Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

That wasn't a trailer. It was an actual clip from the movie (about 3 minutes worth) followed by select scenes from the first teaser (with maybe an added quote or two). And it was about 3 and a half minutes.

It wasn't, it had new footage. But yeah way too short to release as the official trailer (which I do think they need since the teaser was pretty vague about the actual plot). 

[jedijake]

Yeah and Sony does things VERY differently. The first "teaser" for No Way Home was nearly 3 minutes long and was much more of an extensive trailer than anything else. When the "official trailer" came out a month before release, it was more of a second full-length trailer.

 

The official BPWF trailer will pack a punch for sure. Especially if tickets go on sale. I guess no advertisement during NFL games means that we won't have to wait until MNF. Tomorrow morning for sure!

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Showtimes are posted but not live. It’s definitely happening today or tomorrow.

[jedijake]

I guess they're afraid that a big fanfare about tickets going on sale will crash servers! lol

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

17 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I guess they're afraid that a big fanfare about tickets going on sale will crash servers! lol

[Cooper Legion]

So basic expectations settings:

NWH ~18M prev sales first 24 hr, ~51M prev 

DS2 ~ 9M prev sales first 24hr, ~36M prev

 

Geomean of these would be 43M prev, roughly 12.5M 24hr. 2:1 weighted toward DS2 would be ~11M, 40.5M.    
 

I would like to see at least 40M for 220-240ish, so will be looking for $$~+20% of DS2 with anything more being gravy. On optimistic side I think one could argue for matching DS2 x4 24:final, in which case 10M/+10%ish could be okay. Then throw in the longer window here than for those 2 and even par with DS2 first 24hr could easily turn into a top 5 OW.  
 

So:

<.75MoM24hr: awful

<MoM24 hr: unhappy

+0-15%: alright, wait and see

+15-30%: great

>1.3MoM24hr: spectacular 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

Just got my tickets through the AMC website! 

[jedijake]

Gonna predict a $180-$200 million OW

Domestic: $470-$500 million 

Looking at a slightly better than TFA-to-TLJ drop.

 

Not due to the same reception that TLJ got, but rather that it's not being released on a holiday AND that the Christmas holiday will cut into it due to AvatarWOW.

 

I know it's a big range, but until we get some data, I think it's a fair start.

 

And what the hell @Wolverpool XXRthey started selling them without any notice? WTF are they even doing? Is this a new Chapek style of marketing directive?

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by jedijake

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

55 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

So:

<.75MoM24hr: awful

<MoM24 hr: unhappy

+0-15%: alright, wait and see

+15-30%: great

>1.3MoM24hr: spectacular 

Both NWH and MOM had announcements the day before about tickets going on sale, no? Idk that a 24HR comparison will work in that case.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

Both NWH and MOM had announcements the day before about tickets going on sale, no? Idk that a 24HR comparison will work in that case.

It should even out by 24hr. Maybe much less first hour rush but eventually the word will get out.

[jedijake]

Maybe they are trying to trickle the system a bit, starting with one major chain at a time.

 

@Wolverpool XXRif it's not that they are avoiding a crash, then why are they taking this approach? As far as I can see, only AMC is selling tickets right now.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Maybe they are trying to trickle the system a bit, starting with one major chain at a time.

 

@Wolverpool XXRif it's not that they are avoiding a crash, then why are they taking this approach? As far as I can see, only AMC is selling tickets right now.

 

 

Idk, I’m not Feige lol. They did basically the same thing for Endgame (didn’t announce it but released a trailer and tickets at the same time). 
 

My guess is the trailer comes out at some point today with “tickets on sale” attached to it.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Wolverpool XXR

[jedijake]

Yeah, at some point. Like right now!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=_Z3QKkl1WyM&feature=emb_logo

 

[Saul Goodman]

 

[fabiopazzo2]

Visually is really great

 

i prefer The first teaser

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

 

[Deep Wang]

Had to go Dolby at GP30 since Regal's Imax is being renovated.  I'm guessing they will have it ready by then, but can't sell tickets till they know for sure lol.

[Gavin Feng]

So it's another assembly movie.

 

Considering the performances of recent assembly titles, I would say the WOM for this one may not be quite positive.

[Factcheck]

I think budget of this movie should be atleast $250M, if main cast was paid like Thor L&T budget would have been $300M.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

So it's another assembly movie.

 

Considering the performances of recent assembly titles, I would say the WOM for this one may not be quite positive.

it had a troubled production if I remember correctly