2012-Best Actress thread!

[riczhang]

I'm thinking Meryl makes it in again this year. Just a general vibe and feeling I'm getting from talking to some people.

[The Futurist]

I don't get how this works.It is Oscar prediction or our tastes ???

[Impact]

Oscar predictions.

[The Futurist]

So this whole section is about oscar predicition ???

[forg]

Meryl Streep isn't happening IMO, it's a comedy, and she just won, so the Academy probably will give her a break, especially seeing as she's as of now the runaway favourite for actress the following year in "August: Osage County." [but, we all know how runaway favourite status works for Streep ] But, to her credit, this movie's directed by the Director that got her a nomination for "Prada", and managed to convince the Academy that she was lead, so she could..... but I don't see it. Plus, it's being released in August now, so it'll need to get like "The Help" level of box office success if it wants to be seriously considered for awards [Apart from the Golden Globes of course]

reviews for Hope Springs are strong and if this become a 100 million box office hit (which it has a shot at this point) then i think she's a lock for another nomination, not a win of course since the role is not baity and she just won Edited August 8, 2012 by forg

[JackO]

reviews for Hope Springs are strong and if this become a 100 million box office hit (which it has a shot at this point) then i think she's a lock for another nomination, not a win of course since the role is not baity and she just won

Best Actress is weak. I'd rather have Streep nominated for Hope Springs then Mulligan or Knightley's overrated performances getting overly gushed again.

[The Futurist]

1. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

4. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

5. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Possible Spoilers:

6. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson

7. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down

8. Amy Adams, Trouble With The Curve

9. Maggie Smith, Quartet

10. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Longer Shots:

11. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

12. Kristin Wiig, Imogene

13. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip

14. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

15. Leslie Mann, This is 40

[Impact]

Double nom for Amy Adams?

[JackO]

New top 5

Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of Southern Wild

Meryl Streep - Hope Springs

VIola Davis - Won't Back Down

Amy Adams - Trouble With the Curve

Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Edited August 31, 2012 by JackO

[The Futurist]

Not Meryl again, pleeeeeaaaaase !!!

[Impact]

Coming soon:Streep, PenninSitting down on a chair all Day: The MovieNominated for 44 Oscars!

[CoolioD1]

I read on In Contention that Naomi Watts is great in The Impossible and is a likely contender. I hope so.

[The Futurist]

Naomi Watts is one of the best actresses of her generation.Too bad she got famous so late ...

[Impact]

Predicts: Amy Adams for Trouble with the CurveViola Davis for Wont Back DownHelen Hunt for The SessionsKiera Knightley for AnnaNaomi Watts for The Impossible

[altbum]

Based on the early reception for SLP I'd say Jen moves into the list and likely at the top:Jennifer LawrenceQuvenzhane WallisMarione CotillardNaomi WattsKiera Knightley (or possibly Helen Hunt)

[The Futurist]

Please, award season don't do the 6 year old child actor show, pleeeeaaaaase !!!!!And no Meryl Streep, thanks.

[Impact]

Yes she be too young to watch 90% of the clips Plus she fall asleep anyway there

[CoolioD1]

Marion CotillardJennifer LawrenceHelen HuntWhatsherface from Beasts of the Southern WildNaomi WattsI'm gonna see Anna Karenina tomorrow, but from what I've heard it doesn't sound like Keira is in a good position to be nominated.

[JackO]

Marion Cotillard

Jennifer Lawrence

Helen Hunt

Whatsherface from Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts

I'm gonna see Anna Karenina tomorrow, but from what I've heard it doesn't sound like Keira is in a good position to be nominated.

Excellent.

[riczhang]

Hunt's being moved supporting I'm fairly sure.

Actress this year is honestly the biggest clusterfuck I've seen in some time, and it's just so open, at least 2-3 spots are wide open right now. I'm thinking:

1. Jennifer Lawrence - The Silver Linings Playbook

2. Quvenzhane Wallis (I finally learned to spell this ) - Beasts of the Southern Wild

3. Meryl Streep - Hope Springs

4. Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

5. Maggie Smith - Quartet

This entire line-up skews incredibly old, and I know that but honestly I have no idea who to predict other than those 3 veteran actresses.

Jennifer Lawrence: The only lock we have of the field, her movie is very well received, and she got raves out of TIFF. Plus she is hot, fuckable, and she's had an extraordinary year with THG crossing $400 million, which is close to HP1 adjusted if I'm not wrong. She's the de facto front runner, and favourite to win as of now. However it is a comedy of sorts so that definitely may be a problem for her if a strong Drama contender pops up.

