Which will be the 57th-70th $100+ million DOM OW's AND the 40th-50th 1B WW makers?

[MCKillswitch123]

1 billion WW stuff:

 

33. Black Panther

34. Avengers: Infinity War

35. The Incredibles 2

36. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

37. Avengers 4

38. The Secret Life Of Pets 2

39. The Lion King

40. Frozen 2

 

I would argue getting a Chinese movie in there, but the thing is that even Wolf Warrior 2-sized breakouts suffer from the fact that Chinese blockbusters aren't given great exportation treatments. They usually make around 5-10M tops OS. Unless one of them outgrosses Force Awakens DOM and reaches like 995M in China alone, I don't see them hit 1B anytime soon.

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 has a shot, but I think that the DOM increase won't be substantial enough to get it past 1B. Same for Aladdin and Wonder Woman 2, but that's towards the OS gross rather than DOM. Toy Story 4 will top out at 850-900M WW and that's w/some luck.

 

To argue in favor of my choices:

• Panther, Avengers 3/4, Jurassic World 2, TLK and Frozen 2 are no-brainers.
• Incredibles 2 I think won't outgross Dory DOM (although looking at a 400+ result), but will do better OS due to the appeal of a big superhero brand w/the Pixar brand behind it. The DOM/OS grosses will be just enough to push it past 1B.
• SLOP 2, again, I think will have a decent hold from the 1st one DOM; and it's gonna take a bump OS. Illumination movies tend to have very strong OS grosses, and the 1st one made over 500M OS. W/an aggressive marketing campaign, I could easily see this one increasing to 600-700M OS and probably at 1.01-1.02B.

[Eric Duncan]

8 hours ago, That One Guy said:

@CoolEric258 OMG  

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

 

 

You disappoint me.

 

 

 

I like Harry Potter, but I also like to enjoy getting a rise out of dcasey lmao

[KP1025]

My choices for the next eight $1 billion+ films:

 

33. Black Panther

34. Avengers: Infinity War

35. The Incredibles 2

36. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

37. Avengers 4

38. Aladdin

39. The Lion King

40. Frozen 2

 

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by KP1025

[MovieMan89]

I see Solo doing in the 90's for OW because of the 4 day weekend, and I'd say Incredibles probably has about a 25% chance to miss too, since 100+ openings for animation are still such a high benchmark. It doesn't seem like anything this year after JW is going to do it, aside from maybe The Nun being the next It in September or Sony getting their shit together with the Venom marketing and that getting great reception. Illumination could work their marketing magic with The Grinch, however I think that movie's gross will be far too spread over the holiday season for a 100+ OW. My guess:

 

51. Infinity War

52. Deadpool 2

53. The Incredibles 2

54. Jurassic World 2

55. Silver and Black (taking a gamble here after BP)

56. Captain Marvel

57. Shazam

58. Avengers 4

59. Aladdin

60. The Secret Life of Pets 2

 

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I see Solo doing in the 90's for OW because of the 4 day weekend, and I'd say Incredibles probably has about a 25% chance to miss too, since 100+ openings for animation are still such a high benchmark. It doesn't seem like anything this year after JW is going to do it, aside from maybe The Nun being the next It in September or Sony getting their shit together with the Venom marketing and that getting great reception. Illumination could work their marketing magic with The Grinch, however I think that movie's gross will be far too spread over the holiday season for a 100+ OW. My guess:

 

51. Infinity War

52. Deadpool 2

53. The Incredibles 2

54. Jurassic World 2

55. Silver and Black (taking a gamble here after BP)

56. Captain Marvel

57. Shazam

58. Avengers 4

59. Aladdin

60. The Secret Life of Pets 2

 

I'm not sure that's going to be able to make its release date, it's not even written yet. 

 

 

[YM!]

I don’t see a $100M OW for Aquaman due to both competition and the fact that he didn’t get good reception in JL.

[Jonwo]

15 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t see a $100M OW for Aquaman due to both competition and the fact that he didn’t get good reception in JL.

It doesn't need $100m OW, Christmas legs will be more than enough if it does say $75-85m. Jumanji proved that handily

[StevenG]

33. Black Panther

34. Avengers: Infinity War

35. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

36. Avengers 4

37. The Lion King

38. Wonder Woman sequel

39. Mulan

40. Frozen 2

[IronJimbo]

The secret life of pets is maybe the only original film to make over $100m opening weekend.

[KeepItU25071906]

33. Black Panther

34. Avengers 3

35. The Icredibles 2

36. Fantastic Beastes 2

37. Marry Poppins

38. Avengers 4

39. Alladin

40. The Secrets life of Pets 2

[Jonwo]

I wouldn't be surprised if SLOP2 decreased a little from the first OW wise. 

[Avatree]

34 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It doesn't need $100m OW, Christmas legs will be more than enough if it does say $75-85m. Jumanji proved that handily

well it needs a 100M OW if it's going to open to 100M which is the point of this thread  

[YM!]

Anyways for $1B:

 

Blockbusters that aren’t going to make it:

Solo

Halloween

Grinch

Aquaman 

Mary Poppins

Captain Marvel 

Shazam

Toy Story 4

 

Blockbusters with a small chance:

Fantastic Beasts 2

Aladdin

Secret Life Of Pets 2

Homecoming 2

Wonder Woman 2

 

Blockbusters with a strong chance:

Incredibles 2

 

Locked:

Black Panther 

Both Infinity Wars

Fallen Kingdom

Lion King

Frozen 2

Episode IX

[MovieMan89]

57 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wouldn't be surprised if SLOP2 decreased a little from the first OW wise. 

Possible, but I don't think a first sequel to a big animated hit has ever not increased on OW. 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Possible, but I don't think a first sequel to a big animated hit has ever not increased on OW. 

I don't think it'll decrease dramatically but I think as others as mentioned, the premise isn't as fresh for a sequel and unlike Shrek or DM, it wasn't that strong a film in the first place. I'm thinking $85-90m OW which would still be excellent 

[MovieMan89]

31 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I don't think it'll decrease dramatically but I think as others as mentioned, the premise isn't as fresh for a sequel and unlike Shrek or DM, it wasn't that strong a film in the first place. I'm thinking $85-90m OW which would still be excellent 

The multi for it was fantastic though, so clearly the WOM was there with the target audience. I think kids loved it, which bodes very well for the OW for 2. I also think it can cloud some people’s judgment here as far as predictions because we’re not that audience. 

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Possible, but I don't think a first sequel to a big animated hit has ever not increased on OW. 

Kung Fu Panda 2. Although it had a 5-day opening, so maybe that diluted it a little bit.

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 2. Although it had a 5-day opening, so maybe that diluted it a little bit.

Dragon 2

Madagascar 2

[MCKillswitch123]

14 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Dragon 2

Madagascar 2

Dragon 2 went up on OW from Dragon 1, and so did Madagascar 2 from 1. His question was about OW increases from original to sequel in big animation hits.

[KP1025]

SLOP already had such a massive opening for an original animation that I think it will be hard for a sequel to match it with less hype. Sequels to original animated films do indeed typically increase, but we've not had an exact case like SLOP so far. You can argue that Finding Dory out-opened Finding Nemo adjusted ($107 million), but that was the sequel to one of the most highly acclaimed and beloved films of all-time and it had a 13-year gap after the original. The same reasoning can also be applied to Incredibles 2, which will likely increase from the adjusted OW ($104 million) of the first film.