Easter Weekend Thread: Official Weekend Actuals: RPO $41.8M ($53.7M 4-Day), Acrimony $17.2M, BP $11.5M, ICOI $10.4M, PRU $9.4M, IOD $2.9M, GND3 $2.7M

[KeepItU25071906]

18 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I have to be w/@WrathOfHan on this. RPO has clearly been more frontloaded than GI Joe 2 so far. 

Why do you not count "true" Tuesday? If this Friday's number is true- RPO hasn't been more frontloaded than GI Joe 2.

Edited March 30, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[MCKillswitch123]

7 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Why do you not count "true" Tuesday?

...Tuesday?

 

Anyway, I... did. I already posted this before in this thread: RPO's true Thursday, 8.2M (3.8M previews, 12M OD) is only 0.3M bigger than GI Joe's real Thursday of 7.9M (2.6M previews, 10.5M OD).... despite starting w/1.2M more in previews. It means that the Wednesday to Thursday increase was smaller, albeit slightly so, for RPO than it was for GI Joe. Also, GI Joe's preview accounts for 24.8% share of the OD gross; while RPO's preview is 31.7%. Those are signs of frontloadedness.

 

Also, if you wanna put the Friday gross as evidence.... GI Joe's Friday increase was much bigger than RPO's. 10.5M Thursday to 15.3M Friday vs. 12M Thursday to current estimate of 15M Friday. How is that not a clear sign that GI Joe is more backloaded?

Edited March 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[KeepItU25071906]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

...Tuesday?

 

Sorry, Thursday.

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It means that the Wednesday to Thursday increase was smaller, albeit slightly so, for RPO than it was for GI Joe. Also, GI Joe's preview accounts for 24.8% share of the OD gross; while RPO's preview is 31.7%. Those are signs of frontloadedness.

yes, I agree.

 

But Friday numbers looks good (if, of course, we will get really 15 mln tomorrow) and isn't worse than GI Joe jump.

Edited March 30, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[WrathOfHan]

Reposting this from the other thread:

 

 

If RPO, A Quiet Place, and Rampage all miss 40M, we're only going to have four 40M openers (BP/IW/DP2/Solo) in the first five months of the year, and all of those are going to open over 100M with two 200M openers  

Edited March 30, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[TwoMisfits]

RPO projection (if I was projecting the weekend):

Previews/Thursday $12M

Friday $15M

Saturday $16M (+6.6%) (yes, I am predicting a family/dad increase...my locals are looking good for tomorrow's matinees, so I'm projecting a bigger family push than something like GI Joe 2 got - sue me, I'm gonna cheer for the premier concept:)

Sun $11.2M (-30%)

3 day weekend $42.2M / 4 day $54.2M (yes, I'm also going more optimistic than Deadline - it worked all weekend for ICOI, which also got that family component)...

 

Edited March 30, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Sorry, Thursday.

yes, I agree.

 

But Friday numbers looks good (if, of course, we will get really 15 mln tomorrow) and isn't worse than GI Joe jump.

Thursday forecasts in the daytime yesterday were $13m+ and ended up being $12m. So yeah, probably premature to talk about the $15m number with any certainty.

Edited March 30, 2018 by MovieMan89

[MCKillswitch123]

9 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Sorry, Thursday.

yes, I agree.

 

But Friday numbers looks good (if, of course, we will get really 15 mln tomorrow) and isn't worse than GI Joe jump.

I mean, 15M Friday is not a bad number, but it IS worse than GI Joe's jump, as I posted above in my late edit. GI Joe jumped from a 10.5M OD to a 15.3M Friday. RPO started w/a 12M OD, which already had a far bigger previews gross share than GI Joe did, and it's gonna jump to the same 15M range. GI Joe jumped 4.8M and 45.8%; RPO's jump, assuming the 15M doesn't change, would be of 3M and 25%. RPO's jump would only be not worse than GI Joe's if it made 17.5M on Friday, and it'd be within the same range from 16.8M onwards.

 

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Reposting this from the other thread:

 

 

If RPO, A Quiet Place, and Rampage all miss 40M, we're only going to have four 40M openers (BP/IW/DP2/Solo) in the first five months of the year  

I doubt RPO misses 40 for the 3 days. And Rampage is not missing, for damn sure, and it's probably gonna challenge for 50M actually.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Reposting this from the other thread:

 

 

If RPO, A Quiet Place, and Rampage all miss 40M, we're only going to have four 40M openers (BP/IW/DP2/Solo) in the first five months of the year, and all of those are going to open over 100M with two 200M openers  

Solo could miss 100 OWwith the 4 day spread and the way marketing has been. Needs to not get mediocre or bad reviews, that will be really bad for it.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

40 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

A 31% preview share of OD is like CBM sequel level frontloading. That's nearly on par with BvS. Maybe just a fluke, but not a good sign of how RPO might play for the weekend at the moment. 

Not like it’s exactly the same, but I saw the same amount of panic when Baby Driver’s opening day was frontloaded. We know how that turned out

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Solo could miss 100 OWwith the 4 day spread and the way marketing has been. Needs to not get mediocre or bad reviews, that will be really bad for it.

