Daily Numbers | Tuesday 27th Feb | BP 10.2m Game Night 1.9m Annihilation 1.21m

[KP1025]

21 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think the oscar's will have more impact for Best picture nominees than others on sunday, since the people who cares about the oscar will then watch the telecast and not going for those BP nominees in cinema.....

There's definitely a lot of casual moviegoers in the GA who watch it still. For reference, the Oscars had about 33 million viewers in the US alone last year (or about one third the number that watched the Superbowl). Deadpool dropped 43% that Sunday instead of its usual mid-30% despite being a CBM.

[MaxAggressor]

 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

That's a good point. So should we assume that BP will probably hold slightly better than Deadpool on all days given the MPAA ratings disadvantage for the latter?? Or is there more nuance to it regarding different days in a week??

 

I think his point was that the more adult audience still goes to see movies on work nights. Not as dependent on school kids to help the gross. Stronger Monday also makes it harder to pull a big Tuesday jump. Deadpool's Tuesday is 32.3% of Sunday, while Panther's Tuesday is 28.7% of Sunday. So far Panther has flexed a lot more muscle on Saturday/Sunday and I would expect this to continue.

[Valonqar]

What's with BP and .1M? 8.1M Mon, 10.1M Tue, ?.1M Wed? 

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Deadpool also increased on the Thursday - so, there's the possibility that Black Panther's Thursday drop will be better or flat from Wednesday. Even last Thursday Black Panther only dropped 3%.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Of course his $7.2m Thursday assumed a 24% Wednesday drop, which might be generous. Thor 3 increased 21% on the second Tuesday and then dropped 35% on Wednesday. Panther dropped 30% last Wednesday. Something similar would not be that big of a surprise this week. Deadpool's 1.5% Thursday increase would give it a $7.2m Thursday after a 30% drop on Wednesday.

[Jessie]

44 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Black Panther:

 

7.7M (-24%)

7.2M (-6%)

 

15.1M (+110%)

24.2M (+60%)

15.7M (-35%)

55M Weekend, 51% drop

 

Dunno if I'm feeling a 60M weekend anymore with that somewhat muted Tuesday. It'll be losing some PLFs to Red Sparrow, and the Oscars will lead to a bigger Sunday drop.

 

Game Night:

 

1.2M (-35%)

1.1M (-5%)

 

2.8M (+150%)

4.8M (+70%)

2.8M (-42%)

10.4M Weekend, 39% drop

 

Annihilation:

 

900k (-28%)

840K (-7%)

 

1.7M (+100%)

2.4M (+40%)

1.4M (-40%)

5.5M Weekend, 52% drop

Do people care that much about the oscars?

[AndyChrono]

36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think the oscar's will have more impact for Best picture nominees than others on sunday, since the people who cares about the oscar will then watch the telecast and not going for those BP nominees in cinema.....

If the AA audience tunes in to see how Get Out does, that will probably directly impact Black Panther on Sunday. IMO the low to mid 60's sounds about right.

[ZeeSoh]

Thats a 25% rise for BP whereas Deadpool rose only 15.5%. 

BP also had a week on week fall of 51.5% which is again better than the 55.4% fall of Deadpool.

 

In regards to Oscars, Deadpool faced the oscars in its 3rd weekend too and still had a 44.9% drop only (as compared to the 57.4% drop in its second weekend). I don't see why BP should fall more than that despite the Oscars considering Deadpool had a tremendously better 3rd weekend hold than its 2nd weekend. Also the fact that BP's weekend hold has been far better than Deadpool, I still think a fall in the 40-45% range is more likely which would give a 61.5-67 million weekend which is exactly what Deadline is predicting

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Jessie said:

Do people care that much about the oscars?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_States#2017

 

More than a world series game and some NFL playoff games, I imagine because there is a high proportion of frequent movie goer watching, make the effect a bit bigger.

[MrGlass2]

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_States#2017

 

More than a world series game and some NFL playoff games, I imagine because there is a high proportion of frequent movie goer watching, make the effect a bit bigger.

Especially compared to the dubious Game of Thrones effect that some people kept mentioning every Sunday of the last season.

[a2k]

34 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

That's a good point. So should we assume that BP will probably hold slightly better than Deadpool on all days given the MPAA ratings disadvantage for the latter?? Or is there more nuance to it regarding different days in a week??

The Wed drop should be higher than DP's -26.4%. Probably low-mid 30s. Don't know about rest but Sat bump should be better than DP's.

[WrathOfHan]

20 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Do people care that much about the oscars?

Nothing in the top 12 dropped below 33% for the 2016 Oscars when Deadpool was out, and most stuff was in the 40s.

Edited February 28, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[a2k]

24 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Do people care that much about the oscars?

Even more than Franco when he was on the stage. 

[IronJimbo]

t: 10.1 (422)

w:7.5 (429.5)

t: 7.5 (437)

f: 16 (453)

s: 25 (477)

s: 18 (496)(oscars)

m: 3.5 (499.5)

t: 4 (503.5)

w: 3.5(507)

t: 3.5(510.5)

f: 8.5(519)

s: 13(532)

s: 9(541)

m: 2(543)

t: 2(545)

w: 2(547)

t: 2(549)

 

1 month total approximation $550m

 

seems a bit low where are my numbers off?

 

Edited February 28, 2018 by IronJimbo

[grey ghost]

Um, why would BP have a worse weekend drop this weekend than last weekend?

 

OW was inflated by the Holiday and Thursday previews.

 

The 2nd weekend should have the biggest drop of the run.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

The 2nd weekend should have the biggest drop of the run.

 

That is not always the case. If you lose a ton of theaters at some point, it can lead to a massive drop no matter what the actual demand is for a movie.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Um, why would BP have a worse weekend drop this weekend than last weekend?

 

OW was inflated by the Holiday and Thursday previews.

 

The 2nd weekend should have the biggest drop of the run.

oscars make the sunday as big as the friday

[Dementeleus]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

t: 10.1 (422)

w:7.5 (429.5)

t: 7.5 (437)

f: 16 (453)

s: 25 (477)

s: 18 (496)(oscars)

m: 3.5 (499.5)

t: 4 (503.5)

w: 3.5(507)

t: 3.5(510.5)

f: 8.5(519)

s: 13(532)

s: 9(541)

m: 2(543)

t: 2(545)

w: 2(547)

t: 2(549)

 

1 month total approximation $550m

 

seems a bit low where are my numbers off?

 

 

You have the Monday after the Oscars dropping more than 50% from the previous Monday, for starters.

[AndyChrono]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

t: 10.1 (422)

w:7.5 (429.5)

t: 7.5 (437)

f: 16 (453)

s: 25 (477)

s: 18 (496)(oscars)

m: 3.5 (499.5)

t: 4 (503.5)

w: 3.5(507)

t: 3.5(510.5)

f: 8.5(519)

s: 13(532)

s: 9(541)

m: 2(543)

t: 2(545)

w: 2(547)

t: 2(549)

 

1 month total approximation $550m

 

seems a bit low where are my numbers off?

 

The coming Monday probably won't be as low as 3.5m. If the Sunday drop is larger due to Oscars, then the Monday drop should be smaller. If it's say, 45% week-to-week drop from last Monday that would be about 4.5m. You'd have to then adjust all the numbers after that as well.

[grey ghost]

This is obviously a weekend movie.

 

Mostly due to being family friendly, deflated week days and minorities preferring to see movies on the weekend (anecdotal take).

 

Last weekend's hold was beast mode.

 

I'm guessing around 67 m with an outside shot of 70 m.