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Best Supporting Actor-2012

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After seeing Argo I hope Arkin doesn't get in. It's a non-performance unless they want to nominate not Arkin, but "Argo fuck yourself". Especially if Di Caprio and Jackson are as good in DU as they seem to be, they are going to need those two spots with Hoffman and TLJ already locked in and De Niro and Crowe being incredibly likely.

Edited by Jake Gittes
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I don't think anyone from django will get a nom tbh. the movie is still not finished and might be a big mess.right now my prediction is:JonesHoffmanDeniroCroweArkinwith the winner being between deniro, hoffman and jones. whoever campaigns the hardest will win lol

Edited by senmitsuji
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Looks like Redmayne is our newest big contender in this category. And he solves the first timer problem that's been plaguing this category. 1. Tommy Lee Jones2. Eddie Redmayne3. Leonardo DiCaprio (Gonna stick with this for now)4. & 5. Between Crowe, De Niro, Alan Arkin, and PSH.

Edited by riczhang
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I've been digging throuhg Oscar stats again, and I'm wary about predicting for Jones at #1 and the win right now because the Academy just rewarded a very old Veteran, and they often like awarding a younger first-time winner the next year. So, that leaves DiCaprio and Redmayne. My money's on DiCaprio at this point, unless Django bombs but we'll hear about this within about 2 weeks. In order of nomination: 1. Tommy Lee-Jones2. Eddie Remayne3. Leonardo Dicaprio4. Robert De Niro5. Russell Crowe 6. Philip Seymour Hoffman 7. Alan Arkin (This one's probably more likely than PSH, but I really hope he doesn't get nommed for this nothing performance)In terms of a win: 1. Leonardo DiCaprio2. Eddie Redmayne3. Tommy Lee Jones4. Russell Crowe5. Robert De Niro

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Some people really like to overanalyse these Oscar stats....

Analysing Oscar Stats, and Oscar momentum helps. They follow these weird patterns even if they're subconcious, our job is to just dig deep and find them.If you didn't analyse them you would've never predicted Hugo (Unless you're just blind guessing) for Visual Effects. Everyone thought ROTPOTA was running away with it, and for me that was never the case. Hugo was the winner the moment the nominations were announced and it was the only BP nominee in the category. Momentum helped to predict Streep, and etc. Edited by riczhang
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