Don't be ridiculous, it's a Goddamn Star Wars movie, it's not missing 100M even in a parallel universe. People might not care about this particular entry as much, but.... it's still Star Wars. And the 4-day spread helps its 100M 3-day chances if anything, cause Monday is a holiday and that inflates the Sunday gross.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Not like it’s exactly the same, but I saw the same amount of panic when Baby Driver’s opening day was frontloaded. We know how that turned out

BD’s WOM exploded out of the gate though. That’s why I said great WOM for RPO could offset the frontloadness. But I do think it will need exceptional WOM.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I mean, 15M Friday is not a bad number, but it IS worse than GI Joe's jump, as I posted above in my late edit. GI Joe jumped from a 10.5M OD to a 15.3M Friday. RPO started w/a 12M OD, which already had a far bigger previews gross share than GI Joe did, and it's gonna jump to the same 15M range. GI Joe jumped 4.8M and 45.8%; RPO's jump, assuming the 15M doesn't change, would be of 3M and 25%. RPO's jump would only be not worse than GI Joe's if it made 17.5M on Friday, and it'd be within the same range from 16.8M onwards.

 

I doubt RPO misses 40 for the 3 days. And Rampage is not missing, for damn sure, and it's probably gonna challenge for 50M actually.

It's basically the same jump when you subtract Wed preview numbers.  GI Joe did $8.3m on Thur and RPO did $8.25m minus previews.

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

RPO projection (if I was projecting the weekend):

Previews/Thursday $12M

Friday $15M

Saturday $16M (+6.6%) (yes, I am predicting a family/dad increase...my locals are looking good for tomorrow's matinees, so I'm projecting a bigger family push than something like GI Joe 2 got - sue me, I'm gonna cheer for the premier concept:)

Sun $11.2M (-30%)

3 day weekend $42.2M / 4 day $54.2M (yes, I'm also going more optimistic than Deadline - it worked all weekend for ICOI, which also got that family component)...

 

Think some people will be like  if RPO posted a Saturday increase that big, 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Don't be ridiculous, it's a Goddamn Star Wars movie, it's not missing 100M even in a parallel universe. People might not care about this particular entry as much, but.... it's still Star Wars. And the 4-day spread helps its 100M 3-day chances if anything, cause Monday is a holiday and that inflates the Sunday gross.

I’d bet money it misses 100m on OW if it were to end up Rotten. Otherwise I agree that it will make it, though I don’t see anymore than $120m for the 3 day unless marketing makes some major strides in appeal in May.

[KeepItU25071906]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I mean, 15M Friday is not a bad number, but it IS worse than GI Joe's jump

nope, cause you again doesn't count jump from "true" Thursday

 

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Thursday forecasts in the daytime yesterday were $13m+ and ended up being $12m. So yeah, probably premature to talk about the $15m number with any certainty.

...may be...

Edited March 30, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[WrathOfHan]

lol @ this Spotify playlist  Fox knows their audience:

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

I ve never tried a VR helmet but I know that obviously, in order to work properly in real time according to your momvements, you have a giant downgrade in terms of graphics

Do you think that a computer following a head movement you need worst graphic that to follow mouse and keyboard movement, that the issue with VR performance (not that you need to render 2 different camera at the same time for each eye, doubling the resolution rendered vs a single screen) ?

 

What would be the different for a 3D engine to follow your head changing the 3d camera vs a mouse moving the 3d camera ?

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's basically the same jump when you subtract Wed preview numbers.  GI Joe did $8.3m on Thur and RPO did $8.25m minus previews.

Either I am doing some bad math, I'm getting misinformed, or everyone else is doing it wrong. Because everywhere I search tells me that GI Joe made 2.6M on Wednesday night previews, and a 10.5M OD. When you subtract Wednesdays, it made 7.9M Thursday, not 8.3M.

[KeepItU25071906]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Either I am doing some bad math, I'm getting misinformed, or everyone else is doing it wrong. Because everywhere I search tells me that GI Joe made 2.6M on Wednesday night previews, and a 10.5M OD. When you subtract Wednesdays, it made 7.9M Thursday, not 8.3M.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3658&p=.htm

[MCKillswitch123]

17 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

nope, cause you again doesn't count jump from "true" Thursday

 

...may be...

13 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3658&p=.htm

Well, either that post is wrong, or all of these more recent outlets of information are instead:

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-ready-player-one-black-panther-1202738955/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/03/29/box-office-ready-player-one-scores-promising-3-75m-wednesday/#61d0dd9732d7

http://deadline.com/2013/03/g-i-joe-retailiation-opens-big-with-2-25m-from-wednesday-night-thursday-midnight-shows-463384/

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4383&p=.htm

 

The last two report 2.5M, but the 2.6M stuck more, for some reason. That being said, even if it were 2.5 instead of 2.6, it would still imply a bigger real Thursday to Friday increase than RPO's (8 real Thu to 15.3 Fri vs. 8.2 real Thu to 15 Fri....).

 

Edited March 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123