BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Moviefanatic]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

I will admit though that Black Panthers gross starts to annoy me greatly. For gods sake, i want to see that 700M number.

Same here! My box office OCD hates seeing 699 million 

[Webslinger]

Huge weekend for Jurassic World, even if it did fall 28% from the previous film's opening weekend. (It's kinda funny that the follow-up opens "only" to a number that would have been seen as a big win for the previous Jurassic World heading into its own opening weekend.) It didn't have nearly as good of a promotional hook, it didn't have pent-up nostalgia to exploit, and - and this is easily the biggest factor in its fall - the previous film over-performed to such a massively unexpected degree that a tumble was all-but-inevitable for the sequel. Legs probably won't be as strong as they were last time out thanks to what seems like less enthusiastic (though not bad) word-of-mouth, so $400 million domestic could be in play. It's not the grand slam its predecessor was, but it's far from a loss for all involved.

 

Incredibles 2 had a strong second weekend, even if it didn't soar as high as some of us hoped it could. Even with middling reviews and less hype than its predecessor, Fallen Kingdom clearly grabbed most of the moviegoing public's attention and snagged at least a few viewers that may otherwise have added to Incredibles 2's coffers. Even in the face of Jurassic World, it still posted the biggest second weekend ever for Pixar (and, by extension, for any animated film - though Shrek 2's three-day Memorial Day ticket sales in 2004 were substantially higher), will continue to put up big business during the week, and should benefit from a lack of competition next weekend. It won't ultimately have a crazy multiplier, but there's no need to sound an alarm on it for this hold. 

 

Ocean's 8 recovered nicely after last weekend's large drop. It topped the $100 million milestone and should be able to legs its way out to at least $125 million domestically.

 

Tag held okay. With a leggy performance from here on out, it could have a shot at a domestic total in the ballpark of $50 million.

 

Deadpool 2 has had impressive staying power from its third week onward.  It should ultimately land around $315-320 million.

 

Solo got wrecked in the face of the double-whammy of Jurassic World's arrival and the reverse effects of last Sunday's strong Father's Day boost. Nevertheless, the fact that it has surpassed $200 million domestically at least saves it from a further level of ignominy.

 

Hereditary didn't do too badly in the face of such large theater loss. It doesn't have enough gas in the tank to top Lady Bird as A24's top grosser to date, but it's still looking at a solid total in the low-to-mid-40s.

 

Superfly got hit hard. It should at least clear $20 million, which will make it a small winner against its relatively modest budget.

 

Barring any re-release shenanigans, Avengers should be looking at a domestic total in the $675-680 million range. With such few offerings on deck for next weekend, it could also squeeze out one more weekend in the top ten. If it does, it would join the rare and recent club of films to spend ten weekends in the top ten while not hitting a 3.0 multiplier (the other members: Beauty and the Beast and Spider-Man: Homecoming).

 

Won't You Be My Neighbor? is performing nicely in limited release. I continue to hope that it can expand well and find a place as low-key counter-programming.

[Webslinger]

Re: Black Panther's slow crawl to $700 million: now that A Wrinkle in Time has been dragged past $100 million, I'm guessing Disney will probably give Black Panther a big boost with Ant-Man and Wasp in a couple weekends.

[tawasal]

9 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

Re: Black Panther's slow crawl to $700 million: now that A Wrinkle in Time has been dragged past $100 million, I'm guessing Disney will probably give Black Panther a big boost with Ant-Man and Wasp in a couple weekends.

Much more deserving than that. AWiT might just end up being the most obvious fudge ever, it just about edges June 2009 fudging incident.

[MikeQ]

56 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

How many times in history have two movies been over $80M in the same weekend?  

Only once before (so now twice, including this weekend), with the original Jurassic World's second weekend and Inside Out's opening:

 

June 19-21, 2016

• Jurassic World — 106.6M
• Inside Out — 90.4M

If we lower the bar to two films over $70M on the same weekend, it is still only those two weekends (Jurassic World/Inside Out and now Jurassic World 2/Incredibles 2).

