Easter Weekend Thread: Official Weekend Actuals: RPO $41.8M ($53.7M 4-Day), Acrimony $17.2M, BP $11.5M, ICOI $10.4M, PRU $9.4M, IOD $2.9M, GND3 $2.7M

[bangbingchan]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

The Dom 4-day won't beat China's 3-day by much!

Am guessing it has a shot at 3x multiplier in China with that rating, which gives around $145 total.

In fact,Maoyan predict $250M for RP1.it's a bit too high.$150M+ is very likely.$200M is not dead.And Douban is 9.2 after  38k reviews.The score is same as Zootopia($235M),Coco($189M).it's this year Kong:Skull island，which is $180M at current exchange rate

Edited March 30, 2018 by bangbingchan

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

No matter how good/bad the movie is, I think GND3 made a huge mistake opening as the 3rd of the 3 faith based movies in a row.  That audience does not go out for movies that much, and asking for 3 weekends in a row is kinda crazy.  I'm sure it was hoping ICOI would be over and out, but ICOI's breakout with a probably better and more approachable movie for more people (faith-based, music lovers, family) pretty much made this movie DOA.  I mean, I'm not sure it won't finish this OW in 3rd place in the faith-based movies ranking...and Paul only made a little more than $5M last weekend, so it's 2nd weekend can't/won't be all that high...

It's also playing up victim complexes in a big way. Scott Mendelson did a deep dive last week showing that almost all of the faith based movies which do well are affirmations of faith rather than playing up persecution or victimhood. The audience wants to enjoy a movie in a church like atmosphere rather than be sermonized to is the thinking.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting RPO with my weekend prediction:

 

Mar 30: 43.2M (14.9M weekdays/12M OD, 70.1M Total)

Apr 6: 19.8M (6.5M weekdays, 96.4M Total)

Apr 13: 9.2M (3.5M weekdays, 109.1M Total)

Apr 20: 6.2M (2.1M weekdays, 117.4M Total)

Apr 27: 2.6M (900k weekdays, 120.9M Total)

May 4: 1.6M (600k weekdays, 123.1M Total)

May 11: 1M (300k weekdays, 124.4M Total)

Final Total: 127M (2.94x from 3 day/2.3x from 4 day)

 

I expect it to follow GI Joe Retaliation somewhat closely. That faced a bit of competition in April, and RPO is already more frontloaded than it. GI Joe managed a 3x, but Infinity War will prevent that with this IMO

I don't think GI Joe R is a good movie to use to estimate RPO's BO run...GI Joe R was a "tv property/toy" movie, and those tend to have a harder time breaking out from just their original fan base viewers.  Worse, it's a sequel, so of course it would front-load more.  I'd find a better premier sci-fi/action template movie to try to use as the "base"...and even better if that template released Easter weekend...

 

PS - Now, I'm not saying to use The Matrix, b/c that was in a different box office time...but I think you're looking more for that type of movie to estimate legs vs a tv/toy sequel...and I'm sure there's some equivalent somewhere:)...

Edited March 30, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MCKillswitch123]

Wow, the China overperformance is surprising, but great on them for making a movie that crossed over w/that audience. Only DA BERG. (We need a Spielberg emoji asap.)

[That One Girl]

Let's hope RPO has legs like this

 

[MCKillswitch123]

Already posted something one of these lists earlier this year, but here's what the 2018 box office earners on the weekend top 5 only (domestic) list looks like so far [only FSS 3-days count; albeit I include any preview numbers avaliable, even Tuesday/Wednesday], a list that Ready Player One and Acrimony will both join this weekend:

 

(Bold means that it's a movie that appeared in last weekend's top 5; Italic means that it's a 2017 movie that appeared in a 2018 weekend top 5)

 

2018 WEEKENDS-ONLY RESULTS:

01.    Black Panther - 464.2M
02.    Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle - 129.7M
03.    Peter Rabbit - 65.3M
04.    Fifty Shades Freed - 63M
05.    The Greatest Showman - 60.6M
06.    A Wrinkle In Time - 49.4M
07.    The Post - 45.4M
08.    Insidious: The Last Key - 42M
09.    Game Night - 35.3M
10.    Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 34.7M
11.    Tomb Raider - 33.7M
12.    I Can Only Imagine - 30.7M
13.    Pacific Rim Uprising - 28.1M
14.    Red Sparrow - 25.4M
15.    Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 23.7M
16.    The 15:17 To Paris - 20.2M
17.    12 Strong - 15.3M
18.    Den Of Thieves - 15.2M
19.    The Commuter - 13.7M
20.    Death Wish ('18 remake) - 13M
21.    Love, Simon - 11.8M
22.    Annihilation - 11.1M
23.    Sherlock Gnomes - 10.6M
24.    The Strangers: Prey At Night - 10.4M
25.    Pitch Perfect 3 - 10.3M
26.    Hostiles - 10.1M
27.    Winchester - 9.3M

 

