Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[fabiopazzo2]

180M OW

440 DoM tot

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

180M OW

440 DoM tot

 

$230M OW
$590M DOM 

[AnDr3s]

at least 5$

[jedijake]

Not sure what they are expecting the OW to be, but here are some of the recent multipliers for pre-Thanksgiving movies:

 

Thor Ragnorak: 2.57

Thor Dark World: 2.40

Doctor Strange: 2.73

Catching Fire: 2.68

Fanstastic Beasts: 3.14

Crimes of Grinderwald: 2.56

 

Dark World was an outlier, but we all know what people think of it. With ANY kind of positive WOM or good reviews, BPWF should have at least a 2.6X multiplier. Predicting a box office run without predicting an OW is just plain stupid.

 

This "should" have an OW of $180 million (whatever "should" means) and "should" at least make $450 million domestic.

 

Again, I don't know what the criteria for "should" is so maybe it's just my own.

 

Sorry, this is the most excited I've been for any movie since TFA. And I am expecting to like it a LOT more.

Edited October 1, 2022 by jedijake

[Menor the Destroyer]

Veteran's day will frontload things a bit. Right now thinking around 270/700, will be satisfied with anything at @Wolverpool XXR's numbers or higher though.

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Not sure what they are expecting the OW to be, but here are some of the recent multipliers for pre-Thanksgiving movies:

 

Thor Ragnorak: 2.57

Thor Dark World: 2.40

Doctor Strange: 2.73

Catching Fire: 2.68

Fanstastic Beasts: 3.14

Crimes of Grinderwald: 2.56

 

Dark World was an outlier, but we all know what people think of it. With ANY kind of positive WOM or good reviews, BPWF should have at least a 2.6X multiplier. Predicting a box office run without predicting an OW is just plain stupid.

 

This "should" have an OW of $180 million (whatever "should" means) and "should" at least make $450 million domestic.

 

Again, I don't know what the criteria for "should" is so maybe it's just my own.

 

Sorry, this is the most excited I've been for any movie since TFA. And I am expecting to like it a LOT more.

 

It's very possible that BPWF will be more front loaded than all of those examples you gave, even if WOM is good/great. The MCU initial demand is now essentially on par with Star Wars (at least for sequels). While my expectation is 230 x 2.6 or so, I wouldn't be shocked if it was 250 x 2.3-2.4 either. 

[jedijake]

16 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

It's very possible that BPWF will be more front loaded than all of those examples you gave, even if WOM is good/great. The MCU initial demand is now essentially on par with Star Wars (at least for sequels). While my expectation is 230 x 2.6 or so, I wouldn't be shocked if it was 250 x 2.3-2.4 either. 

You think the OW will be THAT high?

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

You think the OW will be THAT high?

 

Yes. I think there are still a lot of variables but I would be surprised if it was under $210M at the least. On the upper end, I can see something around NWH. 

[Saul Goodman]

The super late marketing strategy for this one is...interesting.

[jedijake]

6 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

The super late marketing strategy for this one is...interesting.

Not a whole lot different than No Way Home. Actually, the full trailer is coming out sooner than NWH. It's just that NWH seemed to have more free marketing in the way of word of mouth. Plus, the marketing has been MUCH better than ThorLT. There's been "stuff" out there (photos, stories, toy leaks). It just doesn't have the constant discussion that NWH had.

 

One thing to realize with the box office is that it will have a good hold in its third weekend due to Thanksgiving holiday. And the mid-week should be excellent that week.

Edited October 1, 2022 by jedijake

[Menor the Destroyer]

We are talking about a sequel to a movie that is like 840 adjusted. The OW should be pretty massive if the quality is there.

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, Saul Goodman said:

The super late marketing strategy for this one is...interesting.

 

Well, they likely didn't know what kind of movie/story they even had until late in the game on this one, then how it all comes together through editing, etc.  This one was reconceived/rushed from numerous perspectives and dealt with significant star-performance issues, but Coogler has more than proven his chops so far...I'm willing to bet he's delivered here, too.    

Edited October 1, 2022 by Macleod

[jedijake]

If this movie gets good critical reviews and has a monstrous OW with a decent multiplier, they NEED to at least offer Coogler the keys to Avengers Secret Wars.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

If this movie gets good critical reviews and has a monstrous OW with a decent multiplier, they NEED to at least offer Coogler the keys to Avengers Secret Wars.

 

I guarantee you that discussion has already happened. Whether he's interested in it or accepted it, is another question. 

[jedijake]

I wonder if we'll get an official poster tomorrow ahead of the big Monday events.

[fabiopazzo2]

5 hours ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

$230M OW
$590M DOM 

No way it will Miss 600M with 230M ow

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

No way it will Miss 600M with 230M ow

 

You have it at 440/180 which is worse legs 590/230 lol 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

You have it at 440/180 which is worse legs 590/230 lol 

But the 200 threshold is magic, demonstrably impossible to miss 600 from it  

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

But the 200 threshold is magic, demonstrably impossible to miss 600 from it  

 

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

Just the facts ma’am