SLAM! Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Actor is up next Loveless won't be going loveless after all. I had a feeling it'd manage to do well because the director also did Leviathan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Chalamet won Best Actor and Franco was runner up. No DDL, and they love him. Feel like we're gonna get alot of that the rest of awards season. I'm ready to see if this kid impresses me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I feel like Chalamet and Franco will be so successful that we'll be left without much of a straight clue on who else could be a nominee. I still think Oldman is in the race for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Feels like Chalamet/Oldman/Franco/DDL/Hanks is a solid bet, but maybe Kayuula or Gyllenhaal jumps into the last spot. Doubt it though. I think those five seems like a safe bet, or as safe as can be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Feels like Chalamet/Oldman/Franco/DDL/Hanks is a solid bet, but maybe Kayuula or Gyllenhaal jumps into the last spot. Doubt it though. I think those five seems like a safe bet, or as safe as can be. Yeah. Everyone else just feels like Supporting Actor from a few years ago when an alternative to Duvall was trying to be found. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 OH FUCK THIS IS BIG 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I think if it's Chalamet v Franco, Franco will win due to age Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, The Last Panda said: I think if it's Chalamet v Franco, Franco will win due to age Same. I think the major shows go like this: Globes: Chalamet/Franco SAG: Franco BAFTA: DDL Oscars: Franco Last year was the first time SAG got Actor wrong since the year Depp won for POTC I believe, and Denzel had never won at SAG before Fences. Edited December 3, 2017 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Shape of Water has been getting a ton of love here. Could see GDT take director. Picture is between CMBYN, Lady Bird, and Shape of Water, I’d say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: OH FUCK THIS IS BIG wow, JLaw upset. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, spaghetti! said: Shape of Water has been getting a ton of love here. Could see GDT take director. Picture is between CMBYN, Lady Bird, and Shape of Water, I’d say. Or maybe they stop teasing 3B and give it the win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 CMBYM wins BP, Florida Project runner-up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 This is a great day for The Shape of Water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 @spaghetti! are you going to keep track of all the precursor winners in the first post of this thread? If you aren't then I or someone else should (either in a running post in this thread or in a new thread) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 I'll update it now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 LAFCA stats: Picture: Since 2011, the winner and runner-up have all been nominated for Picture. In 2010, The Social Network was nominated but Carlos was not. Going back to the 5-nominee period, neither of 2008's movies (TDK/WALL-E) were nominated and 2003's winner American Splendor was not nominated. Only three BP winners this millennium have showed up here: Hurt Locker, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The Florida Project is gaining traction fast! Director: Their record is a lot shakier here. The winner has been an Oscar nominee every time this decade except half of 2010 (Assayas tied with Fincher) and 2012 (PTA). Last decade, every winner save for Pedro Almodvar was nominated. As for runner ups, there have been 3 misses this decade (Bigelow/Jonze/Haynes) and 4 misses last decade (Haynes/Cronenberg/Nolan/Haneke). The Oscar winner has showed up 7 times here: 6 winners (Soderbergh/Jackson/Lee 05/Boyle/Bigelow/Cuaron) and 1 runner up (Chazelle). Actor: This decade, 4 winners (Firth/Phoenix/Dern/Fassbender) and 3 runner ups (Ejiofor/Keaton/Affleck) have been Oscar nominees. In 2005-2009, the LAFCA winners (excluding Cohen's tie with Whitaker) were the Oscar winners, and every runner up save for Langella in 2007 were nominees. In 2000 and 2004, neither the winner or runner up were nominees, while 2001-2003 had everyone nominated with Penn as the runner up in 03. That's a total of 8 winners this millennium with only two being runner ups! Actress: Every winner since 2012 (excluding the Adele tie in 2013) has been a nominee (JLaw and Riva/Blanchett/Arquette/Rampling/Huppert). Their runner up record is decent too: Moore and Ronan were the runner ups in 2014 and 2015. They got nothing in 2011 and only JLaw as a runner up in 2010. Supporting Actor: The Oscar winner has appeared in some capacity since 2011: Plummer, Leto, Simmons, and Ali were the winners while Waltz and Rylance were runner ups. Basically, this does nothing to help us figure out Supporting Actor when the two frontrunners won Supporting Actress: Their record here isn't strong. Including Arquette's Actress win, Hathaway (runner up) and Nyong'o are the only winners this decade. 2011-2013 had both the winner and runner up get nominated, but between 2014-2016, Michelle Williams (runner up) was the only nominee to appear in any form. Metcalf is obviously safe, but this doesn't help Blige too much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 There's really no consensus choice for most awards rn besides maybe Dafoe and Chalamet. BP is looking wild to predict once we get past noms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The Florida Project is really gaining a lot of traction- and it really does deserve it. I think Bria Vinaite is a few critic nominations away from being launched into the Supporting Actress discussion. She has to get those noms, though. Sally Hawkins has received the legitimization she needs. I hope she keeps the momentum going, because based on trailers alone, she really deserves at least a nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Which precursors are next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, slambros said: The Florida Project is really gaining a lot of traction- and it really does deserve it. It's a long road, but I'm feeling pretty good about it getting a Picture nom. I think it's gonna stick around and develop enough passion for that 8th spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
