Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[Taruseth]

16 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Ok, June 2022 after Avatar 3 finally makes less than $1m dollar daily we'll be able to agree.

A2 - Dec2020

A3 - Dec2021

 

A4 - Dec2024

A5 - Dec2025

That would be better legs than both Titanic and Avatar, so highly unlikely. I think it will drop below the $1M in February (If it is good maybe late February)

Avatars first day below 1M was the 8th March! 2010. Titanic's first day below was 30th March 1998 (the 102nd day!)

Unless Avatar 2 sucks, than well it will drop below that earlier.

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Taruseth

[meriodejaneiro]

10 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Isn't that this year?

 

 

True. My bad, my very bad.

Aquaman is 2018, but it still proves my point. We have been knowing from Aquaman for about a year and a half if not more. So a less than 2 years to start a big movie with a lot of cgi and all as J2 would be, it seems unlikely.

Edited January 7, 2018 by meriodejaneiro

[meriodejaneiro]

13 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I thought you wanted to typ US 

That was my problem:

 

 

No, it's my bad, fast typing and i start all with U ... US, UK, UE ... should have written EU. Will try to type it right in the future. 

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

So, for your standards and exigences and criticism with TLJ box office run ... I hope Avatar 2 makes 1B dom and some 3-4B ww. Otherwise it could be considered a failure, right? Because Avatar should have the potential of overgross in all ww markets since it's a huge brand. For every market A2 won't surpass A1's box office there will be someone here reminding you the failure it means for the brand, blah blah blah... 

I don't really understand how exactly my standards for TLJ mean I hope Avatar 2 makes 1B dom and 3-4ww, this is hyperbole right?  TLJ did underperform to expectations I don't think many will dispute that and if they do I'm not really interested in arguing against that any more.

 

As for Avatar, despite the way you got from A to B making zero sense, I would actually be disappointed if Avatar 2 makes less than $3b world wide.

 

[baumer]

42 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Where did I cherry pick markets it's doing not so well in?

Yep. Sorry. My bad. I apologize. I quoted the wrong person.

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I don't really understand how exactly my standards for TLJ mean I hope Avatar 2 makes 1B dom and 3-4ww, this is hyperbole right?  TLJ did underperform to expectations I don't think many will dispute that and if they do I'm not really interested in arguing against that any more.

 

As for Avatar, despite the way you got from A to B making zero sense, I would actually be disappointed if Avatar 2 makes less than $3b world wide.

 

To me, anything less than titanic WW for avatar 2 will be a disappointing success...

 

Many people just don't understand, "success" and "disappointment" can be coexist.   

[a2k]

Amazing that the combined global cume of the top 2 films this year, TLJ and BATB, won't beat Avatar's 2.7b+. BATB is ~1.26b and TLJ is looking at  ~1.35b for ~2.61b combined.

[meriodejaneiro]

22 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

That would be better legs than both Titanic and Avatar, so highly unlikely. I think it will drop below the $1M in February (If it is good maybe late February)

Avatars first day below 1M was the 8th March! 2010. Titanic's first day below was 30th March 1998 (the 102nd day!)

Unless Avatar 2 sucks, than well it will drop below that earlier.

 

I don't think A2 will make that extremely long run as A1 or Titanic made. Other studios will counter program with their movies (as Jumanji with TLJ) seen theres place for more than one blockbuster in Christmas, and also january is becoming a month to release  widely lot's of Oscar film contenders, and february/march are also becoming months for big releases (Marvel and Disney movies). I doubt Disney will renounce to it's february-Marvel and March-liveaction slots in 2021 and 2022 just because Avatar releases in Christmas. And now that Disney bought Fox, they will need find releasing dates for some more movies a year (and jan-feb-sep-oct seem the months where they could fit them).

 

If A2 make huge numbers dom it's due to a TFA-like mosntrous boxoffice during the first three weeks. TFA first under $1M daily was on the 46th day of run (feb 1st).

[George Parr]

11 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Amazing that the combined global cume of the top 2 films this year, TLJ and BATB, won't beat Avatar's 2.7b+. BATB is ~1.26b and TLJ is looking at  ~1.35b for ~2.61b combined.

Isn't that true for every year but 2015 though?

 

The closest one I can think of would be 2012, with The Avengers and Skyfall combining for around $2.625b, which is still over 150m short.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Isn't that true for every year but 2015 though?

 

The closest one I can think of would be 2012, with The Avengers and Skyfall combining for around $2.625b, which is still over 150m short.

Yes, though it keeps getting more impressive as one more year goes by where top 2 films combined fail to match Avatar. I think this could be the last year it happens. I feel AiW+FK should match it. In 2019 there are too many big films. 2020 there's Avatar2 itself.

[FantasticBeasts]

Sometimes it just feels hard to believe that Avatar truly did what it did. There are not enough adjectives to describe it's run.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Sometimes it just feels hard to believe that Avatar truly did what it did. There are not enough adjectives to describe it's run.

Tough to process it's BO. Avatar's OS (2027.5m) more or less matches TFA's WW (2068m).

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Sometimes it just feels hard to believe that Avatar truly did what it did. There are not enough adjectives to describe it's run.

especially when you realise that the highest grossing before avatar(excluding JC's own titanic) released was LOTR 3 with "just" 1.1b, avatar 2.8b was nearly triple of that

[FantasticBeasts]

It is also my favourite movie within the top 5 all time, so I won't complain at all.

[meriodejaneiro]

27 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Sometimes it just feels hard to believe that Avatar truly did what it did. There are not enough adjectives to describe it's run.

Without meaning to undervalue the astonishing Avatar run ... it benefited from a very favorable exchange rate. 

 

Could be interesting to calculate market by market what Avatar would have made intl. at 1997 $ rate (Titanic year) and at 2015 $ rate (TFA year). But that's a huge work and research. 

 

----

 

Even harder, because at 1997 Euro wasn't even there, so a big bunch of local currencies to check.

Edited January 7, 2018 by meriodejaneiro

[meriodejaneiro]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

especially when you realise that the highest grossing before avatar(excluding JC's own titanic) released was LOTR 3 with "just" 1.1b, avatar 2.8b was nearly triple of that

It's almost exactly x2.5 XD 

[titanic2187]

17 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Without meaning to undervalue the astonishing Avatar run ... it benefited from a very favorable exchange rate. 

 

Could be interesting to calculate market by market what Avatar would have made intl. at 1997 $ rate (Titanic year) and at 2015 $ rate (TFA year). But that's a huge work and research. 

 

----

 

Even harder, because at 1997 Euro wasn't even there, so a big bunch of local currencies to check.

someone did that before for sure, that will still put SW7< avatar, suggest that 3D ticket price bump is a bigger factor here to play

[FantasticBeasts]

18 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Without meaning to undervalue the astonishing Avatar run ... it benefited from a very favorable exchange rate. 

 

Could be interesting to calculate market by market what Avatar would have made intl. at 1997 $ rate (Titanic year) and at 2015 $ rate (TFA year). But that's a huge work and research. 

 

----

 

Even harder, because at 1997 Euro wasn't even there, so a big bunch of local currencies to check.

Titanic is probably more impresssive. I heard that it adjusts to $3b+ but you can never be sure. With TFA there really is no competition. Avatar is cofmortably ahead.

[IronJimbo]

27 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

It is also my favourite movie within the top 5 all time, so I won't complain at all.

you mean top 7 right?

[KP1025]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

someone did that before for sure, that will still put SW7< avatar, suggest that 3D ticket price bump is a bigger factor here to play

I remember seeing that chart, as well as one for TFA with 2010 exchange rates. Avatar was ahead in both, but I don't think it was adjusted for different ticket prices and market size though.