BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[MovieMan89]

December could be record breaking if most of that stuff is any good. There's so much that nothing needs to be 400+ huge for it to be the biggest December ever. 

[MikeQ]

2 minutes ago, tawasal said:

The follow ups to movies that broke big records tend to fall/drop from their previous outings. 

 

Jurassic Park > The Lost World 

Avengers > Age of Ultron

The Force Awakens > The Last Jedi

Spider-Man > Spider-Man 2

The Dark Knight > The Dark Knight Rises

The Phantom Menace > Attack of the Clones

Star Wars > The Empire Strikes Back 

 

 

Avatar sequel to follow next.

The one factor that makes Avatar 2 different from the rest of those examples is that it will be released 11 years after the original, rather than in the span of a few years after the original was released. We've seen that sequels released much later sometimes benefit from "nostalgia", or pent up demand, or intangible factors related to not being a "direct sequel" planned and released soon after the original.

 

Additionally, though Avatar 2 won't benefit from 3D in the same way the original did, Avatar 2 will certainly benefit significantly from inflation and vastly expanded/improved box office markets like China.

 

All this being said, Avatar 2 is probably highly likely to follow your other examples (especially since the original is the highest grossing film worldwide by FAR, so that's a huge record to overcome for a sequel), but it is still in a qualitatively different situation than those examples. If it's really good and again represents groundbreaking special effects, it has the potential to do gangbusters. It could make insane numbers in China alone.

 

Peace,

Mike

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Any Ant-Man 2 tracking available?

'Ant-Man and the Wasp' Tracking for $75M Box-Office Debut

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/ant-man-wasp-tracking-75m-box-office-debut-1120085

[tawasal]

9 hours ago, baumer said:

 

It always matters for headlines, except Disney, they don't seem to give a fuck about headlines.

Everyone should really be adapting their approach. Even if the numbers are bad they are going to under estimate so that we are surprised and happy with the actuals that jump 2m-5m in some cases from the estimates. The numbers just get better throughout the whole weekend and that has a good effect on people’s approach to what that certain movie has managed to make.

[tawasal]

5 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

The one factor that makes Avatar 2 different from the rest of those examples is that it will be released 11 years after the original, rather than in the span of a few years after the original was released. We've seen that sequels released much later sometimes benefit from "nostalgia", or pent up demand, or intangible factors related to not being a "direct sequel" planned and released soon after the original.

 

Additionally, though Avatar 2 won't benefit from 3D in the same way the original did, Avatar 2 will certainly benefit significantly from inflation and vastly expanded/improved box office markets like China.

 

All this being said, Avatar 2 is probably highly likely to follow your other examples (especially since the original is the highest grossing film worldwide by FAR, so that's a huge record to overcome for a sequel), but it is still in a qualitatively different situation than those examples. If it's really good and again represents groundbreaking special effects, it has the potential to do gangbusters. It could make insane numbers in China alone.

 

Peace,

Mike

You are some rare specimen in here, you know that?

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

The one factor that makes Avatar 2 different from the rest of those examples is that it will be released 11 years after the original, rather than in the span of a few years after the original was released. We've seen that sequels released much later sometimes benefit from "nostalgia", or pent up demand, or intangible factors related to not being a "direct sequel" planned and released soon after the original.

 

Additionally, though Avatar 2 won't benefit from 3D in the same way the original did, Avatar 2 will certainly benefit significantly from inflation and vastly expanded/improved box office markets like China.

 

All this being said, Avatar 2 is probably highly likely to follow your other examples (especially since the original is the highest grossing film worldwide by FAR, so that's a huge record to overcome for a sequel), but it is still in a qualitatively different situation than those examples. If it's really good and again represents groundbreaking special effects, it has the potential to do gangbusters. It could make insane numbers in China alone.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Great post but are you sure about that? I still dont think Avatar 2 is ever really coming out.

[ThomasNicole]

25 minutes ago, tawasal said:

The follow ups to movies that broke big records tend to fall/drop from their previous outings. 

 

Jurassic Park > The Lost World 

Avengers > Age of Ultron

The Force Awakens > The Last Jedi

Spider-Man > Spider-Man 2

The Dark Knight > The Dark Knight Rises

The Phantom Menace > Attack of the Clones

Star Wars > The Empire Strikes Back 

 

 

Avatar sequel to follow next.

in USA it will drop [probably around $ 500 - 550M]

WW? nah, China should compensate the drops around the world

 

for Avatar 2, right now i'm thinking

$ 525M DOM [A1 - $ 760M DOM]

$ 1.3B OS-Ch [A1 - $ 1.8B OS-Ch]

$ 1B China [A1 - $ 200M China]

 

So, $ 2.82B worldwide for Avatar 2 [Avatar made $ 2.78B]

it will drop hard everywhere for sure, except for China, and this makes Avatar 2 different from the other examples

but Avatar 2 > Avatar 3 will probably enter on your list

Edited June 24, 2018 by ThomasNicole

[tawasal]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

'Ant-Man and the Wasp' Tracking for $75M Box-Office Debut

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/ant-man-wasp-tracking-75m-box-office-debut-1120085

That’s gonna be pretty low for the sequel I hope it at least cracks 100m OW. Didn’t JW2 beat tracking by 10m-20m?

[tawasal]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

in USA it will drop [probably around $ 500 - 550M]

WW? nah, China should compensate the drops around the world

 

for Avatar 2, right now i'm thinking

$ 525M DOM [A1 - $ 760M DOM]

$ 1.3B OS-Ch [A1 - $ 1.8B OS-Ch]

$ 1B China [A1 - $ 200M China]

 

So, $ 2.82B worldwide for Avatar 2 [Avatar made $ 2.78B]

it will drop hard everywhere for sure, except for China, and this makes Avatar 2 different from the other examples

I was also talking about the domestic box office, I have no idea where it will land on international numbers. The international audience sometimes seem to love what the Americans hate and vice versa so who the fuck knows.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, tawasal said:

That’s gonna be pretty low for the sequel I hope it at least cracks 100m OW. Didn’t JW2 beat tracking by 10m-20m?

This tracking is from last week, before the reactions / reviews and the last marketing push

I guess we could expect an increase in the next tracking... i think it will debut with $ 90 - 100M

 

p.s.: if i remember correctly, Doctor Strange is tracking at $ 60M at the same point and opened with $ 85M

[tawasal]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Great post but are you sure about that? I still dont think Avatar 2 is ever really coming out.

No one knows for sure except for James. But the date everywhere as of now is 2020.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, tawasal said:

I was also talking about the domestic box office, I have no idea where it will land on international numbers. The international audience sometimes seem to love what the Americans hate and vice versa so who the fuck knows.

oh my bad, i guess it was in general

so you're right, Avatar 2 will drop hard from the first in USA [except maybe if Cameron actually delivered a new technology to avoid that]

[tawasal]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This tracking is from last week, before the reactions / reviews and the last marketing push

I guess we could expect an increase in the next tracking... i think it will debut with $ 90 - 100M

 

p.s.: if i remember correctly, Doctor Strange is tracking at $ 60M at the same point and opened with $ 85M

When will the new one surface?

[ChipDerby]

I'm here to see someone eat crow.

[MikeQ]

10 minutes ago, tawasal said:

You are some rare specimen in here, you know that?

Is that a good thing? Heh.

 

Peace,

Mike

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, tawasal said:

When will the new one surface?

in the release week, probably

[MikeQ]

13 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Great post but are you sure about that? I still dont think Avatar 2 is ever really coming out.

Thanks. I recall reading that principle photography for the film started last September, and Zoe Saldana has commented that she has finished shooting her scenes (performance capture work). They're shooting Avatar 2 & 3 at the same time, I believe. All of this suggests the 2020 date will stick. I don't expect it to switch dates again.  

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[tawasal]

Just now, MikeQ said:

Is that a good thing? Heh.

 

Peace,

Mike

Definitely a good thing, normally when I post something that could hint at Avatar sequel possibly performing not as good as the original, someone touchy and aggressive responds. That was very good post, very insightful and civil.

[tawasal]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

in the release week, probably

Cool 

[tawasal]

How long do you guys think will go before the 1bn domestic barrier will be broken and who is your possible candidate to do so?