The Panda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: DGA is definitely GDT/Nolan/McDonagh/Peele/Gerwig now with the chance of an upset from Baker. Can't see it going any other way. I’d think that’s what happens and Baker subs in for McDonagh at the Oscars, they usually miss one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, filmlover said: You at least concede that the movie's not winning Best Picture or Streep Best Actress (she's definitely 5th place there) now right? Of course 1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said: I’d think that’s what happens and Baker subs in for McDonagh at the Oscars, they usually miss one. I think DGA will go 5/5 this year. If someone gets snubbed, I feel it'll be Gerwig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Of course I think DGA will go 5/5 this year. If someone gets snubbed, I feel it'll be Gerwig. Gerwig’s Not getting snubbed. Not with how many precursors she’s hit (and McDonagh’s missed) and the fact it’s a year of woman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 17 hours ago, filmlover said: I actually think there's a very good chance The Post misses PGA as well. So far its performance has been faring far worse than Bridge of Spies. If it does miss, I think we can officially call it the Selma/Silence of 2017. With an extended 10 field? Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 PGA noms: The Big Sick Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk Get Out I, Tonya Lady Bird Molly's Game The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Wonder Woman Animated: The Boss Baby Coco Despicable Me 3 Ferdinand The LEGO Batman Movie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Bad news for Mudbound and Darkest Hour odds of making it in, good news for I, Tonya and maybe the Big Sick's chances, don't think there's much to Molly's Game or Wonder Woman getting in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) Basically good news for everything but The Florida Project (which always seemed 50/50 here), Darkest Hour, and Phantom Thread. I, Tonya and Molly's Game have been making a great showing the past few days, while The Big Sick will likely make the BP line-up if we end up with 9 nominees (which I'm beginning to think we will). Edited January 5, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Oh huh I just gazed over Florida Project not making it, hmm. I think it still shows up though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I, Tonya is riding a lot of buzz right now. I think it could sneak into picture for sure. Big statement incoming: if Margot Robbie beats Saorsie Ronan at the Globes, Best Picture is secured. The Big Sick still feels a little small. PGA helps, but the Golden Globe snub still haunts it. The only chance Darkest Hour has left is to do the following: continue its excellent box office haul, win Best Actor at the Globes, and secure many Bafta nominations. But those things don't do much unless the steak and potatoes crowd really goes head over heels for it. This is A24's que to focus almost entirely on Lady Bird for their campaigning now that The Florida Project missed this. That animated section is scaring me. And this only helps Molly's Game with the little amount of noms it can still possibly gather. Adapted Screenplay is locked if it wasn't already. And this has me crossing my fingers harder that Chastain somehow leaps over Streep at the eleventh hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Oh huh I just gazed over Florida Project not making it, hmm. I think it still shows up though. It missing here wasn't really to surprising IMO since it was probably too small (it won't even make $10M even if it gets nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars). Darkest Hour/Mudbound/Phantom Thread all missing here is definitely bad news for those movies. Call Me by Your Name and The Post should be at least safe now, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) If it wasn't for that Globe snub Big Sick has really shown up everywhere it needs to. I'll wait for BAFTA before making final predictions (don't think DGA illuminates much unless Baker makes it in). Edited January 5, 2018 by Cmasterclay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Quinn Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, filmlover said: PGA noms: The Big Sick Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk Get Out I, Tonya Lady Bird Molly's Game The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Wonder Woman Last year's PGA Awards had all the 89th Oscar nominees, along with Deadpool. It would be funny if history repeated itself, and everything minus Wonder Woman was nominated, though that seems pretty unlikely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The Big Sick’s hit DGA, PGA and WGA I think it’s getting in Post should also get in, but it’ll likely be the last spot or so and I’m going to say it doesn’t get a screenplay nod. Meryl should still get in for being meryl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I’m going to update my spreadsheet today for PGA, Eddie, Production Design, DGA and the rest of the critic circles. I’ll see how it turns out. I do reckon Florida Project is looking weaker now and Molly’s Game looks like a potential dark horse for a nom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The consensus 7 (Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards) are all pretty much safe now. The last 1-2-3 spots look to be any of (or any combo of) The Big Sick, The Florida Project, I Tonya, and Molly's Game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 55 minutes ago, filmlover said: PGA noms: The Big Sick Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk Get Out I, Tonya Lady Bird Molly's Game The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Wonder Woman Animated: The Boss Baby Coco Despicable Me 3 Ferdinand The LEGO Batman Movie I have not seen The Post or Molly’s Gamr but everything nominated for the PGA is a B+ or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, filmlover said: The consensus 7 (Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards) are all pretty much safe now. The last 1-2-3 spots look to be any of (or any combo of) The Big Sick, The Florida Project, I Tonya, and Molly's Game. I still wouldn’t say The Post is any safer than the Big Sick, as it missed WGA and SAG (whereas Big Sick only missed the Globes, which is inconsequential). Molly’s Game, I, Tonya and Florida Project are on the outside looking in. You can pretty much rule Phantom Thread out of contention beyond a DDL, score and costume nod now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: I still wouldn’t say The Post is any safer than the Big Sick, as it missed WGA and SAG (whereas Big Sick only missed the Globes, which is inconsequential). Molly’s Game, I, Tonya and Florida Project are on the outside looking in. You can pretty much rule Phantom Thread out of contention beyond a DDL, score and costume nod now. Yeah, Phantom Thread is definitely dead for a Best Picture nomination, and Darkest Hour is too with even a possible strong showing at BAFTA probably not being enough. Would be quite the turn of events if Chalamet starts sweeping the televised awards instead of Oldman; it's clear that the former is in a much stronger film in the race overall. Edited January 5, 2018 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, filmlover said: Yeah, Phantom Thread is definitely dead for a Best Picture nomination, and Darkest Hour is too with even a possible strong showing at BAFTA probably not being enough. Would be quite the turn of events if Chalamet starts sweeping the televised awards instead of Oldman; it's clear that the former is in a much stronger film in the race overall. We’ll see how the televised awards start going. Oldman’s currently the front runner imo, but the fact that Darkest Hour is a non-factor in everything else hurts his chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 the big sick get sudden push in the end, if it really get final nomination at oscar, 3 of the nominees, along with GO, and dunkirk will be from non-traditional autumn/winter release. wonder woman and logan are hurting each other this award season, if logan get WGA and PGA both, i would say logan could be a serious player, but now PGA and WGA are splitting their pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
