2017 Critics/Alternate Awards Discussion

[Ezen Baklattan]

Gotham Awards Winners

Spoiler

Best Picture: Call Me By Your Name

Best Actor: James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Best Screenplay: Get Out

Best Documentary: Small Island

 

National Board of Review

Spoiler

Best Picture: The Post

Best Director: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Best Actor: Tom Hanks (The Post)

Best Actress: Meryl Streep (The Post)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Original Screenplay: Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist

Best Ensemble: Get Out

Best First Feature: Get Out

Top 10 Films: Baby Driver, Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Downsizing, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird, Logan, Phantom Thread

 

New York Film Critics Association

Spoiler

Best Picture: Lady Bird

Best Director: Sean Baker (The Florida Project)

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

Best Screenplay: Phantom Thread

Best Animated Feature: Coco

Best Foreign Film: BPM

Best Documentary: Faces/Places

Best Cinematography: Mudbound

Best First Feature: Get Out

 

Los Angeles Film Critics Association

Spoiler

Best Picture: Call Me By Your Name

Best Director: TIE: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Screenplay: Get Out

Best Animated Film: The Breadwinner

Best Foreign Film: TIE: BPM, Loveless

Best Documentary: Faces/Places

Best Film Editing: Dunkirk

Best Production Design: Blade Runner 2049

Best Music: Phantom Thread

 

AFI Top 10 Films

Spoiler

The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

 

Detroit Film Critics

Spoiler

Best Picture: The Florida Project

Best Director: Sean Baker (The Florida Project)

Best Actor: James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Best Ensemble: The Post

Best Breakthrough: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Animated Film: The LEGO Batman Movie

Best Documentary: Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond

Best Music: Baby Driver

 

Washington DC Film Critics

Spoiler

Best Picture: Get Out

Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Ensemble: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Breakthrough: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay: Mudbound

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Jane

Best Foreign Film: BPM

Best Production Design: Blade Runner: 2049

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner: 2049

Best Editing: Baby Driver

Best Original Score: Blade Runner: 2049

 

Boston Film Critics Association

Spoiler

Best Picture: Get Out

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Ensemble: Get Out

Best Breakthrough: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Faces Places

Best Foreign Film: First They Killed My Father

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner: 2049

Best Editing: Dunkirk

Best Original Score: Phantom Thread

Top 10 Films: Get Out, The Florida Project, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, A Ghost Story, Good Time

 

Boston Society of Film Critics

Spoiler

Best Picture: Phantom Thread

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Ensemble: The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best Breakthrough: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Screenplay: Lady Bird

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Dawson City: Frozen Time

Best Foreign Film: The Square

Best Cinematography: Dunkirk

Best Editing: A Ghost Story

Best Original Score: Phantom Thread

 

San Francisco Film Critics Circle

Spoiler

Best Picture: The Florida Project

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor: Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)

Best Actress: Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Ensemble: The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best Breakthrough: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Faces/Places

Best Foreign Film: BPM

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner: 2049

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water

Best Editing: Baby Driver

Best Original Score: Phantom Thread

 

New York Online Film Critics

Spoiler

Best Picture: TIE: Mudbound and The Florida Project

Best Director: Dee Rees (Mudbound)

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress: Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Best Ensemble: Mudbound

Best Breakthrough: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Best First Feature: Get Out

Best Screenplay: Get Out

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story

Best Foreign Film: In The Fade

Best Cinematography: The Shape of Water

Best Use of Music: Baby Driver

Top 10 Films: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Mudbound, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water

 

Toronto Film Critics Association

Spoiler

Best Picture: The Florida Project

Best Director: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actor: Williem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best First Feature: Get Out

Best Screenplay: Get Out

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Faces Places

Best Foreign Film: The Square

 

San Diego Film Critics Association

Spoiler

Best Picture: Get Out

Best Director: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Best Actor: James McAvoy (Split)

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (Maudie)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Best First Feature: Get Out