Quvenzhane Wallis: A semi-lock. Her film is definitely loved, at least by some, with half of its MC scores being 100. However, the feeling is that the film may be divisive, and that the Academy won't embrace it. Also, she is loosing steam, and she needs buzz, and talk desperately, along with a good haul of critic's breakthrough actress awards if she wants to survive until the noms. The biggest problem is that if the Academy embraces some of the second tier contenders (Watts, Keira, Winstead, and etc.), then I hate to say this but it's probably the unkown 9 year old African-American girl that gets the boot first rather than someone like Streep. So to avoid that happening she must keep the buzz going for her, and it feels like it's dying.

Meryl Streep: She's Meryl Streep. That explain everything? But, seriously, she's had some of the best reviews of the year for her performance, and her film has had some pretty good reviews as well. She's just coming off her win, but that could go both ways, either helping her momentum, or hindering it. Also, she's Meryl Bloody Streep, and half of Hollywood treats her like she's god, so you can bet on Julia, Sandra, and co. voting for (and even possibly at #1) whether they've seen her movie of not.

Emmanuelle Riva: This one I'm not very sure about, it's either her or Marion Cotillard. In a weak year like this, I'm almost 100% sure that one of these very well received foreign language performances will make it in the line-up. While Marion Cotillard is the right age, hot, fuckable, a previous Oscar winner, plays a character with a disability, and has gotten very good notices for her performance, I think that the edge goes to Riva. Why? Because Riva’s in the better film, and in the film that’s getting a lot of awards attention, and if you ask any academy member which screener they’re going to pop in first, Amour or Rust and Bone, I’ll guarantee most of them will say Amour. Plus, the film Amour, is a stronger film, and has a lot of potential nominations, especially if the AMPAS really embraces it, which I think they will. We’re looking at Picture, Director, Screenplay (And the Win for this one), Actress, Foreign Film (This is locked, and loaded for the win), and maybe a few techs, for Amour compared to probably just Actress for Rust and Bone. Also, IMO Emmanuelle Riva gives the best performance of the year, so hauntingly real, raw, and utterly brilliant, and while I haven’t seen Rust and Bone, I don’t imagine any performance topping Riva for me this year. It’s also not my bias talking, many Oscar followers are also saying that Riva gives the better performance between her and Cotillard. So, I think that at the end of the day, Riva will be the one to get in, and not Cotillard. There is a chance for both, however, they’re still foreign language performances and that’s a huge barrier for any performance to overcome, and I don’t see the Academy having room for 2 even in a year that’s so barren that Meryl Streep’s looking fairly good for a nom with a Rom-Com Drama.

Maggie Smith: This is the open spot that I’m not sure about, honestly it could go to a lot of people, but I picked Smith because she’s respected, and she’s gotten the best notices for her performance coming out of the fests. Also, Smith is a very well respected Veteran within the industry, and her film is much more up the Academy’s alley than Watts, and probably even Knightley’s (Knightley’s could be more though.) Also her film has also gotten the better reviews than Knightley’s and Watts’s so that definitely is a plus. Lastly, Smith is still riding Downton Mania, and that probably will carry her to an SAG nom, and coupled with her locked BAFTA nom I’d say she’s looking better than the tier 2 competitors for that last Oscar space.

For the Tier 2 and 3 Contenders:

Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina): Film is definitely not very well reviewed, but I supposed it could’ve been worse, and her reviews were not stellar, while solid, definitely not the raves that she probably needed. Her film however looks like it could score a few techs, which could help her minutely, but that’s just grasping at straws. A Drama Globe nod is probably the best she can hope for.

Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone): See Emmanuelle Riva for explanation.

Naomi Watts (The Impossible): Going off of audience reviews, and people I know who’ve seen it. Naomi is incapacitated for most of the movie, and isn’t really given too much to work with. What she has been given she’s done a good job on, but her role isn’t really as big as we all thought, however she does have one or two good Oscar scenes. But, keep in mind for some inexplicable reason the Academy hates Naomi, so I’d say she has to wait for next year for her Princess Diana bio-pic before she can return to the Oscar red carpet.

Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha): Movie’s been received pretty well, and so’s the performance. However, despite premiering over a week ago, and produced by Scott Rudin, no distributor has touched the film. Also, getting the Academy to see it will be a huge problem.

Mary Elisabeth Winstead (Smashed): Getting the Academy to pop in the screener will be a huge obstacle, and the performance doesn’t seem to be as good as a whole as some of the clips seem to have indicated.

Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson): The movie didn’t get received very well, and all the praise is turned at Murray. Looks like Linney got totally overshadowed by her co-star.

Helen Hunt (The Sessions, or whatever the name’s been changed to now.): Moved to supporting

Amy Adams (Trouble with the Curve): Probably more of a role that will help push her to a possible supporting nom for The Master (Which I don’t think she’ll get) than anything else. However TIFF seemed to have an enthusiastic reaction to the premier screening.

Viola Davis (Won’t Back Down): A) It looks like a Lifetime movie She’s supporting

Edited September 12, 2012 by riczhang