Classic Conversation Thread

[oMeriMombatti]

One aspect of this war is that Moscow has generally been trying to keep it hidden from the Russian public. They not only sought a quick & easy victory, but hoped to suppress news about the fighting, keeping images of mil operations across Ukraine out of the public eye.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 27, 2022

BREAKING: Former Russian Central Bank official says there will be a 'catastrophe' on the country's currency market on Monday amid mounting sanctions.

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 27, 2022

 

 

All this points towards how Putin has grossly miscalculated this operation. Hopefully Ukraine can hold them off long enough that these sanctions create murmurs of discontent within Russia. One more point here is a lot of innocent Russian people who have nothing to do with this war are going to feel the effects of economy crashing.

[dudalb]

I propose a drinking game for tommorow's Oscars: take a drink every time Ukraine gets dragged into a speech no many how remote the connection.

I have nothing agains a statment at the beginning of the show but it going to be bit mcuh watching the overkill.

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, dudalb said:

I

dp.

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by dudalb

[dudalb]

6 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

 

 

All this points towards how Putin has grossly miscalculated this operation. Hopefully Ukraine can hold them off long enough that these sanctions create murmurs of discontent within Russia. One more point here is a lot of innocent Russian people who have nothing to do with this war are going to feel the effects of economy crashing.

"HOme Before the Leaves Fall" comes to mind.

[Porthos]

I don't like showing my cynical side on this forum all this much, but this is something I've been thinking about off and on today, and seeing this made me want to comment on it...

 

 

Presuming Putin loses or "loses" or even has (some sort of) victory?

 

...

 

I dunno.  How much of an "international pariah" was China after Tiananmen Square? 

 

As someone who lived then, I'll tell you how much:  So much so that when the time came to renew it's Most Favored (Trading) Nation Status with the US the very next year, the then government of the US of A said "Giddyap Fellas, there's monies in them dar hills!" 

 

(Democrats at time tried to object and attach human rights conditions, but HW Bush vetoed Congressional objections and that eventually was that)

((Okay, more complicated than that as renewal of China's MNF status was a hot button topic for part of the 90s, but ultimately as one can tell, never really went all that far))

 

Now this is an order or three magnitude bigger than Tiananmen Square, sure. For one thing it's against another country and not an internal matter.

 

But, man, I dunno.  Capitalism Gonna Capitalism.  Russia has a lot of "stuff" that folks want and it's not exactly North Korea where The World can just isolate it and try to pretend it doesn't exist most of the time.  Or keep punishing it if it isn't actively engaging in repellant behavior.

 

My cynicism says that sanctions might stick for a while, and seeing Putin on the Diplomatic Party Circuit will probably be curtailed.  But outside of no longer being invited to Swanky Parties... 

 

Well.  Let's see if The International Community surprises me.  I hope it does, but...   I dunno.  Like I said, sometimes my cynicism starts tutting a little loudly on my shoulder.

[dudalb]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I don't like showing my cynical side on this forum all this much, but this is something I've been thinking about off and on today, and seeing this made me want to comment on it...

 

 

Presuming Putin loses or "loses" or even has (some sort of) victory?

 

...

 

I dunno.  How much of an "international pariah" was China after Tiananmen Square? 

 

As someone who lived then, I'll tell you how much:  So much so that when the time came to renew it's Most Favored (Trading) Nation Status with the US the very next year, the then government of the US of A said "Giddyap Fellas, there's monies in them dar hills!" 

 

(Democrats at time tried to object and attach human rights conditions, but HW Bush vetoed Congressional objections and that eventually was that)

((Okay, more complicated than that as renewal of China's MNF status was a hot button topic for part of the 90s, but ultimately as one can tell, never really went all that far))

 

Now this is an order or three magnitude bigger than Tiananmen Square, sure. For one thing it's against another country and not an internal matter.

 

But, man, I dunno.  Capitalism Gonna Capitalism.  Russia has a lot of "stuff" that folks want and it's not exactly North Korea where The World can just isolate it and try to pretend it doesn't exist most of the time.  Or keep punishing it if it isn't actively engaging in repellant behavior.

