Which will be the 57th-70th $100+ million DOM OW's AND the 40th-50th 1B WW makers?

[Legion Again]

Optimistic fanboy goggles, ENGAGE!    

 

100M+ OW, 56th-60th:  

Ant-Man and the Wasp   

Captain Marvel   

Godzilla 2   

Avengers:IW 

Aladdin

[MovieMan89]

11 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Dragon 2

Madagascar 2

Both of those opened bigger than the first. Kung Fu Panda 2 is probably the only one that didn't, and as said it was a 5 day opening so not entirely a fair comparison. 

 

SLOP2 will very likely have a Shrek 3/Minions run. Something like 120/340. Multi will be bad even if reception is good because TS4 hits a couple weeks later, and TLK in July will cut off any late legs. 

[MovieMan89]

10 hours ago, KP1025 said:

SLOP already had such a massive opening for an original animation that I think it will be hard for a sequel to match it with less hype. Sequels to original animated films do indeed typically increase, but we've not had an exact case like SLOP so far. You can argue that Finding Dory out-opened Finding Nemo adjusted ($107 million), but that was the sequel to one of the most highly acclaimed and beloved films of all-time and it had a 13-year gap after the original. The same reasoning can also be applied to Incredibles 2, which will likely increase from the adjusted OW ($104 million) of the first film. 

Shrek 3 is a good parallel for SLOP2, imo. Shrek 2 posted a massive 100+ opening and got great WOM. Shrek 3 didn't need years of inflation and nostalgia to open even higher. Think it will be the same for SLOP 2. Where TS3, Dory and Incredibles 2 had nostalgia in their corner, SLOP2 will have more current relevancy with today's kids in its corner, which tends to be even more beneficial for animation than any amount of adult appeal. 

Edited February 22, 2018 by MovieMan89

[MCKillswitch123]

14 hours ago, Sliver Legion said:

Optimistic fanboy goggles, ENGAGE!    

 

100M+ OW, 56th-60th:  

Ant-Man and the Wasp   

Captain Marvel   

Godzilla 2   

Avengers:IW 

Aladdin

I know that you specified how you're wearing optimistic fanboy goggles here, but....... I wouldn't really count on Ant-Man 2 opening that huge. Panther and Infinity could drive the MCU hype enormously huge, but if I were Kevin Feige, I'd be happy if AM2 has a Thor 2-type increase on OW and ends up w/a Doctor Strange total.

[Avatree]

5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Shrek 3 is a good parallel for SLOP2, imo. Shrek 2 posted a massive 100+ opening and got great WOM. Shrek 3 didn't need years of inflation and nostalgia to open even higher. Think it will be the same for SLOP 2. Where TS3, Dory and Incredibles 2 had nostalgia in their corner, SLOP2 will have more current relevancy with today's kids in its corner, which tends to be even more beneficial for animation than any amount of adult appeal. 

to suggest Secret Life of Pets has the same level of reception as Shrek is just ridiculous. adjust the ticket prices, Pets is just under 400M, Shrek 2 is 650M. Shrek is just another level. It's like comparing Hunger Games to Avengers.

 

You are correct that the majority of animated films have bigger OWs in the sequel but that's just less likely at higher openings. If a film starts off with a dampened OW then it gets watched and rewatched, then the sequel comes out and the OW is bigger - that makes sense. But when it already starts with a huge opening, it is less likely to increase.

 

If you look at animated films that opened above 80M adjusted:

 

Madagascar 2 - 80M, 2.85x

Madagascar 3 - 68M

 

Cars - 84M, 4.07x

Cars 2 - 75M

 

Alvin 2 - 91M, 2.85x / 3-day 59M, 4.41x

Alvin 3 - 27M

 

Ice Age 2 - 95M, 2.87x

Ice Age 3 - 82M / 3-day 51M

 

Monsters Inc - 101M, 4.08x

Monsters Uni - 90M

 

Finding Nemo - 107M, 4.83x

Finding Dory - 142M

 

Despicable Me 2 - 168M, 2.57x / 3-day 98M, 4.41x

Minions - 129M

 

Minions - 129M, 2.9x

Despicable Me 3 - 74M

 

Shrek 2 - 191M, 3.42x / 3-day 160M, 4.08x

Shrek 3 - 162M

 

Shrek 3 - 162M, 2.65x

Shrek 4 - 83M

 

 

That's all the ones I can find, and every single one of them, with the exception of Finding Nemo, decreased in OW in the sequel.