 

There are four other times in history when two films have made over $60M each on the same weekend, and another five times in history when two films have made over $50M each on the same weekend. That's it.

 

60M+

 

June 21-23, 2013

• Monsters University — 82.4M
• World War Z — 66.4M

Nov 29-December 1, 2013

• The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M
• Frozen — 67.4M

May 28-30, 2004

• Shrek 2 — 72.2M
• The Day After Tomorrow — 68.7M

December 25-27, 2009

• Avatar — 75.6M
• Sherlock Holmes — 62.3M

 

50M+

 

May 25-27, 2007

• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End — 114.7M
• Shrek the Third — 53.0M

May 10-12, 2013

• Iron Man 3 — 72.5M
• The Great Gatsby — 50.1M

June 27-29, 2008

• Wall-E — 63.1M
• Wanted — 50.9M

June 8-10, 2012

• Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M
• Prometheus — 51.1M

June 26-28, 2015

• Jurassic World — 54.5M
• Inside Out — 52.3M

Peace,

Mike

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Much more deserving than that. AWiT might just end up being the most obvious fudge ever, it just about edges June 2009 fudging incident.

No love for the TF4 fudge?

[Moviefanatic]

Watching IO and JW battle each other every weekend was fun to watch  

[Webslinger]

Honestly, the Spectre fudge still feels like the most hilariously shameless one in recent memory.

 

That said, the Revenge of the Fallen fudge would have been even more epic if the film had opened on a Friday and Paramount had pulled the "missing Puerto Rico numbers" shenanigans to propel it ahead of The Dark Knight's weekend record. It undoubtedly would have come close had it opened on Friday and they showed that they had no problem with fudging to push it pass a milestone for the five-day opening, so... 

 

Seriously, just imagine how heated the forums would have gotten over that one!

[aabattery]

Year	Gross*	2018 % change	2017 % change	2016 % change	2015 % change	2014 % change	2013 % change
2018	$5,929.7	-	+8.9%	+10.6%	+11.8%	+18.8%	+18.1%
2017	$5,446.4	-8.2%	-	+1.6%	+2.7%	+9.2%	+8.5%
2016	$5,362.8	-9.6%	-1.5%	-	+1.1%	+7.5%	+6.8%
2015	$5,305.5	-10.5%	-2.6%	-1.1%	-	+6.3%	+5.7%
2014	$4,989.6	-15.9%	-8.4%	-7.0%	-6.0%	-	-0.6%
2013	$5,021.1	-15.3%	-7.8%	-6.4%	-5.4%	+0.6%	-

 

The 1-2 punch of I2/JW:FK has really given this year a leg up. Now to see if it can hold that lead.

[tawasal]

The follow ups to movies that broke big records tend to fall/drop from their previous outings. 

 

Jurassic Park > The Lost World 

Avengers > Age of Ultron

The Force Awakens > The Last Jedi

Spider-Man > Spider-Man 2

The Dark Knight > The Dark Knight Rises

The Phantom Menace > Attack of the Clones

Star Wars > The Empire Strikes Back 

 

 

Avatar sequel to follow next.

[tawasal]

7 minutes ago, cookie said:

No love for the TF4 fudge?

Why would there be?

[tawasal]

9 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Only once before (so now twice, including this weekend), with the original Jurassic World's second weekend and Inside Out's opening:

 

June 19-21, 2016

• Jurassic World — 106.6M
• Inside Out — 90.4M

If we lower the bar to two films over $70M on the same weekend, it is still only those two weekends (Jurassic World/Inside Out and now Jurassic World 2/Incredibles 2).

 

There are four other times in history when two films have made over $60M each on the same weekend, and another five times in history when two films have made over $50M each on the same weekend. That's it.

