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ZeeSoh

Tuesday (6/12) #s: Coco - $2.49m, JL - $1.72m, Wonder - $1.39m, Thor - $1.02m, DH2 - $0.75m

By ZeeSoh, in Numbers and Data

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

 

Thank you for explanation. Your post is wonderful, and mine is shitty, because what i meant to say was that movies has to earn 3-3.5x it's budget to break even in cinemas before blueray, dvd, rental, tv. I think it's not possible to predict how much has to JL earn to break even because they will earn a lot of money thanks to merchandises. 

 

A movie would need to do considerably more than 3-3.5 it's budget to break even just in cinemas, depending what you include in the cost column here.

 

If you mean that formula  (I would imagine that something like this you have in mind):

 

(World Theater rental - Direct production budget - overhead - theatrical world release cost) >= 0, leaving away participation bonus to make it simpler.

 

If we take a total success movie that made 3.5 time it's budget and best scenario domestic heavy like Pinneaple express on the low budget example and Hancock on the giant movie example that was not domestic heavy.

 

 

PINEAPPLE EXPRESS

Box office: $101m

Budget: $28.8m

Ratio 3.5

 

Revenues from theater:

  • DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 43,521 
  • INTL THEATRICAL REVENUE 4,238 

World release Expense:

  •   DTH MARKETING (45,338)
  •   DTH PRINTS (COS) (7,236)
  •   DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (2,581)
  •   ITH MARKETING (7,387)
  •   ITH PRINTS (COS) (2,864
  •   ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (429)

 

Production and overhead:

 

  • DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (28,812)
  • OVERHEAD (2,360) 

 

Revenues: 47.759m

Expense: 97m (65.835 WW release, more than theatrical rental )

 

Still 50m in the red, it is rare for a small movie to do more from theater ticket than the cost to play a movie in theater, it is often more of a publicity for the other more lucrative windows, that is a bit of unfair to say because most of the marketing is spent at that moment and goes into that window cost, while that marketing around the release (reviews and all the talk) help all the future windows values also but you get the idea.

 

HANCOCK 

Box office: $624m

Budget: $166m

Ratio: 3.75

 

Revenue from theater:

DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 125,585

INTL THEATRICAL REVENUE 168,550 

 

World release Expense:

  •   DTH MARKETING (61,747)
  •   DTH PRINTS (COS) (11,109)
  •   DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (5,490) 
  •  ITH MARKETING (63,850) 
  •  ITH PRINTS (COS) (21,099) 
  •  ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (5,126)

 

Production and overheads:

  • DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (166,054)
  • OVERHEAD (14,110)

 

Revenues: $294.135m

Expenses: $348.58m (168.421m WW release),

Still 50m in the red. Would have needed around 740m to achieve that rare feat

 

And considering Will Smith and co. made a 113! million bonus on that movie, they had first dollar gross deal and the expense were over 400m at that point in reality.

 

It is extremely rare to ever do that and is not really a thing to break even in theater (we do a distinction from box office and other revenues sources pretty much because one has public numbers and not the others), movie like IT do this, but for many it will take 6 to 12 times their budget for small movies, and 4.35 to 5 time for big ones and only when we do not consider the participation bonus that will be often really big in those case and push away that BE point.

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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Johnny Tran Box Office Gold

Johnny Tran

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Jason Momoa, David Ayer and Zack Snyder did not get that memo

Only one of these men is still working within the DCEU and the guy who is now overseeing it,  Johns,  is real life friends with Feige over at Marvel and they want nothing but the best for each other.  

 

Were you unaware of this?  

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Johnny Tran Box Office Gold

Johnny Tran

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Has anyone from marvel ever said anything about anything dc-related ? Anyway JL bashing has become boring at this point. Happy about thor’s IW bump. About to pass Wonder Woman worldwide.

Yes,  many over at Marvel were praising Wonder Woman on Twitter and again Johns and Feige are real life friends.  Anyone on the outside who is invested in fan wars is...   well,  there's not really a nice word for it. They just lead a sad life is all. 

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weresweresweres Cult Classic

weresweresweres

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

A movie would need to do considerably more than 3-3.5 it's budget to break even just in cinemas, depending what you include in the cost column here.

 

If you mean that formula  (I would imagine that something like this you have in mind):

 

(World Theater rental - Direct production budget - overhead - theatrical world release cost) >= 0, leaving away participation bonus to make it simpler.

 

If we take a total success movie that made 3.5 time it's budget and best scenario domestic heavy like Pinneaple express on the low budget example and Hancock on the giant movie example that was not domestic heavy.

 

 

PINEAPPLE EXPRESS

Box office: $101m

Budget: $28.8m

Ratio 3.5

 

Revenues from theater:

  • DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 43,521 
  • INTL THEATRICAL REVENUE 4,238 

World release Expense:

  •   DTH MARKETING (45,338)
  •   DTH PRINTS (COS) (7,236)
  •   DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (2,581)
  •   ITH MARKETING (7,387)
  •   ITH PRINTS (COS) (2,864
  •   ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (429)

 

Production and overhead:

 

  • DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (28,812)
  • OVERHEAD (2,360) 

 

Revenues: 47.759m

Expense: 97m (65.835 WW release, more than theatrical rental )

 

Still 50m in the red, it is rare for a small movie to do more from theater ticket than the cost to play a movie in theater, it is often more of a publicity for the other more lucrative windows, that is a bit of unfair to say because most of the marketing is spent at that moment and goes into that window cost, while that marketing around the release (reviews and all the talk) help all the future windows values also but you get the idea.

 

HANCOCK 

Box office: $624m

Budget: $166m

Ratio: 3.75

 

Revenue from theater:

DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 125,585

INTL THEATRICAL REVENUE 168,550 

 

World release Expense:

  •   DTH MARKETING (61,747)
  •   DTH PRINTS (COS) (11,109)
  •   DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (5,490) 
  •  ITH MARKETING (63,850) 
  •  ITH PRINTS (COS) (21,099) 
  •  ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (5,126)

 

Production and overheads:

  • DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (166,054)
  • OVERHEAD (14,110)

 

Revenues: $294.135m

Expenses: $348.58m (168.421m WW release),

Still 50m in the red. Would have needed around 740m to achieve that rare feat

 

And considering Will Smith and co. made a 113! million bonus on that movie, they had first dollar gross deal and the expense were over 400m at that point in reality.

 

It is extremely rare to ever do that and is not really a thing to break even in theater (we do a distinction from box office and other revenues sources pretty much because one has public numbers and not the others), movie like IT do this, but for many it will take 6 to 12 times their budget for small movies, and 4.35 to 5 time for big ones and only when we do not consider the participation bonus that will be often really big in those case and push away that BE point.

 

 

Tkank you again.

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RamblinRed Box Office Gold

RamblinRed

Posted
Posted

Will be interesting to see the drops today.

Remember weekend drops this upcoming weekend should be very muted.

JL should do close to 10 (40% drop).

Coco should be somewhere in the 18.5-20 range.

 

Congrats to WB For getting to 5B WW.

Will be interesting to see if Disney can get to 6B WW by Dec 31. I think it is going to be close. They passed 5B last week. Realistically they can probably get at least 200 WW from Coco and Thor in December (Moana and DS made 135M DOM in December last year, don't know what the INtl total was). That would mean needing 800M from TLJ in December WW, that actually seems doable. 

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