[meriodejaneiro]

#51 Avengers: Infinity War _ 215M

#52 Deadpool 2 _ 115M

#53 Solo: A Star Wars Story _ 155M (3day) 175M (4day)

#54 The Incredibles 2 _ 135M

#55 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom _ 140M

 

I think it's gonna be a full Disney company adding to the list. Not because i don't see any potential film from other studios, but because i see the Disney movies' schedule makes a clearer path for success. I could see SLOP2 and Grinch making it if they had the weekend for themselves, but SLOP2 shares ow with Charlie's Angels and Gambit. And Grinch opens on 2nd weekend of Dark Phoenix and The Nutcracker. And I personally think The Nutcracker is gonna make good money. Even it could be a 100.1M-sharp opener if it weren't for Dark Phoenix. 

 

So I see several 90M+ openers between JW2 and CM.

 

#56 Captain Marvel _ 120M

#57 Dumbo _ 115M (Disney, beloved Dumbo, Tim Burton ... it can make TJB #s easily) 

#58 Avengers 4 _ 210M

#59 Aladdin _ 175M (3day) 195m (4day)

#60 Toy Story 4 _ 144M 

 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

#51 Avengers: Infinity War _ 215M

#52 Deadpool 2 _ 115M

#53 Solo: A Star Wars Story _ 155M (3day) 175M (4day)

#54 The Incredibles 2 _ 135M

#55 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom _ 140M

 

I think it's gonna be a full Disney company adding to the list. Not because i don't see any potential film from other studios, but because i see the Disney movies' schedule makes a clearer path for success. I could see SLOP2 and Grinch making it if they had the weekend for themselves, but SLOP2 shares ow with Charlie's Angels and Gambit. And Grinch opens on 2nd weekend of Dark Phoenix and The Nutcracker. And I personally think The Nutcracker is gonna make good money. Even it could be a 100.1M-sharp opener if it weren't for Dark Phoenix. 

 

So I see several 90M+ openers between JW2 and CM.

 

#56 Captain Marvel _ 120M

#57 Dumbo _ 115M (Disney, beloved Dumbo, Tim Burton ... it can make TJB #s easily) 

#58 Avengers 4 _ 210M

#59 Aladdin _ 175M (3day) 195m (4day)

#60 Toy Story 4 _ 144M 

 

There’s some much overestimation. 

[meriodejaneiro]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

There’s some much overestimation. 

Think positive my friend!

[MovieMan89]

16 hours ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

to suggest Secret Life of Pets has the same level of reception as Shrek is just ridiculous. adjust the ticket prices, Pets is just under 400M, Shrek 2 is 650M. Shrek is just another level. It's like comparing Hunger Games to Avengers.

 

You are correct that the majority of animated films have bigger OWs in the sequel but that's just less likely at higher openings. If a film starts off with a dampened OW then it gets watched and rewatched, then the sequel comes out and the OW is bigger - that makes sense. But when it already starts with a huge opening, it is less likely to increase.

 

If you look at animated films that opened above 80M adjusted:

 

Madagascar 2 - 80M, 2.85x

Madagascar 3 - 68M

 

Cars - 84M, 4.07x

Cars 2 - 75M

 

Alvin 2 - 91M, 2.85x / 3-day 59M, 4.41x

Alvin 3 - 27M

 

Ice Age 2 - 95M, 2.87x

Ice Age 3 - 82M / 3-day 51M

 

Monsters Inc - 101M, 4.08x

Monsters Uni - 90M

 

Finding Nemo - 107M, 4.83x

Finding Dory - 142M

 

Despicable Me 2 - 168M, 2.57x / 3-day 98M, 4.41x

Minions - 129M

 

Minions - 129M, 2.9x

Despicable Me 3 - 74M

 

Shrek 2 - 191M, 3.42x / 3-day 160M, 4.08x

Shrek 3 - 162M

 

Shrek 3 - 162M, 2.65x

Shrek 4 - 83M

 

 

That's all the ones I can find, and every single one of them, with the exception of Finding Nemo, decreased in OW in the sequel.