2017-2018 COMBINED RESULTS:
01.    Black Panther - 464.2M
02.    Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 367.8M
03.    Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle - 217.8M
04.    The Greatest Showman - 84.9M
05.    Peter Rabbit - 65.3M
06.    Fifty Shades Freed - 63M
07.    A Wrinkle In Time - 49.4M
08.    Pitch Perfect 3 - 47M
09.    The Post - 45.4M
10.    Insidious: The Last Key - 42M
11.    Game Night - 35.3M
12.    Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 34.7M
13.    Tomb Raider - 33.7M
14.    I Can Only Imagine - 30.7M
15.    Pacific Rim Uprising - 28.1M
16.    Red Sparrow - 25.4M
17.    The 15:17 To Paris - 20.2M
18.    12 Strong - 15.3M
19.    Den Of Thieves - 15.2M
20.    The Commuter - 13.7M
21.    Death Wish ('18 remake) - 13M
22.    Love, Simon - 11.8M
23.    Annihilation - 11.1M
24.    Sherlock Gnomes - 10.6M
25.    The Strangers: Prey At Night - 10.4M
26.    Hostiles - 10.1M
27.    Winchester - 9.3M

Edited March 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[sfran43]

 

 

Edited March 30, 2018 by sfran43

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Wow, the China overperformance is surprising, but great on them for making a movie that crossed over w/that audience. Only DA BERG. (We need a Spielberg emoji asap.)

We need a Cameron emoji... he did make the two highest grossing films of all time and this IS a box office forum, right?

 

Mods you can expect a compliation of Cameron reaction images for your consideration in the immediate future.

[IronJimbo]

You gotta remember new IPs to the big screen always have small opening weekends, look at Avatar (77m).

 

I'm expecting RP1 to make 200m DOM at a minimum.

Edited March 30, 2018 by IronJimbo

[MCKillswitch123]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

We need a Cameron emoji... he did make the two highest grossing films of all time and this IS a box office forum, right?

 

Mods you can expect a compliation of Cameron reaction images for your consideration in the immediate future.

I mean, sure, it makes sense.

 

But Spielberg still deserves one nonetheless

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I mean, sure, it makes sense.

 

But Spielberg still deserves one nonetheless

He already has one!!!

 

 

 

Wait a second...

 

 

 

[Rman823]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

No matter how good/bad the movie is, I think GND3 made a huge mistake opening as the 3rd of the 3 faith based movies in a row.  That audience does not go out for movies that much, and asking for 3 weekends in a row is kinda crazy.  I'm sure it was hoping ICOI would be over and out, but ICOI's breakout with a probably better and more approachable movie for more people (faith-based, music lovers, family) pretty much made this movie DOA.  I mean, I'm not sure it won't finish this OW in 3rd place in the faith-based movies ranking...and Paul only made a little more than $5M last weekend, so it's 2nd weekend can't/won't be all that high...

Exactly. I know it’s Easter but you would think they would space these out more. 

[WrathOfHan]

47 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I don't think GI Joe R is a good movie to use to estimate RPO's BO run...GI Joe R was a "tv property/toy" movie, and those tend to have a harder time breaking out from just their original fan base viewers.  Worse, it's a sequel, so of course it would front-load more.  I'd find a better premier sci-fi/action template movie to try to use as the "base"...and even better if that template released Easter weekend...

 

PS - Now, I'm not saying to use The Matrix, b/c that was in a different box office time...but I think you're looking more for that type of movie to estimate legs vs a tv/toy sequel...and I'm sure there's some equivalent somewhere:)...

I'd agree with this if the preview to OD multi wasn't significantly lower than Retaliation.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'd agree with this if the preview to OD multi wasn't significantly lower than Retaliation.

Ehhh...I'm not sure that one data point is gonna be as meaningful as you think...people are not in the habit of looking for Thursday openers, so Thursday could be as much a blip as a tell-tale sign...particularly since this Thursday was Opening Day for MLB (and I'm pretty sure the Thursday wide MLB opening is not the norm for them, either)...

Edited March 30, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Wrath]

4 hours ago, November Treejax said:

WARCRAFT was a good film, the only good video game movie so far.

I'm a big box office nerd, a big WoW nerd, and also a big WoW-lore nerd. Warcraft was not a good movie.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Ehhh...I'm not sure that one data point is gonna be as meaningful as you think...people are not in the habit of looking for Thursday openers, so Thursday could be as much a blip as a tell-tale sign...particularly since this Thursday was Opening Day for MLB (and I'm pretty sure the Thursday wide MLB opening is not the norm for them, either)...

GI Joe 2 also had a Thur opening, during the same time of year

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

It's also playing up victim complexes in a big way. Scott Mendelson did a deep dive last week showing that almost all of the faith based movies which do well are affirmations of faith rather than playing up persecution or victimhood. The audience wants to enjoy a movie in a church like atmosphere rather than be sermonized to is the thinking.

Going to church often includes listening to a sermon...

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Wrath said:

Going to church often includes listening to a sermon...

Yes it does...but most movie going is an escape from real life, not a reminder of it:)...

[TwoMisfits]

So, even with another faith-based opener this weekend and 3 total in the marketplace, any chance ICOI goes for a sub-10% weekend drop this weekend, especially with its continued expansion?  

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, even with another faith-based opener this weekend and 3 total in the marketplace, any chance ICOI goes for a sub-10% weekend drop this weekend, especially with its continued expansion?  

 

 

I have it dropping just over 20%. Love, Simon had an insane increase yesterday, and I think that's dropping in the high-teens; a similar increase for ICOI would make me adjust my prediction.