Jake Gittes Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I've deluded myself into thinking that Riva will win, a la career achievement, and Cotillard in 07.And how many people among voters will care about her career to such an extent? Nothing against her, but she's not exactly Christopher Plummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And how many people among voters will care about her career to such an extent? Nothing against her, but she's not exactly Christopher Plummer.And, that's exactly why she'll win, the Academy knows exactly who she is, and who Haneke is, those are the people who've followed her career, who've seen her in masterpieces like Hiroshima Mon Amour, and etc. Much more than something say like the SAG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And, that's exactly why she'll win, the Academy knows exactly who she is, and who Haneke is, those are the people who've followed her career, who've seen her in masterpieces like Hiroshima Mon Amour, and etc. Much more than something say like the SAG.When it took Plummer his second nomination to win, and when the voters never had it in mind to reward Ruby Dee, Hal Holbrook and Max von Sydow with anything more than a nomination in recent years, they aren't going to reward a foreign actress a lot of them haven't heard about before. They aren't all hardcore cinephiles, you know. And even if they did happen to see Hiroshima Mon Amour at some point, I'm pretty sure they had other things to do rather than track the subsequent career of the lead actress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 When it took Plummer his second nomination to win, and when the voters never had it in mind to reward Ruby Dee, Hal Holbrook and Max von Sydow with anything more than a nomination in recent years, they aren't going to reward a foreign actress a lot of them haven't heard about before. They aren't all hardcore cinephiles, you know. And even if they did happen to see Hiroshima Mon Amour at some point, I'm pretty sure they had other things to do rather than track the subsequent career of the lead actress.They know who she is, this is the academy, high brow and all, and Amour is an ultimate High Brow film. Also, believe it if you will, which I doubt you will, but Haneke's name also carries huge connotations within the Academy. This is the AMPAS, not the MTV movie awards, they know exactly who Haneke, and Riva are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Cannes and Venice are high brow. The Academy is where Denzel Washington asks his wife to vote because he couldn't care less.Sure, I have no doubt a good part of the voters recognize Haneke's name and some recognize Riva's, but that doesn't mean they are all going to suddenly get filled with endless appreciation of her career and give her an Oscar when they didn't bother giving one to much more recognizable American and international actors (whom I've listed previously) and when they've been awarding Best Actress to hot up-and-comers with showy roles like Lawrence's since the dawn of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 When it took Plummer his second nomination to win, and when the voters never had it in mind to reward Ruby Dee, Hal Holbrook and Max von Sydow with anything more than a nomination in recent years, they aren't going to reward a foreign actress a lot of them haven't heard about before.Who`s to say that they simply don`t like MvS,RD and HH enough or their roles when they were nominated? Just because it`s MvS, it doesn`t mean that the role itself is a win-ready. wasn`t he nominated for ELAIC? Yeah, I bet he wouldn`t have voted for that either.trouble with those old "name" actros is that they tedn to be overlooked for worthy work and then get a make-up nom because of the name. However, because everyone knows it`s a make-up nom, that`s their reward. No win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Cannes and Venice are high brow. The Academy is where Denzel Washington asks his wife to vote because he couldn't care less.Sure, I have no doubt a good part of the voters recognize Haneke's name and some recognize Riva's, but that doesn't mean they are all going to suddenly get filled with endless appreciation of her career and give her an Oscar when they didn't bother giving one to much more recognizable American and international actors (whom I've listed previously) and when they've been awarding Best Actress to hot up-and-comers with showy roles like Lawrence's since the dawn of time.Think that if you must, but I have to vehemently digress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Who`s to say that they simply don`t like MvS,RD and HH enough or their roles when they were nominated? Just because it`s MvS, it doesn`t mean that the role itself is a win-ready. wasn`t he nominated for ELAIC? Yeah, I bet he wouldn`t have voted for that either.trouble with those old "name" actros is that they tedn to be overlooked for worthy work and then get a make-up nom because of the name. However, because everyone knows it`s a make-up nom, that`s their reward. No win.By keeping doing make-up awards it causes the younger actors not to win actors for the roles they should have won for. Then latter on they will get a make-up award because they should all ready received an Oscar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I hate make up policy. I hope my faves win real deal, not something that will have backlash forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 They didn't give it to Max since they gave it to Chris who had a really long career also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think it'll come down to Riva and Lawrence. Right now, my money is on Lawrence but if Amour really hits hard with the older Academy members, all bets are off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Cotillard just snuffed it with European Awards. Riva has the win in the bag, Euro one, that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) Cotillard just snuffed it with European Awards. Riva has the win in the bag, Euro one, that is.YES! Riva, she deserves it. Surprised to see Cotillard snuffed, and that's probably it for her Academy Chances. If she can't even get the European film awards to nominate her, I doubt they'll nominate her for the Oscar. I'm loving the TTSS love as well. 1. Riva2. Lawrence3. Mirren4. Knightley5. Streep Edited November 3, 2012 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackO Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 LawrenceKnightleyChastain (whose odds just past old lady form Amour this week)CottliardWallis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You guys think Knightley will make it? With such mixed reviews and likely weak box office? I really don't see anything but techs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You guys think Knightley will make it? With such mixed reviews and likely weak box office? I really don't see anything but techs.The question is who else though? She's on shakey ground but honestly, I've already explained my reasoning as to why Chastain won't get in. Watts, the Academy practically hates her, and her role is too passive IMO. Wallis, I'm banking on a SAG momentum loss translating into a snub. Smith's train derailed about 6 weeks ago, and honestly there's no one serious left but Knightley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Can't count out Chastain yet. Hard to do when so little is known about her performance/how much the focus is on her vs other characters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I thought it was confirmed Chastain was the clear lead of ZDT? I think she's in, and I also think Wallis ends up getting in just from goodwill Beasts has. People who saw it loved it. Also, I must admit I wasn't aware the Academy hated Watts. What happened? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 (edited) I thought it was confirmed Chastain was the clear lead of ZDT? I think she's in, and I also think Wallis ends up getting in just from goodwill Beasts has. People who saw it loved it. Also, I must admit I wasn't aware the Academy hated Watts. What happened?I don't think it's has to do with something she did but rather the fact that she's turned in arguably several great lead performances but only has one nomination (21 Grams), so the perception is they have something against her. Edited November 4, 2012 by 4815162342 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 (edited) I thought it was confirmed Chastain was the clear lead of ZDT? I think she's in, and I also think Wallis ends up getting in just from goodwill Beasts has. People who saw it loved it. Also, I must admit I wasn't aware the Academy hated Watts. What happened?Chastain's getting a lead campaign but my opinion is that the movie is still a very large ensemble piece, and that in the scope of things she will not be clearly lead but Borderline. This and her performance being just one out of many substantial parts will hurt her. It's not like Davis in The Help who shined. I don't personally like Davis much and think Spencer was better, but I can see why she shined in an extremely borderline role. I'll admit that part of my anti-beasts bias is because I hated the movie and the performance, but honestly this is a 6 year old girl. And she's African American, let's not kid ourselves and pretend that those two factors don't make it extremely hard for her right off the bat. The fact that SAG has ruled her ineligible, and the fact that BFCA could very well be her only televised award nom, coupled with what I've already said I think in my opinion will cause her to miss. As for Watts it's exactly what Numbers said. Naomi Watts and her case of only one nomination is baffling to me, unless the Academy has something against her. Edited November 4, 2012 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