Ok, if Shrek 3 isn't a good comparison, then Minions definitely is. That beat DM2's already huge opening because it was coming off of a well liked predecessor. Condsidering how big SLOP was and how good the multi was, it would be stranger for it to drop much on OW than it would to beat the first on OW. SLOP 2 being a first sequel only helps its case further, there's no reason to expect the franchise has worn out any kind of welcome yet and the 3 year gap is in the right range to still attract most of the younger audience who saw the first. Also, why are we bringing inflation into this? SLOP2 doesn't have to even beat SLOP's adjusted or unadjusted OW to hit 100+.

[YM!]

56. Aquaman

57. Captain Marvel

58. Endgame

59. Detective Pikachu 

60. Far From Home 

Edited December 9, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[YM!]

33. Black Panther

34. Avengers: Infinity War

35. The Incredibles 2

36. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

37. Aquaman

38. Avengers: Endgame

39. Detective Pikachu 

40. Lion King

[MrFanaticGuy34]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

33. Black Panther

34. Avengers: Infinity War

35. The Incredibles 2

36. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

37. Aquaman

38. Avengers: Endgame

39. Detective Pikachu 

40. Lion King

Definitely no bad choices there.

 

Detective Pikachu just needs to breakout massively in China+OS in order to get the $1B-ticket with great WOM. Coexist with Avengers: Endgame the same way Jumanji 2 coexisted with Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

Edited December 9, 2018 by MrFanaticGuy34

[YM!]

Bump:

55. Captain Marvel

56. Endgame

57. Detective Pikachu

58. Toy Story 4

59. Far From Home

60. The Lion King

 

38. Captain Marvel

39. Endgame

40. Detective Pikachu 

[Legion Again]

38 Captain Marvel  

39 Bohemian Rhapsody 

40 Endgame

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

38 Captain Marvel  

39 Bohemian Rhapsody 

40 Endgame

I’m curious about how it’ll do in China.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m curious about how it’ll do in China.

Seriously I’d be shocked if it made enough, but it’s already shocked me plenty, so 🤷‍♂️

[DAJK]

What? BR is getting a China release?

 

Doubt it'll make more than 15M there

[Kalo]

 

55. Captain Marvel $160m

(Shazam! opening to $100m, isn't out of the question, but it's had pretty light marekting for a SH movie, and it is between CM and EG, should still do very well in it's own right though, $65-$75m ow)

56. Endgame $280m

57. Detective Pikachu $120m

(Aladdin will probably do $80-$90m 3DO, don't think TS4 will hit $100m, $90m maybe)

59. Far From Home $135m

60. The Lion King $250m

(Hobs and Shaw will probably open to $75-$85m)

 

61.It: Chapter 2 $115m

(I Don't think Joker will open to $100m, but it is possible. I'll say $75-$85m for now)

62.Frozen II $120m

(Jumanji 3 might hit $100m OW, but that's hard to pull off in Dec, especially with Ep IX opening next week, I'll say $90m)

63. Star Wars: Episode IX $190m

64. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $100m

65. Mulan $110m 

 

(Shatterhand aka Bond 25, will none of the others opened to $100m. think $85m for now)

66. Black Widow (if that is indeed the May 1st date) $125m

(Fast & Furious 9, F8. just missed it, and it was coming off of the huge opening of F7, see this declining even more, $75-$85m)

67.Wonder Woman 1984 $160m

(Minions 2, Minions fade is dying down, first film wasn't very well liked, probably open to $75-$85m, untitled Chris Nolan film, while his films open big I don't think it will hit $100m OW, unless it is Inception 2 or something) 

68.The Eternals $100m (every P3 marvel film opened over $100m expect for DS and AM&TW), this will probably hit that number 

(Dune might open to $100m, but I see this as a leggy hit probably opening in the $75-$85m range)

69. Avatar 2 $125m (Regardless of how much it drops from Avatar, I think curiosity alone, should at least be enough to propel the long awaited sequel to $100m+ ow)

70.Untitled Marvel II (It's February 2021, release suggests it's probably Black Panther 2, it could be DS 2, both of which should open over $100m)

 

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by Kalo

[MCKillswitch123]

Well, it's hilarious how I skipped to 56th-60th OW's in the OP when I assumed Solo would do it. Those of us who predicted The Grinch were insanely wrong, and I doubt Aladdin and SLOP 2 will get there either. I'd still give Aladdin a minor, minor chance, but it's looking highly likely at Solo numbers at this point. And LOOOOL at my 180-200 for Endgame (nearly doubled that low end). Regardless, we did get:

