrah for the studio. Similar to The Wizard of Oz, Mary Poppins is one of those classics every family owns in some way or form, and is loved by all generations, still being a massive part of Disney history and pop culture. All of the footage or bits of information revealed have gone over extremely well and have made headlines among Disney fans, and it is the first major Poppins adaptation since the Broadway musical (I know there's Saving Mr. Banks, but it was only a tangential relation, so shuddup). With nostalgia, holiday legs, and being the most appealing option for families in the December timeframe, particularly with girls, it will easily be one of Disney's biggest hits in a year filled with big hits.

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1- Han Solo: A Star Wars Story (or whatever its official name is)*** 

2-Infinity War

3-Black Panther

4- Aquaman

5- Jurassic World 2

 

***I can already see that this will be the greatly underestimated/underpredicted blockbuster of 2018 (despite the Star Wars box office pedigree). 

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Infinity War and JW2 have the best chances for $500M+.

Incredibles 2 and Han Solo seem likely for $400M.

Black Panther, Grinch and Aquaman are doing $300M+ but have chances for $400M+.

RP1 and Deadpool 2 have chances for $300M.

MPR will do solid mid $200M's.

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MCU Top 5 Dom in order of release

623 TA

409 IM3

460 AOU

408 CW

390 GOTG2

 

I think like CW (CA with the addition of IM) and IM3 were close,

IW (Avengers with the addition of GOTG) will end up close to AOU (+/- 20 for 440-480 dom).

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fuck it here's what I have for my top 25 just cause:

 

1. Jurassic World 2 - 502M

2. Han Solo - 488M

3. Grinch - 440M

4. Infinity War - 435M

5. Incredibles 2 - 429M

6. Black Panther - 373M

7. Deadpool 2 - 330M

8. A Wrinkle in Time - 293M

9. Ready Player One - 276M

10. Aquaman - 264M

11. Mortal Engines - 245M

12. Alita: Battle Angel - 217M

13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - 212M

14. Mary Poppins Returns - 203M

15. Ocean's 8 - 201M

16. Animated Spider-Man - 188M

17. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 185M

18. Wreck-it Ralph 2 - 184M

19. First Man - 180M

20. Mission Impossible 6 - 151M

21. Hotel Transylvania 3 - 147M

22. Rampage - 143M

23. Venom - 139M

24. New Mutants - 125M

25. Halloween - 125M

 

I welcome judgement.

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So what are the odds that Chris Pratt stars in the two biggest movies of the year? They're the two favorites, but they're certainly not a lock to own the top 2. Han Solo or Incredibles could potentially beat one of them. Maybe about 50/50 odds?

 

 

 

Besides the movies mentioned in the poll, what are other candidates for the top ten next year? A Wrinkle In Time, Ready Player One, and Animated Spider-Man seem like they might be able to crack the top ten if things go well for them. (Good reviews, marketing, audience connection, etc)

 

What else? Could Dark Phoenix be a hit if it's one of the good X-Men movies? (ie. much better than Apocalypse.)  250 might get it into the top 10, right?

 

Fantastic Beasts seemed to have decent legs. Could this second one do even better?

 

That Christopher Robin/Winnie the Pooh movie???

 

What else? Ocean's 8? Ant-Man and the Wasp? Skyscraper? Alita Battle Angel? Mission Impossible 6? Wreck It Ralph 2?

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10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

MCU Top 5 Dom in order of release

623 TA

409 IM3

460 AOU

408 CW

390 GOTG2

 

I think like CW (CA with the addition of IM) and IM3 were close,

IW (Avengers with the addition of GOTG) will end up close to AOU (+/- 20 for 440-480 dom).

MCU is great for box office nerds. CW(Cap+IM) made less than IM3 and not much far off from gotg 2. Even AOU was not much far off from IM3. With this all addition of characters in different films make this exciting to unfold. Thor 3 result will certainly be good to analyse.

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Avengers: Infinity War- $219 million/$523 million

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom- $183 million/$494 million

The Incredibles 2- $114 million/$385 million

Aquaman- $125 million/$370 million

Han Solo- $130 million/$345 million

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch- $90 million/$335 million

Black Panther- $103 million/$320 million

Deadpool 2- $120 million/$285 million

Mary Poppins Returns- $45 million/$225 million

 

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