 

60M+

 

June 21-23, 2013

• Monsters University — 82.4M
• World War Z — 66.4M

Nov 29-December 1, 2013

• The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M
• Frozen — 67.4M

May 28-30, 2004

• Shrek 2 — 72.2M
• The Day After Tomorrow — 68.7M

December 25-27, 2009

• Avatar — 75.6M
• Sherlock Holmes — 62.3M

 

50M+

 

May 25-27, 2007

• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End — 114.7M
• Shrek the Third — 53.0M

May 10-12, 2013

• Iron Man 3 — 72.5M
• The Great Gatsby — 50.1M

June 27-29, 2008

• Wall-E — 63.1M
• Wanted — 50.9M

June 8-10, 2012

• Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M
• Prometheus — 51.1M

June 26-28, 2015

• Jurassic World — 54.5M
• Inside Out — 52.3M

Peace,

Mike

But never opening the same weekend though, weird. 

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Year	Gross*	2018 % change	2017 % change	2016 % change	2015 % change	2014 % change	2013 % change
2018	$5,929.7	-	+8.9%	+10.6%	+11.8%	+18.8%	+18.1%
2017	$5,446.4	-8.2%	-	+1.6%	+2.7%	+9.2%	+8.5%
2016	$5,362.8	-9.6%	-1.5%	-	+1.1%	+7.5%	+6.8%
2015	$5,305.5	-10.5%	-2.6%	-1.1%	-	+6.3%	+5.7%
2014	$4,989.6	-15.9%	-8.4%	-7.0%	-6.0%	-	-0.6%
2013	$5,021.1	-15.3%	-7.8%	-6.4%	-5.4%	+0.6%	-

 

The 1-2 punch of I2/JW:FK has really given this year a leg up. Now to see if it can hold that lead.

With a shaky slate for the rest of the summer and no guaranteed mega-grosser this coming holiday that seems unlikely.

[tawasal]

Never mind Madagascar and Prometheus opened the same weekend.

[filmlover]

Great opening for Jurassic World. All the doom and gloom leading up in the few days before its release ended up being for naught.

 

Also a solid drop for Incredibles 2 which should hold well next weekend with only two openers that look to open very modestly coming out.

 

Ocean's 8 is gonna finish with around $130M. Tag will land in the $50-55M range, which is solid.

 

Hereditary is gonna come really close to becoming A24's #1 grosser ever so it's already won and then some. mother! 2.0 this was not.

 

Won't You Be My Neighbor? is doing really well. Documentaries are on fire so far this year between this and RBG; have to imagine Whitney will follow suit in July.

[tawasal]

Just now, cookie said:

With a shaky slate for the rest of the summer and no guaranteed mega-grosser this coming holiday that seems unlikely.

Jumanji 2 and TGSM were never guaranteed mega grossers, but they still managed to hit 404m and 174m respectively. Something is definitely hiding in 2018 holiday season that could surprise its way to huge numbers.

[grey ghost]

Any Ant-Man 2 tracking available?

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Jumanji 2 and TGSM were never guaranteed mega grossers, but they still managed to hit 404m and 174m respectively. Something is definitely hiding in 2018 holiday season that could surprise its way to huge numbers.

They made most of those grosses after 2017 had already ended. There's nothing in 2018 that I see would hit it big and quick like a Star Wars movie.

Edited June 24, 2018 by cookie

[tawasal]

Just now, cookie said:

They made most of those grosses after 2017 had already ended. There's nothing that would hit it big and quick like a Star Wars movie this year.

Their contributions will be better than nothing. Even if it’s 10 days or 2 weeks or a month before the year is over could tilt the edge to 2018 or match 2017.

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

With a shaky slate for the rest of the summer and no guaranteed mega-grosser this coming holiday that seems unlikely.

 

I don't think it's tooooooo bad. Won't be able to match SLOP and Squad of 2016 but I think Ant-Man/MI6/Christopher Robin should all be decent performers at the very least, and some of the smaller stuff should still do fine enough. Add on the holdovers of I2 and JW:FK and the Summer should come out fairly nicely.

 

December is gonna be a bit of a mess but they've thrown so much shit at the wall there that I'm sure something will stick.