• 51 - Avengers: Infinity War
• 52 - Deadpool 2
• 53 - Incredibles 2
• 54 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
• 55 - Captain Marvel
• 56 - Avengers: Endgame

As for the billion predicts, we got:

• 33 - Black Panther
• 34 - Avengers: Infinity War
• 35 - Incredibles 2
• 36 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
• 37 - Aquaman
• 38 - Captain Marvel
• 39 - Avengers: Endgame

Don't think a lot of us saw Aquaman and CM coming, to say the least   

 

With only one to go before 40 in the billions, and with the OW predicts close enough to 60, I'm updating the title for 57-70 100M DOM OW's and 40-50 1B WW hits. Here are my predictions:

 

OW's:

• 57 - Toy Story 4 - I said in my OP that I didn't believe in this hitting 100+ OW. Right now, I'm still a bit 50/50 on it, but you know the drill: never bet against Pixar. Unless there's Cars in the title. And even then, Cars 3 still grossed more than it would have if it had been released by any other studio. But with TS4, reality is that the buzz does happen to exist, and TS3 was insanely successful in every way.... and a perfect ending to the trilogy, BUT if the wom does blow up on TS4, 100 should be doable for it. Family competition will be tough, with Aladdin, SLOP 2 and Pikachu all playing, but the big brand can overcome all obstacles in its path.
• 58 - Spider-Man: Far From Home (3-day) - This isn't an easy feat to pull off for a 6-day opener, but I'm going all in on this one. Hype will likely be ginormous after Endgame, for which this is basically a direct sequel. And we've seen non-3-day openers hit 100 or close to it, like Shrek 2 and Transformers 2/3 (ignoring the Puerto Rico debacle for Revenge Of The Fallen).
• 59 - The Lion King - No shit, Sherlock. For the record, I was the 1st one to predict 200M OW for this thing.
• 60 - It: Chapter 2 - Another obvious one. Even though it will likely drop from the 1st one, I don't see it dipping below 100, especially with, yet again, enormous buzz after a great trailer. Hopefully the wom is good, though, because the 2nd half of the book is the less beloved one by a well reasoned long shot.
• 61 - Joker - This is a bit of a gamble, but whatever. It has massive hype, with a spectacular teaser trailer and the promise of a deep, intense look at one of pop culture's most iconic villains. And last year, Venom topped 80M, and Venom is a far less popular character than the Joker. Don't see how this can't happen, even if the movie is decidedly not what you'd call a crowdpleaser.
• 62 - Frozen II - I have a 200M OW club open for this, and I'm still all for it. One of the greatest trailers for an animated movie in history re-awakened interest in this franchise to the point where this is a monster awaiting to happen.
• 63 - Star Wars: Episode IX, The Rise Of Skywalker - All the negativity surrounding Star Wars will not prevent this from going below 100M OW ever. And while, yeah, a lot of us thought that about Solo too and turned out to be hugely wrong, the episodic films are still kind of a big deal, especially since this is, apparently, the conclusion of the entire Skywalker saga. JJ returning will get the fanboys pissed at TLJ a little more tame. And Palpatine certainly garnered a lot of interest.
• 64 - Birds Of Prey - Another DC gamble. This one's based on a couple of factors playing in its favor. Suicide Squad was hated, but Margot Robbie's Harley Quinn was beloved. This will also benefit from being the 1st big blockbuster post-Rise Of Skywalker, and the 1st ever all-female superhero team-up movie. The little test video seemed to build up a lot of buzz in the interwebz. And Joker in October, albeit not connected to it, could also help the notorierity of this, given the obvious link between Joker and Harley.
