Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[sfran43]

 

[Ledmonkey96]

7 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

That IOD number is nowhere as good as it looks. While it did increase 9% from last Friday, its PTA fell 69% after gaining almost 1400 theaters. I don't see too many more expansions in its future.

how do theater counts work for delayed releases like IoD? Do the theaters still have to keep the movie for 2 weeks past when they get it or can they drop it the very next weekend?

[filmlover]

Just now, Ledmonkey96 said:

how do theater counts work for delayed releases like IoD? Do the theaters still have to keep the movie for 2 weeks past when they get it or can they drop it the very next weekend?

9 times out of 10, yes.

[sfran43]

 

[harrycaul]

I mean Truth Or Dare netted (not gross, net) its production budget on the first day. That's a very clear win.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Agreed. The horror genre is consistently the most profitable genre right now. Even the low grossing horror films turn a profit. TOD, barring an epic collapse, will make $15M+ this weekend and that's a success given its budget. Were it not for AQP, the film would have opened even better. 

 

With an 8 mill friday, I think it will open closer to 17.

[sfran43]

 

[Dandeak2000]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

None of these are best case scenarios.  They are possibilities, but not best case.  Also, why would it fall 50% on Sunday?  More like 38-42%.  

HDD dropped 49.5% on Sunday. I based the scenario off what HDD did

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

HDD dropped 49.5% on Sunday. I based the scenario off what HDD did

 

In October.  

 

EDIT

 

I checked some other horror films in April and it looks like the sunday drop of 45-50% is the norm.  So I take it back, you are correct.

[sfran43]

 

[MCKillswitch123]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Between $70-75M. It's bound to drop about 55% next weekend, and then of course will get completely massacred in the Avengers onslaught the following.

I think WB should've scrapped the April release altogether and pushed release all the way to mid Summer. 2 weeks after Ready Player One and the same distance from Infinity War as before seems like a deadly sandwich, and then you throw the massive success of A Quiet Place in there, and it seemed like a recipe for an underperformance. All it did was undercut both Rampage and RPO's runs in one fell swoop. I didn't want to admit it because I was stanning for this movie, but sadly, the evidence was kinda clear in hindsight. They should've pushed it to August or something.

 

It's still probably gonna do 300M+ WW, so there's that, but the potential was there for more.

[Alli]

About this draw thing. I'd add that once an actor has a few hits they can chose the scripts/directors they wanna work with. So if he's smart they can continue working with top directors which will result in good movies and eventually good box office. The perfect example is Leo Di Caprio. He;s working with top directors. It used to be the same for Cruise, but since a few years ago he's working with crap/mediocre directors and i think he doesn't have first look at scripts anymore so his BO is crap these days

Edited April 14, 2018 by Alli

[Dandeak2000]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

In October.  

On Friday the 13th. HDD is great comparison to Truth or Dare because they both opened on Friday the 13, by the same production company. They both had their Friday equal around 11x their previews. If TOD continues to perform like HDD then it will have a weekend of $18.15M.

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

If that holds then it's a bit lower than expected after Friday, but the weekend will be strong nevertheless. $52-53 ow probably.

[POTUS 2020]

Rank*	Title	Friday 4/13 (Estimates)	Saturday 4/14	Sunday 4/15	Monday 4/16
1	RAMPAGE (2018) Warner Bros. (New Line) 4,101	$11,500,000 -- / $2,804 $11,500,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	A QUIET PLACE Paramount 3,589	$10,500,000 +189.1% / $2,926 $77,535,885 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	TRUTH OR DARE Universal 3,029	$8,248,000 -- / $2,723 $8,248,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	BLOCKERS Universal 3,418	$3,241,000 +156.2% / $948 $29,874,670 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
5	READY PLAYER ONE Warner Bros. 3,661	$2,930,000 +115.5% / $800 $106,332,798 / 16	N/A	N/A	N/A
6	ISLE OF DOGS Fox Searchlight 1,939	$1,555,000 +391.9% / $802 $15,005,864 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
7	BLACK PANTHER Buena Vista 2,180	$1,447,000 +130.9% / $664 $669,902,522 / 57	N/A	N/A	N/A
8	TYLER PERRY'S ACRIMONY Lionsgate 1,332	$1,074,000 +125% / $806 $35,249,477 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
9	CHAPPAQUIDDICK Entertainment Studios 1,645	$850,000 +94.7% / $517 $8,831,383 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
10	THE MIRACLE SEASON Mirror/LD 1,707	$634,000 +268.1% / $371 $5,462,836 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
11	BEIRUT Bleecker Street 755	$480,000 +181% / $636 $853,036 / 3	N/A	N/A	N/A
12	SHERLOCK GNOMES Paramount 2,116	$417,000 +93.2% / $197 $35,240,487 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	PACIFIC RIM UPRISING Universal 1,537	$377,000 +67.7% / $245 $56,531,135 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	SGT. STUBBY: AN AMERICAN HERO Fun Academy 1,685	$350,000 -- / $208 $350,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	A WRINKLE IN TIME Buena Vista 112	$329,000 +82.3% / $2,938 $91,425,220 / 36	N/A	N/A	N/A

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think WB should've scrapped the April release altogether and pushed release all the way to mid Summer. 2 weeks after Ready Player One and the same distance from Infinity War as before seems like a deadly sandwich, and then you throw the massive success of A Quiet Place in there, and it seemed like a recipe for an underperformance. All it did was undercut both Rampage and RPO's runs in one fell swoop. I didn't want to admit it because I was stanning for this movie, but sadly, the evidence was kinda clear in hindsight. They should've pushed it to August or something.

 

It's still probably gonna do 300M+ WW, so there's that, but the potential was there for more.

Universal and Skyscraper claimed the title of the Dwayne Johnson summer movie first.

[Dandeak2000]

Ouch at Sgt. Stubby's PTA. Sub-$1K for its opening is likely to push it out of theaters very soon

[a2k]

Rampage is a good steady 80% on RT audience and a very lowly 6.4/10 on IMDB.

[harrycaul]

Just now, Mike Hunt said:

Ouch at Sgt. Stubby's PTA. Sub-$1K for its opening is likely to push it out of theaters very soon

What was their marketing budget? Like 50 bucks? The only reason I knew it was even a movie was following box office.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Well, this is how Rampage should be feeling before Infinity War's release: