BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[JB33]

$25M previews? Jeebus! What are you guys thinking for the 3-day??

[Rebeccas]

IW is the highest viewed trailer of all time. the superbowl spot handily beat every other movie with almost no new footage. the reaching here is hilarious lol.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Rebeccas

[WrathOfHan]

Today at my theater:

 

Spoiler

 

Black Panther:

 

10:00 3D: 37/78 11

10:45: 44/78 10

11:30: 60/124 7

12:15 3D: 11/78 2

12:45: 11/69 4

1:15 3D: 18/78 2

2:00: 11/78 5

2:45: 36/124 2

3:30 3D: 3/78

4:00 3D: 2/69 2

4:30 3D: 19/78 3

5:15: 29/78 10

6:00: 106/124

6:45 3D: 19/78 2

7:15: 45/69 14

7:45 3D: 50/78 7

8:30: 54/78 15

9:15: 92/124 17

10:00 3D: 8/78 4

10:30 3D: 2/69 2

 

 

Fifty Shades:

 

10:00: 6/69

11:00: 8/78

1:30: 15/78

4:00: 4/78

7:00: 24/78

8:00: 20/113

9:30: 6/78

10:30: 0/113

 

15:17 to Paris:

 

11:45: 9/78

2:15: 16/78

4:45: 0/78

7:15: 2/78

9:50: 0/78

 

Peter Rabbit:

 

10:15: 3/113

11:30: 9/78

12:40: 6/113

3:10: 0/113

4:35: 2/78

5:35: 0/113

6:30: 2/78

9:00: 0/78

 

Jumanji:

 

10:05: 2/60

12:55 3D: 0/60

3:45: 2/60

6:40 3D: 0/60

9:30: 4/60

 

Early Man:

 

10:30: 2/63

12:45: 0/63

3:00: 0/63

5:15: 0/63

7:30: 7/63

9:45: 0/63

 

Showman:

 

10:35: 7/67

4:20: 0/67

 

Winchester:

 

2:00: 0/78

6:55: 2/67

 

Maze Runner:

 

1:10: 2/67

9:30: 0/67

 

 

 

Black Panther: 657/1,708 (Up 119)

Fifty Shades: 83/685 (Up 17) (-75% from last week)

15:17 to Paris: 27/390 (Up 5) (-66% from last week)

Peter Rabbit: 22/764 (Up 5) (-77% from last week)

Early Man: 9/378 (Up 4)

Jumanji: 8/300 (Up 2) (+800% from last week)

Showman: 7/134 (Up 4) (-30% from last week)

Winchester: 2/145 (Flat from last week)

Maze Runner: 2/134 (-66% from last week)

 

Black Panther is running at 163% of Ragnarok (200M) and 214% of JL (200.7M).

Edited February 16, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Lordmandeep]

In my opinion just because some casual audiences from BP won't watch IW does not mean IW will have no appeal to the casual audience at all.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[YM!]

My Panther vs IW early predictions:

Panther: $180M/$210M/$480M/$1B

IW: $215M/$450M/$1.5B

[MCKillswitch123]

Can we all just agree that both Black Panther and Infinity War will be big hits and Kevin Feige is laughing all the way to the bank w/both of them?

 

Ant-Man 2 could make exactly zero bucks and I bet that the combined returns of BP and IW would cover the loss up either way. Possibly just the returns of BP alone. THAT is a mark of success.

Edited February 16, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Rebeccas]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

In my opinion just because some casual audiences from BP won't watch IW does not mean IW will have no appeal to the casual audience at all.

 

 

Right like I'm not saying its guaranteed to make $600m but to put it below GOTG2 is just ludicrous.

[robertman2]

Spicy take

 

I think the dom takes for IW and Bp will be pretty close. Like, 20M or so within each other. Leaning towards IW being a bit higher grossing right now, but I feel like it could go either way.

[YM!]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

In my opinion just because some casual audiences from BP won't watch IW does not mean IW will have no appeal to the casual audience at all.

 

 

 

 

Hypothetically speaking, IW can turn off some of the GA depending on how much of the MCU you know. And even then with Deadpool 2 and Solo back to back is going to hurt it legs.

 

Still IW should have a $200M OW locked but legs will be poor because of those reasons.

[eXtacy]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Well I guess the point is that we would have already saw AoU and Civil War, which we already have numbers on, and we already know what the audience is, whereas Black Panther is attracting an audience who didn't see those movies. 

If it were the same characters as Ultron that would be a good baseline but theres such a huge increase. It only requires a person to like one of the new characters additions to see it.

 

Lets say baseline of 175m opening without new characters for Infinity War

 

BP +20m

GOTG +15m

Spidey + 10m

Dr Str + 5m

Antman + 2.5m

 

227.5m. 

 

All these small new additions add up, none are unreasonable

[Cmasterclay]

I don't know I'm kinda getting confused by the track of what we're arguing my point is that Black Panther is outgrossing Infinity War domestically and that's all I care about. 

[Rebeccas]

Even if a small portion of BP's "new" audience shows up to IW just to see BP again, that's enough to put IW way beyond GOTG2.

[mattie08]

I think BP and IW are feeding into each other. Yes, there's a big chunk of the BP crowd that will not see IW, but really, the idea that it will have no impact or a negligible impact doesn't really make sense to me. Will my mother, who is happily seeing BP with us on Sunday (and hasn't shown independent interest in any comic book movie since maybe Batman 89 and hasn't even allowed herself to be dragged to any comic book movie by her comic book-loving family in five years) going to see IW? Probably not. But my sister, who maybe hasn't seen a comic book movie in theaters since...Ultron?...she'll be there, after being drawn out for BP. A decent minority portion of an audience as big as BP's looks to be is notable, even for an audience as big as IW's is anyway. The fact that Wakanda and BP have already been majorly highlighted for IW (with Cap, BW, WS, and others) is no small thing.

Edited February 16, 2018 by mattie08

[Rebeccas]

I almost feel like IW will benefit from BP the same way Alice in Wonderland benefited from the Avatar 3D effect. They're so close together and people will be incredibly hyped to see Wakanda again after BP, there's not even enough time for people to cool down from the excitement.

[eXtacy]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

I almost feel like IW will benefit from BP the same way Alice in Wonderland benefited from the Avatar 3D effect. They're so close together and people will be incredibly hyped to see Wakanda again after BP, there's not even enough time for people to cool down from the excitement.

 

Yeah just watch to see how much Black Panther/Wakanda will be in the Infinity War trailer 2 in a few weeks. Disney will take huge advantage of this.

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Coming from some external info (I can’t think of the word or saying to replace external info but there’s a better one), I can guarantee my mother who is excited for Panther won’t be seeing IW. I won’t be too surprised if the audience you guys think is coming for IW won’t come.

Not everyone of course but a large chunk of those who felt impacted by BP.

[YM!]

All this Panther talk and I’m wondering why my Samson numbers at and more importantly where my Early Man numbers at.

[Lordmandeep]

I do agree that IW will seem like a typical superhero team movie to some but I think Disney has been successful in the 'it leads to this' or that all of the movies have built up to this moment.

 

I dont think it will be a big boost but I think that can increase interest by 5-10% from the civil war you have a movie that will make anywhere from 435-455 million domestically. 

[Rebeccas]

For every person who only shows up to BP and nothing else, there's also someone who likes the Guardians/space stuff primarily and will show up for that.

[XO21]

What a pointless debate....