• 65 - Godzilla Vs. Kong - While Godzilla: King Of The Monsters is looking at Kong: Skull Island's 60M range according to tracking, the 2014 movie hit over 90M and only didn't reach further more because bad wom spread out quickly. KOTM will probably revert that bad wom as it will be a true kaiju Royal Rumble unlike anything ever done before in North America, and the good buzz will allow hype to build for Godzilla's next adventure. Which just happens to be a fight against King Kong. It's Godzilla versus King Kong. That's a title that makes the GA jizz their collective pants on its own. While it may not top KOTM in sheer scale, the awareness of this movie will be insanely high, especially since it's one of WB's few major blockbusters for 2020.
• 66 - Wonder Woman 1984 - This one's self-explanatory. By the way, for those wondering "what about Black Widow???", I feel like the events of Endgame foreshadowed that the Black Widow movie will not be anywhere near relevant enough in the long scheme of things that it will see more than, say, Doctor Strange numbers. However, if the plot of the film is directly tied to the future of the MCU in some capacity, I will bump my expectations up for BW.
• 67 - Venom 2 - With the 1st one being enormously successful and actually liked by the audience, I'd be shocked if this doesn't see an increase on OW. 100 is still 20M more than the 1st movie's opening, but it's hardly unachievable, especially if Sony go guns ablazing with the marketing for this.
• 68 - The Eternals - Yet another big time gamble, this time on Marvel's side of things. Eternals, similarly to Black Widow, will probably suffer from prequelitis, which gives me Ant-Man And The Wasp-vibes. However, audiences adore the Marvel cosmic adventures, the cast for this has been incredible - including Angelina fuckin' Jolie of all people - and this will likely get big cultural exposure for the 1st ever LGBT lead in a superhero movie. And it may also feature Thanos, which could boost audience interest alas Darth Vader in Rogue One. With good marketing as both a big cosmic epic and a culturally relevant film, this could blow past the 100 mark.
• 69 - February 2021 MCU movie (Shang-Chi?) - From here on out, it's a total gamble because 2021 is two years away. But, while a February MCU movie may seem like Black Panther 2, Shang-Chi seems way more advanced in production, and with February proving to be a hugely bankable month for superhero movies, given the sucess of Deadpool and Black Panther, I feel like Disney will take advantage of the spot to launch this character, that will yet again attract major cultural attention due to what I presume will be an Asian-mostly cast. Similarly to how Get Out was a little preview of Black Panther, we all saw what Crazy Rich Asians did last year, so prepare yourselves for Shang-Chi. This will also benefit from the total lack of competition from the looks of it so far, as the Holidays of 2020 don't seem anything remotely competitive so far and Eternals would be the last blockbuster before this. Panther 2 will likely come out in February 2022 instead.
• 70 - May 2021 MCU movie (Doctor Strange 2?) - Doctor Strange 2 is also presumably quite in advance when it comes to production. And the original came out in 2016, so it makes more sense to have Strange's sequel before that of other Phase 4 main characters. And this will see a HUGE increase in interest after the character's absolutely star-making showing in Infinity War. 'Nuff said.

As for the billion dollar predicts:

• 40 - The Secret Life Of Pets 2 - I'm going on the completely opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to WW success vs. DOM success between the Illumination and Pixar blockbusters of this Summer. Pets 2 may not seem like that big of a deal right now, and surely it has to drop from the incredible DOM run of the original. However, it doesn't need to do SLOP 1 DOM numbers to hit a billion. The original made 870+ WW, and that was as an original property with untapped potential. All Pets 2 needs is a substantial OS increase - and given how huge the 1st one already was OS, + Illumination being generally successful OS - and it gets there, even with a DOM drop. Despicable Me 3-type numbers wouldn't surprise me whatsoever. Toy Story 4, meanwhile.... I dunno. I feel like this will top out at 850-900M WW. Don't think that it will do any better OS than Finding Dory did, and that managed to hit a billion because it did nearly 500 DOM, which I certainly don't see TS4 doing either.
• 41 - Spider-Man: Far From Home - I'd be more shocked if this doesn't hit 1B than if it does at this point. Sure, no Spider-Man solo movie has done it yet and Lion King + Hobbs And Shaw will be tough competition, but this has the goodwill of Homecoming, the insane WW (both DOM + OS) popularity of the MCU and the connections to Endgame all tied up. Ant-Man And The Wasp was promoted as a direct Ant-Man sequel with no ties to Infinity War. This is a Spider-Man movie, which in of itself is already a bigger deal than Ant-Man, and it IS a sequel to what will likely end up being the highest grossing movie of all time WW. So yeah. And if Captain Marvel could ride Endgame's coattails to 1.1B, FFH seems like a good given at this point.
• 42 - The Lion King - Same as the 1st line from the paragraph above. It's The motherfucking Lion King. Disney's crown jewel of animation. Alice hit a billion, BATB hit a billion, Jungle Book came close to a billion, and guess what? Neither of these hold a candle to TLK's popularity. It hit nearly 800M WW unadjusted for inflation in 1994, and its 3D re-release was an absolute monster smash. This will blow away expectations.
• 43 - Fast And Furious Presents: Hobbs And Shaw - Spin-offs are always hard to guess where they can go. But this one seems like a good guess to hit gigantic business. These two, while not necessarily the center characters of the Fast And Furious series, are generally highlights of the respective entries they are a part of. The Rock and Jason Statham, on their own, are two of the biggest action stars in the world. And this movie looks like a crazy 90's dumb awesome action film, made exactly the way that the franchise has garnered attention for being. And the last two F&F movies hit over 1B OS alone. These are absolute monster events globally, and while Hobbs And Shaw will likely drop from Fast 8, 1B WW still seems pretty safe.
• 44 - Frozen II - Duh.
• 45 - Star Wars: Episode IX, The Rise Of Skywalker - I'm sure some may feel like this is no guarantee. And in all honesty, I kinda have to agree, because it is definitely going from The Last Jedi when it comes to OS. However, I do feel like DOM will increase and offshoot the OS drop, so it will end over a billion all the same. On the 2019 Holidays note, Jumanji 3 also has a small shot at pulling 1B off as well, but right now, I'm betting against it.
• 46 - Godzilla Vs. Kong - Yup, I'm betting big on the monster mash. Both the disliked 2014 Godzilla and the small opening but strongly leggy Skull Island topped 500M WW, and King Of The Monsters could be a 600-800 range hit with a massive OS intake and strong legs likely incoming. I'm banking on a billion for the Main Event fight. It's just too huge of an event to miss in theaters. It could be Batman V Superman all over again if Adam Wingard doesn't hold his own, granted, but all the movie needs to do is give audiences some nice monster mashing and a billion is a done deal. Even with some tough competition ahead of it. The Mulan remake is another March 2020 contender, depending on how huge it is OS. Hell, it basically needs 250+ China and then Maleficent numbers everywhere else to make it. But Mulan is a big 50/50 shot right now, because it entirely depends on China liking it to get there, and apparently, the main lead is not exactly a big draw over there.
• 47 - Bond 25 - Its April release date is quite tricky, but it hasn't impeded the likes of Fast And Furious and Jungle Book to be enormous. And I feel like this movie kinda has huge pressure on it to be a slam dunk, given how it will likely be Craig's actual final performance as James Bond. With Cary Fukunaga on the directing gig, it can definitely be good. If it is good, it has potential to even beat Skyfall and top the 2020 year WW.
• 48 - Fast And Furious 9 - While it perhaps would be wiser to wait until some semblance of plot and trailers are out to see if people are ready to eat up another F&F movie less than a year after the release of Hobbs And Shaw, these movies just don't seem to *ahem* slow down at any point. With John Cena in the cast and Justin Lin - who helmed the much beloved 5th and 6th entries - returning to direct, I feel like it will definitely be, yet again, another gigantic OS event that overshadows whatever lesser holds it has DOM. Although this is no lock or given, considering it does have strong competition and potential franchise fatigue in its wake.
• 49 - Wonder Woman 1984 - While Wonder Woman wasn't all that big OS (it was its DOM run that carried it to its impressive 800+ WW haul), the sequel is all but a given to increase and I think it will have healthy enough increases to get through 1B. May not blow through the mark like Captain Marvel or Aquaman did, but get there at all? Sure.
• 50 - Venom 2 - With the remaining Summer and early Fall of 2020 being a total question mark at this point, this is the next big contender. And again, the 1st one topped 850M WW against all odds, including hitting 300M in China. If it increases DOM and non-China OS from the 1st one, a billion is quite in easy reach. And I think it'll pull it off, especially since November and December 2020 will lack in competition (apart from The Eternals).

[kitik]

While still technically possible, I think a 100M weekend is going to be really tough for FFH.

 

I know a lot of folks are hoping for an opening 6-day of 200M, but that probably wouldn't be enough. Movies are just getting more and more frontloaded these days. So when you look at those other early July openings for Transformers or Spider-Man, assume the opening weekdays/weekend split will be even worse. It would need a 6-day more in the range of 225 or even possibly 240-250 to guarantee a 100M weekend.

 

That said, if you're fully aboard the hype train and think it's going to blast past 400 and possibly challenge 500, then a 100M weekend is definitely believable.

 

I'm going to guess 90s though, because that opening Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday is going to combine to well over 100, and that'll burn off a lot of the OW demand.