BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[RamblinRed]

Good opening weekend for FK. I thought anywhere from 135-155 was a likely range and expected lower end due to I2, but it opened closer to the high end and seened to hit I2 a little more.

 

Will be interesting to see its legs over the next 2 weeks and see if it can get to 400MM during its run. On both RT and IMDB its audience ratings are similar to Solo and lower than I2 and DP2.

 

[MovieMan89]

Will be interesting how much FK beats ALAN!'s admissions DOM. Seems 3D/PLF were unusually strong for it, so my guess is it needs at least 350 before it's ahead of ALAN!, maybe more. Should get there, but it's probably not gonna win by much. 

[Krissykins]

Holdover markets (apart from China) for Fallen Kingdom seem to have dropped about just 35% and under this weekend (third weekend). 

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

That -44% Sunday estimate from Disney was horseshit.

 

 

Shhh! It still has a 3 multi. FACTS!

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Though JP3 didnt deserve it. Fuck that movie

 

Well it's Disney, they often underestimate Sunday, as the others overestimate Sunday especially for OW.

 

About JW2 being overestimated by two millions, who should have seen that coming, as most Studios overestimated their films and Sunday drops get better the higher the Weekend is (IW, TFA, TLJ, JW, Av, BP, AoU, I2 dropped less than 20% on Sunday below that (and above JW2) just TDKR, TDK and RO dropped less than 20% on Sunday most dropped around 30%).

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited June 25, 2018 by sfran43

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Holdover markets (apart from China) for Fallen Kingdom seem to have dropped about just 35% and under this weekend (third weekend). 

Like DOFP it looks like it's benefiting in most markets by being the only big opener right before then during The World Cup - which is why I always thought it was a good date and smart move by Universal. 

[Empire]

17 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

This is a nice total for AIW. 

[sfran43]

 

[YM!]

38 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Oh and looool at no competition when an MCU film is opening in 10 days which will probably have great reviews and surprise , as it almost always happens , with it ow and its overall run. 

 

But at the same time, Ant Man is the only real threat in July and even then it has this week and 4th Of July to make money. Not denying it’ll have a sizable drop as PLFs and IMAX will be taken and it is direct and strong competition.

[MovieMan89]

DP2 will be the first movie to hit 2.5x out of ones that dropped 65%+ in their second weekend. 

[MikeQ]

The weekdays this week and next are going to be very fun to follow, given both Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will be making big money. Like the Christmas holidays, this can be a really fun time of year if big films are actually opening in close vicinity and raking in the summer time dollars.

 

Peace,

Mike

[YM!]

I’m really curious about Ant Man and The Wasp, I can see anywhere from $70M OW to $120M OW. 

[Thrylos 7]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m really curious about Ant Man and The Wasp, I can see anywhere from $70M OW to $120M OW. 

85-110 is my range. Yours is a bit too....wide no ? 

[Brainbug]

Ant-Man imo is coming for that 100M.

[Pure Spirit]

I think the excellent BO results show the JP franchise to be somewhat review-proof. And the ending of the movie actually made me interested in the next one, I could see it outperforming FK if the marketing is good and they replace all the godawful writers for FK.

[MovieMan89]

AMATW will almost surely open between 80-105, but I have no idea where in that range. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

85-110 is my range. Yours is a bit too....wide no ? 

It’s admittedly wise but I really don’t know for this one. On the very low end, this is the first time in unadjusted history two $145M+ openers have opened back to back and AMATW although a week apart from both films still can have some effect. On the high end, if everything kicks into overdrive, especially and mainly marketing (reviews are no problem, should be in the 80s on RT at worst, trailers have been solid, the Marvel brand is stronger than ever) along with presales, I can see it surprising and doing big.

[filmlover]

Too bad The Nun didn't stay in the summer and move up to this upcoming weekend or we could've had 9 consecutive weeks of $30M+ openers between the second weekend of June and the first weekend of August.

[Thrylos 7]

1 minute ago, Pure Spirit said:

I think the excellent BO results show the JP franchise to be somewhat review-proof. And the ending of the movie actually made me interested in the next one, I could see it outperforming FK if the marketing is good and they replace all the godawful writers for FK.

Nothing is really review-proof esp. in the U.S market. Bad reviews eventually hurt a franchise, at least in the U.S. Transformers is a good example of that and JW is heading that way fast, let’s not forget that we are talking about a potential almost 300 million drop from the first film in the U.S.

[Pure Spirit]

7 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Nothing is really review-proof esp. in the U.S market. Bad reviews eventually hurt a franchise, at least in the U.S. Transformers is a good example of that and JW is heading that way fast, let’s not forget that we are talking about a potential almost 300 million drop from the first film in the U.S.

You're right of course, I just expected FK to do worse opening weekend than it did. It does share a lot in common with Transformers in that respect. I think for JW to continue, the third installment is going to need some smarter writing, hopefully by people who have actually seen humans interact in real life before.