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist

Best Animated Film: My Life as a Zucchini

Best Documentary: Jane

Best Editing: Baby Driver

Best Cinematography: Dunkirk

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Foreign Film: TIE: Beauty and the Beast and Phantom Thread

Best Use of Music: Baby Driver

Best Breakthrough: Timothee Chalamet

Best Ensemble: Mudbound

 

San Diego Film Critics Association

Spoiler

Best Picture: Get Out

Best Director: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actor: Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying)

Best Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

Best Comedy Feature: Girls Trip

Best Screenplay: Get Out

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary: Step

Best Foreign Film: The Wound

Best Original Song: "It Ain't Fair" -Detroit

Best Ensemble: Detroit

Top 10 Films: Get Out, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Coco, Girls Trip, Detroit, Call Me By Your Name, The Shape of Water, Gook, Crown Heights, Marshall

 

Upcoming Awards

Spoiler

12/13: SAG Nominations

12/18: Las Vegas Film Critics Awards

 

1/4: WGA Nominations

1/5: PGA Nominations

1/6: National Society of Film Critics Awards

1/7: Golden Globe Nominations

1/9: BAFTA Film Nominations, People's Choice Awards (Lol)

1/10: DGA Nominations

1/11: Critics Choice Awards

1/15: NAACP Awards

1/20: PGA Awards

1/21: SAG Awards

 

2/3: DGA Awards

2/11: WGA Awards

2/13: Visual Effects Society Awards

2/18: BAFTA Awards

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Love this thread every year. I say Dunkirk for NBR is smart but Get Out and Call Me By Your Name win most of the critic's awards this year, with Lady Bird picking up a share too. I actually think Get Out wins NBR and Nolan takes Director.

[SLAM!]

5 minutes ago, spaghetti! said:

Here’s a thread to discuss the first stage of critics awards! NBR announces on Tuesday - gonna say that Dunkirk takes it considering their love of WB.

 

Is it okay if I ask what NBR is?

[Ezen Baklattan]

National Board of Review. Usually this is pretty ineffectual and is easily biased by studios (especially WB) but they’re still fun as the first major awards of the season.

[Ezen Baklattan]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Love this thread every year. I say Dunkirk for NBR is smart but Get Out and Call Me By Your Name win most of the critic's awards this year, with Lady Bird picking up a share too. I actually think Get Out wins NBR and Nolan takes Director.

I can def see that too.

[CoolioD1]

2 hours ago, spaghetti! said:

Here’s a thread to discuss the first stage of critics awards! NBR announces on Tuesday - gonna say that Dunkirk takes it considering their love of WB.

it's been pointed out previously that they have A24 affiliations as well so look out for any Florida Project/Lady Bird/Disaster Artist love.

Edited November 25, 2017 by CoolioD1

[Ezen Baklattan]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's been pointed out previously that they have A24 affiliations as well so look out for any Florida Project/Lady Bird/Disaster Artist love.

Lady Bird seems like the most likely of all of them, but Moonlight seemed like it would easily win there too. (Manchester By The Sea did - hell, maybe Amazon is a big player and The Big Sick can win) 

 

Man I’m spending too much energy on this awards show lol

[The Panda]

I could see Lady Bird, Get Out, Cmbyn and Big Sick getting a lot of critic wins.

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, spaghetti! said:

National Board of Review. Usually this is pretty ineffectual and is easily biased by studios (especially WB) but they’re still fun as the first major awards of the season.

Let's all be thankfu Clint didn't rush that 15:17 to Paris movie to this year (like it seemed it would) and it will open in February. They looooovvvvee Clint, or anyone related to him (they named Fury - which had Scott in a supporting role - for Best Ensemble three years ago lmfao).