 

My cynicism says that sanctions might stick for a while, and seeing Putin on the Diplomatic Party Circuit will probably be curtailed.  But outside of no longer being invited to Swanky Parties... 

 

Well.  Let's see if The International Community surprises me.  I hope it does, but...   I dunno.  Like I said, sometimes my cynicism starts tutting a little loudly on my shoulder.

This is a lot worse then Tienmann square. Tienmenan Square ,however reprehensible, was a Internal Chinese Matter; but this was an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country, and Putin's aim of restoring the Soviet Union makes him a clear and present danger. That's the difference.

[dudalb]

I just read the the director of one of the Oscar nonimanted documentaries from the Ukraine is in Kiev. That will be the big Ukraine moment at the Oscars.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

This is a lot worse then Tienmann square. Tienmenan Square ,however reprehensible, was a Internal Chinese Matter; but this was an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country, and Putin's aim of restoring the Soviet Union makes him a clear and present danger. That's the difference.

 

That's A difference, yes.  So too is all of the social media blasting out things far and wide.  And the internet in general, for that matter.

 

Those are big big differences.  Very big differences.

 

You know what's another difference?  Russia is far more interconnected into the Global Financial System and far more financially developed than China was in the late 80s. 

 

Maybe you're right.  Maybe this really is too far even for Late Stage Capitalism to ignore even after the events are well in the rear view mirror. 

 

But... Well, we'll see.  NATO/EU members and Russia might not be on speaking terms for quite a long time, but NATO and the EU aren't the only global players in the world.  Not by a long shot. And once things start chipping away...

 

Eh.  "Give me reason not to be quite so cynical, International Community" is what I would say, ultimately.

[cookie]

29 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I propose a drinking game for tommorow's Oscars: take a drink every time Ukraine gets dragged into a speech no many how remote the connection.

I have nothing agains a statment at the beginning of the show but it going to be bit mcuh watching the overkill.

The Oscars aren't for another month.

[Joyous Legion]

53 minutes ago, Porthos said:

UKRAINE FOREIGN LEGION!!!!

 

👀  

 

 

🤔

[dudalb]

12 minutes ago, cookie said:

The Oscars aren't for another month.

Dammit, you are right.

But now I know what documenatry to bet a lot of money on........

[dudalb]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That's A difference, yes.  So too is all of the social media blasting out things far and wide.  And the internet in general, for that matter.

 

Those are big big differences.  Very big differences.

 

You know what's another difference?  Russia is far more interconnected into the Global Financial System and far more financially developed than China was in the late 80s. 

 

Maybe you're right.  Maybe this really is too far even for Late Stage Capitalism to ignore even after the events are well in the rear view mirror. 

 

But... Well, we'll see.  NATO/EU members and Russia might not be on speaking terms for quite a long time, but NATO and the EU aren't the only global players in the world.  Not by a long shot. And once things start chipping away...

 

Eh.  "Give me reason not to be quite so cynical, International Community" is what I would say, ultimately.

And Putin has shown he is mentally unstable and not to be trusted on anything.

COld war 2 hqs started.

I don't buy the Late Stage Capitialism argument because I think Marxism is a bunch of crap.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, dudalb said:

And Putin has shown he is mentally unstable and not to be trusted on anything.

COld war 2 hqs started.

I don't buy the Late Stage Capitialism argument because I think Marxism is a bunch of crap.

I want to be VERY clear that I don't want it to happen.  Hell, if I'm forced to make a prediction I don't think it will happen for a more than a few reasons.  

 

But can I game out a scenario in my head where verrrrrry slowly over a few years where little by little Putin gets some of his standing back? I can game play it out without too much difficulty. 

 

The biggest thing that I think would stop any sort of thing like this is unrelenting public revulsion and backlash.  Public pressure still matters a lot for this sort of thing.

 

So, again, this isn't something I'm actually predicting has a reasonable chance of happening.   But, well, one doesn't have to be a Marxist (and I'm certainly not) to curl their lip at some aspects of current Capitalism.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Porthos

[Immortal]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I want to be VERY clear that I don't want it to happen.  Hell, if I'm forced to make a prediction I don't think it will happen for a more than a few reasons.  

