Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[Cooper Legion]

A Quiet Place doing great, but that’s also a nice Saturday number for BP. 8.8+ for the weekend is very possible with 2.33 Fri and 3.9 Sat.

[a2k]

AQP will touch 50 easily with that Sat

19+19.2 = 38.2, so needs only 11.8 (-38.5%) Sunday

 

Great 65% bump for RPO! 25+ is happening

6.8 + 11.2 + 7.5 (-33.0%) = 25.5 (-39%)

6.8 + 11.2 + 7.0 (-37.5%) = 25.0 (-40%)

Around 52 away from 150 so should cross it comfortably I guess.

Edited April 8, 2018 by a2knet

[boxofficeth]

Great Saturday jump for all!! 

50 M is still in play for AQP. 8th biggest opener in April.

25 M for RPO. 

21M for Blockers. 

8M for BP - good for top 13 gross for the 8th wknd

[a2k]

Dom could make up for what steam RPO lost in China, and keep 600 ww alive.

Few days back was thinking 235 in China and 135 Dom. Right now guessing 210 China and 160 Dom

210 ch

160 d

185 current_os-ch (2.8*ow)

20 japan

15 germany

= 590

[picores]

Black Panther looks to drop only 20-23% from last weekend. Wow. 700 looks very very good even with IW in a few weeks.

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

Great Saturday jump for all!! 

50 M is still in play for AQP. 8th biggest opener in April.

25 M for RPO. 

21M for Blockers. 

8M for BP - good for top 13 gross for the 8th wknd

Only need a 2.2 Sunday (44% drop) to pass Sixth Sense and get a 10th best 8th wknd.  A good Sunday hold gets it past There’s Something about Mary’s 8.8 for 9th best.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Sliver Legion

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, picores said:

Black Panther looks to drop only 20-23% from last weekend. Wow. 700 looks very very good even with IW in a few weeks.

adding 2.5-3x the 8th weekend to it's cume takes it to 685-690. should manage that if not more. but closer it gets to 695, the more one thinks that Disney won't let it go below 700.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Rth Wakanda said:

AQP 19.2,RP1 11.2, CBLOCK 8.4,BP 3.9

 

cblock!!   

 

Love that acronym

[aabattery]

When you get the big Sat bump

 

 

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, picores said:

Black Panther looks to drop only 20-23% from last weekend. Wow. 700 looks very very good even with IW in a few weeks.

 

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

adding 2.5-3x the 8th weekend to it's cume takes it to 685-690. should manage that if not more. but closer it gets to 695, the more one thinks that Disney won't let it go below 700.

 

I actually think IW could deliver a boost to BP numbers and not harm it in any way. Its not only the logical choice for a Double Feature, i think many people will see IW as the sequel to Black Panthers storyline that it is - and may want to revisit BP once more before IW hits.

[baumer]

That's a 65% increase for RPO.  Very nice.

 

So give it a 35% drop today and you have 

 

6.8

11.2

7.3

 

25.3

 

That's a 40% drop and a sign of great legs.  I was hoping for about a 44% drop.  This is really encouraging.  Even if it drops 40% on Sunday, which it won't, it still has about a 42% drop.  Very nice.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Rth Wakanda said:

AQP 19.2,RP1 11.2, CBLOCK 8.4,BP 3.9

 

I'm just bumping rTH's post to this page so that when people want to visit the page number they don't have to scroll through all those ridiculous horror film posts.  

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

That's a 65% increase for RPO.  Very nice.

 

So give it a 35% drop today and you have 

 

6.8

11.2

7.3

 

25.3

 

That's a 40% drop and a sign of great legs.  I was hoping for about a 44% drop.  This is really encouraging.  Even if it drops 40% on Sunday, which it won't, it still has about a 42% drop.  Very nice.  

 

But...but i thought it was a flop and the majority didnt like it?????????

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

But...but i thought it was a flop and the majority didnt like it?????????