[The Panda]

My overall critic predicts

Get Out takes the most BP wins

Nolan gets the most director wins

Timothee Chalamet gets the most BA wins

Frances McDormand gets the most BAs wins

Dafoe gets the most BSA wins

Janney gets the most BSAs wins

CMBYN gets the most adapted screenplay wins

Three Billboards gets the most OS wins

Deakins gets the most Cinematography wins

[RichWS]

NBR:

 

BEST FILM
The Post

 

BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

 

BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
Jordan Peele, Get Out

 

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE
Get Out

 

BEST ACTOR
Tom Hanks, The Post

 

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep, The Post

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coco (Disney/Pixar)

 

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE MALE
Timothée Chalamet,  Call Me By Your Name

 

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE FEMALE

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)

[4815162342]

Only Da Berg has the power to break the WB legions at NBR.

 

But even then A24 still got a goodly amount of love. So Berg's juice only goes so far.

Edited November 28, 2017 by 4815162342

[SLAM!]

I would like to see how well The Post performs outside of this before I jump to conclusions.

 

But wins like this that don't necessarily have other nominations displayed alongside them can really only be helpful to those that did manage to win.

[4815162342]

New York Film Critics Circle- November 30th

 

The next notable precursor

[The Panda]

I'm working on trying to make a weighted model for precursors to see if I can use it to make an accurate predictor for the Oscars.

 

Currently (given that there's only been three precursors with Gotham, Spirits and NBR)

 

Overall I would have these in awards contention (the ranked ones having what I'd consider a significant advantage)
 

 

 

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Florida Project
5. The Post
6. The Disaster Artist
7. Phantom Thread
8. I, Tonya
9. The Rider
10. Good Time
11. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri
12. Dunkirk
13. Logan
14. Downsizing

15. Baby Driver

Wonder Woman

Columbus

Mudbound

Beach Rats

Killing of the Sacred Deer

The Big Sick

Marjorie Prime

 

The Model currently has

 

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep
2. Saorise Ronan
3. Margot Robbie

Frances McDormand

Beatriz Hayek

Shinobu Terajima

 

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet
2. Tom Hanks
3. James Franco

Daniel Kaluuya

Harris Dickinson

Robert Pattinson

 

Director

1. Peele, Get Out
2. Gerwig, Lady Bird

Baker, The Florida Project

Carpigna, A Ciambra

Guadadigno, Call Me By Your Name

Safdie, Good Time

Zhao, The Rider

 

Supporting Actor: Dafoe

Supporting Actress: Metcalf

Original Screenplay: Phantom Thread

Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist

 

I'll update it more as more precursors come in, I figure the more precursors that happen the more refined the predicts will become.  I'm basing the weight I give an award based on the historical correlation to the Oscars, and if there's a direct relationship (such as SAG or PGA), if it's a win or a nom, etc.  Currently it's still skewed by a movie overperforming in one awards branch due to only being three I am measuring rn.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by The Panda

[That One Girl]

With precursors taken into account and including all contenders, here are my predictions (ranked based on likelihood with mother! thrown in at the end for comedic effect)

 

1. The Post
2. Call Me by Your Name
3. Dunkirk
4. Get Out
5. Lady Bird
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. The Florida Project
8. The Shape of Water
9. Phantom Thread
10. Darkest Hour
11. Blade Runner 2049
12. Molly's Game
13. The Big Sick
14. I, Tonya
15. Mudbound
16. The Disaster Artist
17. Logan
18. All the Money in the World
19. Baby Driver
20. Good Time
21. Detroit
22. Wind River
23. Coco
24. War for the Planet of the Apes
25. Wonder Woman
26. Loving Vincent
27. Downsizing
28. Wonderstruck
29. mother!

[RichWS]

1 hour ago, That One Jar Jar Binks said:

29. mother!

 

[SLAM!]

3 hours ago, The Panda said:

Beatriz Hayek

 

[The Panda]

47 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

Lol I think I meant Hayek from Beatriz at Dinner?

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, The Panda said:

Lol I think I meant Hayek from Beatriz at Dinner?

 

Yeah, Salma Hayek from Beatriz at Dinner.

 

Maybe we're underestimating how good of a job Salma did in that film if people are already confusing her with her character.