 

But can I game out a scenario in my head where verrrrrry slowly over a few years where little by little Putin gets some of his standing back? I can game play it out without too much difficulty. 

 

The biggest thing that I think would stop any sort of thing like this is unrelenting public revulsion and backlash.  Public pressure still matters a lot for this sort of thing.

 

So, again, this isn't something I'm actually predicting has a reasonable chance of happening.   But, well, one doesn't have to be a Marxist (and I'm certainly not) to curl their lip at some aspects of current Capitalism.

I don't think that the capital world can ignore Russia, they have to play friends with them after all this is over since they are the biggest Natural gas exporters and second biggest crude oil exporters, and if we remove Russian fossil fuels from the market whole global economy will suffer as cost of fuel rises which in turn will lead to rise in prices of various goods. Thus in my opinion ignoring Russia is and never will be an option, no matter whatever the hell they do

Edited February 27, 2022 by Immortal

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, Immortal said:

I don't think that the capital world can ignore Russia, they have to play friends with them after all this is over since they are the biggest Natural gas exporters and second biggest crude oil exporters, and if we remove Russian fossil fuels from the market whole global economy will suffer as cost of fuel rises which in turn will lead to rise in prices of various goods. Thus in my opinion ignoring Russia is and never will be an option, no matter whatever the hell they do

I don't want to look like I'm flip flopping too much on this as it's more I'm trying to tell my cynical streak to shut the hell up, but I think it'll greatly depend on just how bad the fighting in Ukraine actually gets.

 

It's already more than bad enough that even if Putin stopped everything in the next 24 hours and "cut his losses" as was the phrase in the thread earlier, it'd be an immense struggle (in fact part of, if not most of my scenario playing in my head requires Putin to "cut his losses" - the longer the Ukraine invasion goes on, the harder it gets for me to come up with scenarios [though still not impossible]).

 

But, as you say, there's a lot of natural gas and oil there.

 

Still, Saddam Hussein managed to stick himself on the West's Shit List and his oil didn't get him out of it, so....

Edited February 27, 2022 by Porthos

[CJohn]

On 2/21/2022 at 10:41 PM, grim22 said:

There you go underestimating Portugal again. @CJohnis just waiting for the order to move

My swords and guns are getting prepared as we speak. Russia will screw us all. Enjoy life while you can, COVID was just the beginning!

On 2/21/2022 at 10:43 PM, Porthos said:

 

I look forward to his Ernest Hemingway/George Orwell style diaries reporting on the horrors and banality of war in due time.

I will last exactly 30 seconds which include 29 seconds where I bleed out to death. I am not sure if that will be enough time to write a diary but I will try!

Edited February 27, 2022 by CJohn

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, dudalb said:

I propose a drinking game for tommorow's Oscars: take a drink every time Ukraine gets dragged into a speech no many how remote the connection.

I have nothing agains a statment at the beginning of the show but it going to be bit mcuh watching the overkill.

You're thinking of the SAG awards (which are tonight).

[Brainbug]

Id like to say that the actions of my government today in a special meeting of our parliament have very much restored my faith and trust in them. Complete solidarity with Ukraine, a U-turn on our bad foreign policy with regards to Putins Russia and a 100 billion dollar spending package for our armed forces showing that there is the will to make sure we are a reliable partner for our allies in NATO and EU. Im actually proud of my country now.

[Joyous Legion]

So hey, are any of Zelensky’s movies like… good?   
 

How about that TV comedy where he played the president of Ukraine?

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Id like to say that the actions of my government today in a special meeting of our parliament have very much restored my faith and trust in them. Complete solidarity with Ukraine, a U-turn on our bad foreign policy with regards to Putins Russia and a 100 billion dollar spending package for our armed forces showing that there is the will to make sure we are a reliable partner for our allies in NATO and EU. Im actually proud of my country now.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the quick reversal in stance by Germany. Now I hope Germans pressure their government to cut off this dependency on gas as quickly as possible (and hopefully not dismantle any remaining nuclear plants, at least until it can be fully replaced by green energy rather than more gas). The best way to ensure that Russia is removed as a threat in the future is to hit them where it will hurt the most and that is gas and oil.