 

I haven't been here enough this past week to ascertain how people don't like it.  All I know is that I loved it and when I saw it, I said I think this could a Sixth Sense kind of repeat value to it.  It's not going to have a 11 multiplier, times have changed in 19 years, but I think it could have a 3.5-3.7X because there is so much to pick up on in the first viewing that you need a second and third viewing to see it all.  This first weekend drop, imo, points to this having a very a good run.  

 

Saw it with my brother last night, who is three years younger than me, and not quite as big a fan of some of the movies that it pays respect to, but he loved it and now wants to see it again and he wants to go home and watch some of the stuff the film touches on.  The one big scene that everyone is in love with, was also his favourite in the movie.

 

Hoping it can get to 160-170.

[a2k]

4-day

GIJ2 51.0 (10.5 + 40.5 FSS)

RPO 53.7 (11.9 + 41.8 FSS)

 

11-day

GIJ2 86.4 (after 20.9 FSS / -48%)

RPO 97.4 (using 25.5 FSS / -39%)

 

GIJ2 added 36.1 more to it's run. That's 1.72*20.9

Same multi gives RPO 97.4 + 1.72*25.5 = 141.3

Considering it's legging much better than GIJ2 (maybe due to reception + non-sequel), 97.4 + 2.1*25.5 = 151.0 seems like the floor. 160 needs 2.5x the 2nd weekend and that's possible will depend on hold against Rampage and above all AIW's giant impact.

Edited April 8, 2018 by a2knet

[picores]

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

4-day

GIJ2 51.0 (10.5 + 40.5 FSS)

RPO 53.7 (11.9 + 41.8 FSS)

 

11-day

GIJ2 86.4 (after 20.9 FSS / -48%)

RPO 97.4 (using 25.5 FSS / -39%)

 

GIJ2 added 36.1 more to it's run. That's 1.72*20.9

Same multi gives RPO 97.4 + 1.72*25.5 = 141.3

Considering it's legging much better than GIJ2 (maybe due to reception + non-sequel), 97.4 + 2.1*25.5 = 151.0 seems like the floor. 160 needs 2.5x the 2nd weekend and that's possible will depend on hold against Rampage and above all AIW's giant impact.

Great job. 155-170m is a sensible range right now. I think it will finish around Kong's 168m DOM take.

Edited April 8, 2018 by picores

[Krissykins]

A horror film playing that level increasing on its Saturday is very impressive. 

 

Nice increase for Blockers, secures $20m+. 

 

Fantastic for Ready Player One.

 

These 3 films are great so it’s enjoyable to see them doing so well. 

[dxmatrixdt]

11 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Same multi gives RPO 97.4 + 1.72*25.5 = 141.3

Considering it's legging much better than GIJ2 (maybe due to reception + non-sequel), 97.4 + 2.1*25.5 = 151.0 seems like the floor. 160 needs 2.5x the 2nd weekend and that's possible will depend on hold against Rampage and above all AIW's giant impact.

Blade Runner 2049 did 15.5 on its second weekend and I think has a number between 2.0-2.1

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

A horror film playing that level increasing on its Saturday is very impressive. 

 

Nice increase for Blockers, secures $20m+. 

 

Fantastic for Ready Player One.

 

These 3 films are great so it’s enjoyable to see them doing so well. 

 

Hoping to see Quiet Place today.  I would have seen it eventually but your enjoyment of it certainly has me excited to see it.  

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Blade Runner 2049 did 15.5 on its second weekend and I think has a number between 2.0-2.1

Yes. And BR2049 had 52.5% drop in the 3rd weekend. Thinking RPO will drop 40-45% in weekend 3 against Rampage and then 35-40% the weekend before AIW opens. 55-60% against AIW followed by good (hopefully) recovery. Weekdays will also keep on getting better mid-May onward.

Edited April 8, 2018 by a2knet